Wind Advisory 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
548 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAF Cycle

Scattered SHRA and a few TSRA are ongoing across the fcst region
with widespread low- to mid-level cloud cover. Conditions will
continue to remain at MVFR/IFR clgs and vis, with mostly SHRA
persisting over Cntrl/Ern AR through the remainder of Mon night
into early Tues. A cold front will enter from the NW around
27/03Z, bringing a sharp wind shift from Srly to Wrly with
sustained winds of 20 kts expected, and stronger gusts possible.
Additionally, have included WS groups at all terminals through
27/04Z. As the front moves across the state late in the period,
an upward trend in conditions towards VFR is expected with
clearing skies and modest W/Nwrly winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019)
Short Term...Tonight thru Thanksgiving Day...
The event we have been discussing for several days is now upon us.
Trof coming across the Rockies has spun up a vigorous surface low
across the Plains, which is making for a tight pressure gradient in
its vicinity. A surface cold front is making its way toward the
state, and will push thru the area overnight.

Considerable wind shear is present across the forecast area, with
relatively little instability in most areas. Surface-based CAPE is
virtually non-existent, but there are some pockets of elevated CAPE,
by my estimate there could be a few areas where the elevated CAPE
exceedes 500 j/kg. It should be noted that plenty of light rain and
drizzle has been falling across portions of the state today, and
some heavier rainfall bands are starting to show up across the
northwestern portions of the state, which is in line with what most
of the meso models have been showing today.

At the moment the convection is quite shallow, which is not
unexpected given the current thermodynamic profile. With midlevel
winds potentially exceeding 100 knots (especially across the north),
it's not hard to envision a weaker storm producing wind damage if
even a portion of that wind energy is able to translate to the
surface. As for the tornado threat, I could see a few weak tornadoes
spinning up later this evening into tonight in a QLCS-type event,
and these will be quite challenging to detect.

The front should push rapidly thru the state tonight, bringing
cooler and drier air to the state for tomorrow. Of course
Thanksgiving is looking to be wet, as a strong trof across the west
coast sets up a southwesterly flow aloft, with numerous shortwaves
moving thru the flow across the area.

Extended Term...Thursday Night thru Tuesday...
The long term period will begin with an upper level ridge axis just
east of the state, bringing southwesterly flow aloft to Arkansas.
With plenty of upper level moisture, disturbances in the flow will
develop widespread precipitation over the western and northern parts
of the state Thursday evening through Friday evening. Surface flow
will be southerly as well, bringing warm, moist air through the area
along with the precipitation. Highs Friday will be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s through the state, lows in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
We'll warm up to the mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday afternoon.

A cold front will move east through the state Saturday, as an upper
low tracks east through the northern plains region, aiding in more
organized and widespread precipitation across the central and
southern plains, covering the state by Saturday morning. The rain
will exit Sunday morning as the upper low exits to the east and an
upper level ridge builds into the region behind it, along with cold,
dry conditions. Temperatures Saturday night in the mid 30s in
northern Arkansas to the lower 40s in the southern part of the
state. Temperatures will cool into the early part of the week, with
highs in the 40s and 50s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s
to lower 30s Monday and Tuesday morning.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...GREEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
408 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
408 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with the
best chances for seeing thunderstorms across the southeast half
of the state. The timing for the majority of the thunderstorms is
late this afternoon through the night.

While the overall threat for seeing severe weather is expected to
remain low...a few strong storms could be seen. The best chances
for seeing any strong storms will be along and ahead of a cold
front that will push through the state late Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night. The primary concern will be strong and
gusty winds as these storms will be moving very quickly. While
the tornado chance is low, it can not be ignored.

