High Wind Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

356 
WWUS74 KMAF 072027
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
227 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019

TXZ271-080100-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-191108T0100Z/
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains NP and Pine Springs
127 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains in Texas, mainly 
  Guadalupe Pass.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds could make driving difficult for motorists driving 
high profile vehicles such as campers, vans, and tractor 
trailers. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/maf

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the region
early this morning, as the southern stream shortwave responsible
for the unsettled weather of the past 24 hours continues its
northeastward trek across northern New Mexico. There is still an
impressive fetch of subtropical moisture in the southwesterly flow
aloft, maintaining anomalously high precipitable water values
across the region. However, at the surface, a big change is on the
way as a strong cold front continues to push southward, now
edging into Southeast New Mexico and nearing the northern Permian
Basin. Behind this front, temperatures are falling quickly, and a
3-hr pressure rise of nearly 4mb is evident across eastern New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle on latest MSAS analysis. This front
will continue pushing south this morning, expected to reach I-20
by 11Z-12Z (5AM-6AM CDT), and make it to the Rio Grande by
lunchtime. The front will act as a focus for additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms through the day, with the
aforementioned shortwave not expected to progress east of the
region until this evening. Thus, isentropic upglide as well as
lift associated with the passing shortwave could maintain
precipitation into tonight. The front will also be accompanied by
gusty northeasterly winds, and while winds will remain below
advisory criteria across lower elevations, strong gap winds are
expected through Guadalupe Pass from later this morning through
early this evening. Thus, the High Wind Watch for Guadalupe Pass
has been upgraded to a Warning. Temperatures this morning,
especially across the northern half of the area, are likely to be
the warmest temperatures of the day, with cold advection behind
the front leading to falling temperatures through the afternoon.
Further south, toward the Rio Grande, temperatures will have a bit
more time to warm into the 60s and 70s before the front moves
through around midday. Otherwise, morning temperatures in the 30s
and 40s north to 50s across the Trans Pecos will gradually fall
through tonight, with conditions feeling even colder due to the
northeasterly breeze. Clouds look to stick around through tonight,
which will keep temperatures from falling too much, though lows
in the lower to middle 30s look likely for much of the area, with
40s to the south. Rain showers could linger through tonight,
mainly along and south of I-10.

In the wake of today's front, a cool, drier day is expected on
Friday, with below normal temperatures in the lower to middle 50s
for most Friday afternoon. By Saturday, southerly flow will
return, leading to a warming trend that will carry through the
weekend, and temperatures rebounding to near, or even slightly
above normal in the middle to upper 70s on Sunday. The next strong
cold front is progged to move through the region on Sunday night,
paving the way for another day of falling temperatures on Monday,
along with very cold temperatures Monday night and Tuesday. Lows
Monday night look to drop into the 20s for all but portions of the
Big Bend Area and the Rio Grande Valley, with a light freeze
possible for these locations early Tuesday morning. Then, Tuesday,
much of the area looks to remain in the 40s through the
afternoon. Precipitation chances also return with this next front
Monday through Tuesday, and while the details still need to be
ironed out, there does look to be the potential for some wintry
precipitation south of I-20 Monday night/early Tuesday morning, so
stay tuned. By Wednesday/Thursday, dry and warmer conditions are
expected, as temperatures begin to moderate back into the 50s and
lower 60s as southerly surface flow returns to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  35  53  41 /  80  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  37  55  39 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  43  56  46 /  60  40  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  38  52  44 /  70  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  34  50  42 /  40  10  10  10
Hobbs                          41  33  53  37 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          59  35  52  41 /  50  40  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           45  35  53  41 /  80  20   0   0
Odessa                         46  35  53  41 /  70  10   0   0
Wink                           51  37  55  39 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

44/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-080800-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
200 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 /100 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today. Any storms that do develop will be
accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and
brief, heavy rainfall.

A High Wind Warning is in effect today for Guadalupe Pass.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1042 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

TXZ061-062-068-069-070545-
Midland TX-Crane TX-Ector TX-Upton TX-
1042 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ECTOR...SOUTHERN
MIDLAND...NORTHEASTERN CRANE AND NORTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 PM CST...

At 1041 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of West Odessa, or 16 miles northwest of Crane, moving
east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasant Farms and rural areas just south of Pleasant Farms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 10256 3170 10256 3175 10189 3143 10195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 276DEG 26KT 3162 10246

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1050 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

TXZ061-062-070530-
Midland TX-Ector TX-
1050 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ECTOR AND WESTERN
MIDLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CST...

At 1049 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Odessa, or near Odessa, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, Midland International Air and Space Port, West Odessa,
Warfield and Odessa Schlemeyer Field.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 108 and 131.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 10255 3194 10256 3208 10226 3188 10211
      3172 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 273DEG 33KT 3187 10244

49