High Wind Warning 24, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

310 
WWUS74 KMAF 171945
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...

.An upper level storm system moving through the Rockies has resulted
in high winds through the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains this 
afternoon. These winds will subside after sunset. 

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-180115-
/O.EXT.KMAF.HW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-190518T0200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Guadalupe Mountains NP, 
and Pine Springs
145 PM MDT Fri May 17 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Until 8 PM MDT this evening.

* WINDS...West 30 to 45 mph with gusts to around 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Aviation interests may experience localized but 
  extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows, if flying in 
  the vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.

&&

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
341 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Deep mixing today will push dryline out into the Low Rolling
Plains, but dryline will hang up across ern Pecos Co/Lower Trans
Pecos-Big Bend. An isold tstm or 2 will likely develop there
between 21Z-24Z. Dryline will then retreat to near a Lamesa-Wink-
Pecos line by 03Z and there is consensus that storms will develop
on dryline in wrn PB around 06Z as low-level jet develops.
Dewpoints will be exceptionally high (U60s) east of the dryline
and NAM12 forecast soundings show that ML CAPEs will surge much
higher (3000 J/KG) by 03Z. By 06Z thick CAPEs around -20C support
the idea of accelerating updrafts capable of supporting very large
hail. 0-1km SRH of 120 m2/s2 is supportive of tornadoes, even
moreso with deviant storm motion. From our perspective along and n
of I-20 is the most favored area for severe storms. We will
upgrade to High Wind Warning for Guadalupe/Delaware Mtns as WSW 7h
winds increase to around 35kts by 15Z. Windy and much drier
conditions will follow for Sat in wake of the Pacific cold front
with temps only a few degrees cooler, near normal. Dry air will
hold in place and will make for a cool Sunday morning with temps
widespread in the 50s. Low-level thermal ridge will reform n-s
along/near TX/NM state line extending into the Trans Pecos as mid-
level pattern reloads and as such Sunday PM will be on the the
hot side. There will again be the possibility of nocturnal
convection early Monday AM when dryline will have retreated into
SE NM-Big Bend. A second stronger shrtwv trof is likely Mon PM
with more severe storms in the ern half or so of CWFA, above
normal temps west of the dryline. Dry air will push out east on
Tue and this will be a down day wrt to convective potential.
Dryline will quickly return west on Wed and a mid-level will low
drop into the the intermountain west. GFS has the low close to E
NM/W TX and not sure how if storms will hold off? In either
solution the mid-level flow is strongly backed which usually
portends tstms. More dryline storms are expected Thur in strong sw
flow aloft and probably Friday too.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire wx concerns today across parts of SE NM that did
get rain yesterday. Winds of 20-30 mph and min RH of 10-15 pct
will be offset by ERC below the 50th percentile, same for GDP
Mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  63  84  54 /  20  70  10   0
Carlsbad                       87  58  84  54 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         90  67  90  61 /  20  50  10   0
Fort Stockton                  89  61  84  57 /  10  50   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  56  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  56  82  51 /   0  20   0   0
Marfa                          87  52  80  48 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  62  85  56 /  10  60   0   0
Odessa                         89  61  84  55 /  10  50   0   0
Wink                           90  59  85  54 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-171915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019 /105 PM MDT Thu May 16 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and overnight. Any
storms that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning,
small hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall. A storm or two
could become severe, and capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and night. Any severe storms will be capable of producing large hail
and a few tornadoes.

Strong westerly winds are possible in the Guadalupe Mountains
Friday. A High Wind Watch is in effect.

There is also an increased probability of severe thunderstorms
Monday and Monday evening across the central and eastern Permian
Basin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon or evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
905 PM MDT Thu May 16 2019

NMZ028-033-034-170345-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
905 PM MDT Thu May 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL EDDY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

At 904 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Loving, or 16 miles east of Carlsbad, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halfway.

LAT...LON 3228 10403 3245 10404 3272 10347 3231 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 242DEG 23KT 3238 10395