Some breezy southerly winds will possible today before switching
to the west and northwest late tonight Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Expect winds of 10 to 20 mph...with gusts of 25 to over
30 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Breezy conditions will persist for a good part of Wednesday with
the winds diminishing in the afternoon.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected starting late
Wednesday night into Thursday...and are expected to persist into
the weekend. Several rounds of rainfall are forecast...with 2 to
3 inches of rain possible during this time frame. The heaviest
amounts are expected over the northwest half of the state...with
localized flooding possible in areas where the heaviest rainfall
occurs. While some thunderstorms will be possible later in the
week...the overall threat of severe weather will remain low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

ARZ013-014-023-031-262230-
Searcy AR-Stone AR-Van Buren AR-Conway AR-
359 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN STONE...SOUTHEASTERN
SEARCY...CENTRAL VAN BUREN AND NORTH CENTRAL CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CST...

At 359 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Claude, or 13 miles west of Clinton, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton...                        Shirley...
Thola...                          Claude...
Rocky Hill...                     Elba...
Woolum...                         Old Lexington...
Elberta...                        Cleveland...
Leslie...                         Beverage Town...
Alread...                         Alco...
Rushing...                        Turkey Creek...
Rupert...                         Scotland...
Landis...                         Dennard...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 9213 3571 9222 3571 9224 3570 9224
      3540 9268 3554 9285 3555 9284 3555 9281
      3558 9281 3598 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 222DEG 50KT 3553 9269

Cross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
404 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

ARZ012-021-022-030-262230-
Pope AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Logan AR-
404 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...CENTRAL
JOHNSON...SOUTH CENTRAL NEWTON AND NORTHWESTERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CST...

At 403 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tokalon, or near Clarksville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Lamar...
Knoxville...                      Subiaco...
Hartman...                        Scranton...
Dillen...                         Woodland...
Hinkle...                         Solo...
Hoyt...                           Midway in Logan County...
Spadra...                         Bertha...
Tokalon...                        Holman...
Lake Dardanelle...                Morrison Bluff...
Fort Douglas...                   Lutherville...

LAT...LON 3520 9351 3534 9372 3582 9322 3560 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 225DEG 41KT 3539 9344

Cross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
601 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

ARZ062-063-066>068-270045-
Bradley AR-Cleveland AR-Calhoun AR-Dallas AR-Ouachita AR-
601 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BRADLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHERN CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND
OUACHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CST...

At 600 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cullendale, or near Camden, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Camden...                         Fordyce...
Hampton...                        Bearden...
Stephens...                       Thornton...
Louann...                         Poison Springs State Park...
Cullendale...                     Ellisville...
Harlow...                         Highland Industrial Park...
Tipton...                         Marks Mill State Park...
East Camden...                    Tinsman...
Amy...                            Delhi...
Harmony Grove...                  Frenchport...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3338 9312 3356 9311 3407 9254 3370 9216
      3337 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 237DEG 36KT 3350 9288

Cross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

ARZ065-270115-
Desha AR-
639 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DESHA COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CST...

At 638 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lucca Landing, or near Rohwer, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rohwer...                         Arkansas City...
Lucca Landing...                  Jersey Point...
McArthur...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3376 9103 3378 9113 3377 9115 3373 9115
      3371 9112 3372 9106 3368 9103 3367 9103
      3366 9109 3371 9116 3370 9121 3369 9122
      3367 9123 3362 9114 3356 9129 3372 9140
      3393 9101 3385 9107 3379 9099 3378 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 240DEG 49KT 3369 9126

Goudsward

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
650 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

ARZ056-057-063-064-270130-
Cleveland AR-Lincoln AR-Arkansas AR-Jefferson AR-
650 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM CST...

At 650 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Toledo, or near Rison, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluff...                     Star City...
Rison...                          Gillett...
Grady...                          Nebo...
Feenyville...                     Cottondale...
Whitefield...                     Linwood...
Little Bayou Meto Park...         Madding...
Kedron...                         Woodville...
Mt Elba...                        Langford...
Douglas...                        Richardson...
Toledo...                         Cane Creek State Park...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Arkansas. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM CST
for southeastern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3378 9218 3393 9230 3443 9162 3412 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 237DEG 49KT 3390 9217

Goudsward

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