Tornado Warning 10, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
The overall forecast philosophy remains fairly constant regarding
expected sensible weather during this period.

Regional radar data indicate several areas of convection currently
developing, and moving northeastward.

Activity in local CWA is currently developing in deep southerly
flow, acting on a abnormally moist atmospheric column, as indicated
by the 12z KLZK precipitable water value.

Another area of convection is developing across eastern Oklahoma, in
a region of very high surface based instability. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop southwestward to north Texas
this afternoon. Additional forcing is being provided by a nearly
stationary boundary, subjectively analyzed from northeast Oklahoma
to western north Texas. Mid level energy over the southern high
plains in a fast southwest flow is also aiding this development.
Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest upscale organization
overnight, with this activity accelerating eastward overnight.
Latest forecasts account for this scenario.

Continued unstable and moist conditions, along with smaller scale
convectively produced boundaries will focus additional activity
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The stationary boundary to the west
will approach late in the period, and provided a focus for
additional development.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Much of the long term portion of the forecast will be characterized
by above normal chances for rainfall as well as near normal
temperatures. At the start of the period, a cold front will begin to
make eastward progress away from the area. Swrly flow will remain in
place aloft with continued shortwave energy moving over the state
allowing for rain and thunderstorms to continue over the area.

Through the weekend into the early part of next week, as a large
scale H500 trough continues to rotate across central/southeast
Canada, more of a zonal flow setup will unfold locally. As another
front approaches from the north and additional pieces of shortwave
energy pass through the zonal flow, occasional rain chances will be
seen in the forecast. Little if any of the extended forecast will be
without rain across at least some portion of the state.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  79  65  75 /  60  60  60  80
Camden AR         67  84  67  78 /  30  50  50  80
Harrison AR       63  78  62  74 /  90  50  60  70
Hot Springs AR    65  79  65  75 /  60  60  70  80
Little Rock   AR  67  81  66  76 /  50  60  60  80
Monticello AR     68  83  67  80 /  20  40  40  70
Mount Ida AR      64  78  64  76 /  70  70  70  80
Mountain Home AR  63  78  63  75 /  80  60  60  80
Newport AR        67  79  66  76 /  40  60  50  70
Pine Bluff AR     67  83  67  78 /  20  50  50  80
Russellville AR   65  79  65  77 /  70  60  70  70
Searcy AR         65  80  65  77 /  40  60  60  80
Stuttgart AR      68  81  67  78 /  20  50  50  80
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-Fulton-
Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Stone-Van
Buren.

&&

Short Term...55 / Long Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-
Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-
Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across northern and
western Arkansas, especially late Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

Areas of heavy rain are expected in the north and west, with two to
four inch amounts in the forecast. Locally higher totals could occur
in places. Given this much rain, flash flooding is a concern.

Also, there is a risk of severe storms north and west of Little
Rock. Storms that become severe will have the potential of producing
damaging winds and quarter size hail or larger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

The atmosphere will remain very unstable on Wednesday, especially
over the northwest half of Arkansas. Thunderstorms will remain
likely in this part of the state, and could bring additional severe
weather and flash flooding.

From Thursday through Saturday, the front responsible for the active
pattern will slowly wobble across the region from the northwest.
While good chances of rain will continue, high water issues and
severe storms should be more localized.

The front will exit the region by late in the weekend, with
thunderstorms becoming isolated.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

46/230

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

ARZ003-302030-
Boone AR-
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harrison, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Diamond City...
Bergman...                        Lead Hill...
Myrtle...                         Capps...
Willis...                         Winington...
Bellefonte...                     Zinc...
South Lead Hill...                Batavia...
Bear Creek Springs...             Hopewell in Boone County...
Bull Shoals Lake...

LAT...LON 3625 9289 3614 9309 3615 9315 3627 9324
      3636 9315 3645 9301 3648 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 222DEG 28KT 3623 9314

Cavanaugh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
316 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TORNADO          BERGMAN                 36.31N  93.01W
04/30/2019                   BOONE              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1900029

55

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