Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

645 
WGUS74 KMAF 131755
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019

TXC243-131930-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190513T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
1255 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 1253 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated rain across the warned area. 
Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly or be ongoing.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bloys Camp, McDonald Observatory and Black Mountain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 10389 3045 10401 3051 10428 3085 10424

$$

80

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TS is currently seen on radar and will affect the TAF
sites throughout the day, with the best chances at PEQ and FST
this afternoon. TS is currently approaching MAF and has been
accounted for with this issuance with more activity possible
after 18Z. Confidence in timing is low so will wait till later to
insert it into the MAF TAF. VFR conditions are expected outside of
TS/SHRA.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Upper low currently over northern Chihuahua will move east today
into extreme west Texas and be centered in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains by early this evening. The upper low is then
forecast to exit the southeastern Permian Basin by Tuesday
morning. Lift and diffluence will increase today as the upper
low approaches and showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage. Some of the storms could produce hail and damaging winds
especially along the path of the upper system from the Davis
Mountains eastward into the lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas
as wind shear increases in the steep lapse rates and cold air
aloft. The heaviest rainfall should also be along the track of the
upper system from the Davis Mountains eastward into the lower
Trans Pecos. Expecting only the potential for local flooding as
precipitable water values will not be significantly above normal
with the upper low moving into a post frontal airmass. The
precipitation should come to an end late this evening as the
system departs.

Looks like quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday with warming
temperatures to near normal by Wednesday as upper ridging moves
over the forecast area.

Another Pacific system will take aim on the region late Thursday
and Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across western section
Thursday near the dryline and across mainly west Texas Friday
with the dryline/Pacific front. Temperatures are expected to be
near normal.

Next weekend looks dry at this time in zonal flow with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  55  80  62 /  50  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       74  53  81  54 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         78  59  83  64 /  70  50  10   0
Fort Stockton                  75  53  79  59 /  80  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  52  76  59 /  70  10   0   0
Hobbs                          70  50  79  54 /  50  20   0   0
Marfa                          71  44  77  46 /  70  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  55  80  59 /  60  40  10   0
Odessa                         74  54  79  60 /  60  40   0   0
Wink                           75  53  81  60 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-141030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
519 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019 /419 AM MDT Mon May 13 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage today
across the entire area. A few thunderstorms may become strong to
marginally severe with damaging winds and large hail possible.
Storms may also produce heavy rainfall which could lead to localized
flash flooding. Storm coverage will decrease later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible and local interest should stay
current with the latest weather forecast.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland