Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

534 
WGUS74 KMAF 240114
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
814 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

TXC033-240245-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190924T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Borden TX-
814 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
BORDEN COUNTY...

At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms have produced 
heavy rain across the warned area. Though rainfall is diminishing, 
flooding may continue. Up to three inches of rain have already 
fallen. 

This includes the following low water crossing locations CR 116
crossing Buck Canyon Creek, FM Rd 1610 crossing Bull Draw, and P-2171
crossing Tobacco Creek tributary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 10118 3262 10118 3270 10169 3290 10169
      3296 10156 3296 10134

$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There is -SHRA in the vicinity of MAF, FST, PEQ but is not
expected to impact the TAF sites. TS in the current MAF
observation is believed to be in error and not indicated in the
TAF. VFR conditions and light southeast winds should continue.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...

On this first day of fall, the synoptic pattern is actually
beginning to resemble it somewhat.  WV imagery shows a flat,
elongated ridge covering the srn CONUS/Mexico, but a closed upper
trough is digging thru CA/NV, and forecast to set up shop over Baja
del Norte by 18Z Tuesday.  This will put West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico under progressive SW flow aloft into the extended.

Closer to home, the 12Z KMAF raob came in w/a saturated column thru
300mb, and a pwat of 1.77", which is about 3 std devs above normal
and near climatological maximum.  This fetch of moisture can also be
seen on WV imagery, partially entraining tropical moisture from T.S.
Mario off the Baja coast.  This all coincides with a rich, low-level
theta-e ridge oriented almost zonally across the area.

Later this afternoon, a shortwave is forecast to move NE thru the
area, favoring convective initiation from the Big Bend thru the
upper Colorado Rvr Valley. The main concern will be heavy rainfall,
exacerbated by saturated soils and elevated flows.  We'll emphasize
this in the HWO and grids.  This activity will continue thru Tuesday
as the closed trough digs south toward Baja. Wed/Thu, the focus will
shift to the higher terrain as shortwaves calve off the trough and
move north into the region from Mexico. Thu afternoon, models are in
good agreement in lifting and opening the trough and moving it to
the Four Corners by 18Z Fri, after which it will phase back into SW
flow aloft.  A more westerly low-lvl wind component will push theta-
e moisture east on Fri, providing for a relatively dry weekend as a
secondary trough digs into the Rockies.

Throughout this all, temperatures will continue on a persistent
above-normal plateau in the lwr 90sF most locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  90  70  92 /  60  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       66  92  67  93 /  20  30  20  20
Dryden                         73  93  72  95 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  68  88  68  90 /  30  40  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  83  63  83 /  20  40  30  40
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          60  82  59  83 /  40  60  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  70  92 /  50  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  93 /  40  20  10  10
Wink                           69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-241845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
145 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019 /1245 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico this afternoon into early evening. Brief, locally heavy rain
is possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low, however
storms are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland