Tornado Warning 29, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Chances for SHRA/TSRA will be highest at the central and SRN
terminals this evening into the early overnight period...with
ADF...PBF and LLQ having the best opportunity for seeing
convection. Some MVFR or lower flight conditions will be
possible...especially under the most intense activity. Chance for
precip decrease considerably further north...with HRO and BPK
maybe seeing some morning MVFR fog due to light winds around
sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019)

Short Term...Tonight thru Friday...

Short term models are continuing to indicate convective initiation
later this evening across NE TX/SE OK, with convection moving into
AR around 00Z or shortly thereafter. NAM and RAP forecast soundings
across southwest AR show CAPE values in excess of 4000 j/kg.
Convection should spread and expand this evening across much of
southern AR. With the upper trof, extensive instability, and an
approaching surface boundary - storms should become quite strong to
possibly severe, especially during the evening hours. Damaging winds
are probably the most likely threat, although in the evening hours I
would also suspect that large hail may also occur.

After this system clears out, an upper ridge is going to start
building across the area. By Friday, temperatures across the area
should reach the lower 90's across the north, with mid 90's
elsewhere. With dewpoint values anticipated to be in the mid 70's,
this will bring heat index values close to heat advisory
criteria...which is 105 degrees.

Long Term...Saturday thru Wednesday...

Not many changes to the going forecast. The period begins with a
well established H250/H500 ridge planted across the central CONUS.
On Saturday, the upper ridge will shift eastward a bit allowing for
southwesterly flow to become re-established in the mid/low levels
across the Southern Plains. At the surface, southwesterly winds will
have already returned as low pressure develops over the Rockies.

On Sunday, an upper level short wave will move over the Rockies
further amplifying the flow between the tough and ridge over the
Great Lakes region. This short wave trough will pivot around a much
larger low over Canada. As this happens, an associated surface cold
front will approach the state from the north and west. Low level
southwesterly winds will increase in response to tightening pressure
gradient between the aforementioned surface low over the Plains and
surface high pressure over FL. Warm and moist air will continue to
advect into the region destabilizing the atmosphere heading into
Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will top out in the upper
80s to mid 90s. Dew point temperatures will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s resulting in heat indices between 100 and 105 on Saturday
and Sunday.

Monday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front where the best lift and instability will be
found. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the afternoon and evening time frame. Temperatures will reflect
abundant cloud cover with highs only in the lower 80s to around 90
degrees. The front will not stay long because it will begin to lift
northward as a warm front.

By Tuesday, the upper pattern becomes more zonal as the trough
slides north and east. Upper level ridging will one again build into
the region to end the period. A stalled surface boundary will become
the primary focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
430 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
430 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A complex of thunderstorms will enter western Arkansas this
morning, but will be weakening in the process. Gusty winds will
accompany some of the stronger storms.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon, primarily over central and southern Arkansas. The
activity will persist into tonight as it slowly shifts to the
south.

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats expected
with the strongest storms. An isolated tornado may also be
possible. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur, resulting in an
isolated flash flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the first
half of Thursday with some strong thunderstorms still possible.
However, widespread severe weather is not expected.

High pressure will then build over the region through the weekend
with a return to very warm and humid conditions. Afternoon heat
index values will climb back into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees
through the weekend. Thunderstorms return to the forecast by late in
the weekend and early next week as the weather pattern starts to
become active again.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44/56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

ARZ040-200000-
Polk AR-
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

At 614 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Grannis, or 16 miles northwest of De Queen, moving east
at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Bogg Springs...

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9447 3434 9425 3427 9426 3427 9425
      3419 9425 3419 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 266DEG 25KT 3425 9450

46

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