Tornado Warning 20, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
710 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.AVIATION...

A complex of SHRA/TSRA was moving across the state this afternoon.
This activity will continue to affect eastern and southern TAF
sites for the longest duration of time. A lull in convection is
expected into the early evening before another round of SHRA/TSRA
develop and move across the state. MVFR/IFR conditions will
prevail through the period. VFR conditions are expected after
15/16z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 308 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Southerly flow continues across the area bringing abundant
moisture into the state. Latest soundings show a moistening of the
lower layers. Showers with scattered thunderstorms continue to
overspread the area. Precipitation chances will continue tonight
and Thursday and into Friday. Flash flooding is the main concern
with an already saturated ground. The round of rain tonight should
bring the heavier rain, late evening through the overnight hours.
The Flash Flood Watch continues into Thursday afternoon. A slight
risk of severe thunderstorms continues through this evening for
much of the state. The best chance of severe storms will be in the
south with damaging winds the main threat. The cold front will
work through the state Thursday and this will bring cooler
temperatures for Friday. High temperatures Friday will be mainly
in the 60s.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
The period will begin with a stalled frontal boundary across the
forecast area. Surface high pressure will push into the area on
Sunday and push the boundary southward out of the area, bringing a
brief respite in the rainfall.

A return flow will set up by Tuesday / Tuesday night, bringing Gulf
moisture back into the area again. A closed low over the
southwestern US will start to kick a few disturbances across the
area as it advances, bringing rain chances back to the forecast by
late in the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-
Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-
Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Aviation...JONES

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
419 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
419 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorm will continue to advance eastward through the evening
and overnight hours. Severe weather will be possible with any
thunderstorm...with damaging winds and tornadoes possible with the
strongest storms. Some storms may also produce large hail. The
best chances for seeing severe weather will be across southern
parts of the state through this evening.

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible overnight into
early Thursday morning. Severe weather will again be
possible...with damaging winds and tornadoes possible with the
strongest storms.

Areas of heavy rainfall will be possible through tonight with
these two rounds of thunderstorms. Expect rainfall amounts of 1 to
3 inches across much of the area through tonight...with locally
higher amounts possible. The heaviest rainfall looks to fall
across the central into southern sections of the area through
tonight. Given how much heavy rainfall has been observed over the
past several weeks...this will contribute to an increasing flash
flood threat...as well as worsen ongoing flooding across numerous
river basins.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible throughout the daytime
hours on Thursday...with additional heavy rainfall expected
across southern into southeast sections of the area. An additional
1 to 2 inches will be possible after sunrise Thursday...with
storm total amounts by Thursday afternoon of 2 to 4 inches.
Locally higher amounts will be possible....with the threat for
flash and river flooding continuing.

Severe weather will remain possible on Thursday...with the best
chances for seeing severe weather across the southeast half of the
area. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with the strongest
storms on Thursday.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast into the weekend...with additional heavy rainfall
possible. Calmer conditions will then be seen by early next week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be need through tonight and Thursday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

ARZ066-067-082145-
Calhoun AR-Ouachita AR-
359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN AND OUACHITA COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from White Oak Lake State Park to near Buckner.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Camden...                         Hampton...
Bearden...                        Stephens...
Calion...                         Thornton...
Chidester...                      Harrell...
Louann...                         Poison Springs State Park...
Cullendale...                     White Oak Lake State Park...
Harlow...                         Hampton Municipal Airport...
Highland Industrial Park...       East Camden...
Amy...                            Artesian...
Delhi...                          Harmony Grove...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 9244 3329 9247 3332 9246 3333 9248
      3332 9249 3333 9250 3332 9253 3335 9253
      3337 9259 3336 9261 3337 9265 3336 9267
      3339 9275 3337 9279 3338 9312 3378 9310
      3380 9235 3379 9235 3327 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 227DEG 26KT 3371 9309 3331 9337

65

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