Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
526 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings, fog and drizzle will impact most of the area
terminals this morning with rain and thunderstorms expected as a
cold front moves across the area later this morning through the
early afternoon hours. Rapid clearing will take place with VFR
conditions expected from west to east by 17-21z. SW winds will
remain elevated today with gusts over 20-30kts at times. Winds
will relax somewhat and become NW this evening and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 401 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Busy weather day across the region already unfolding as elevated
storms have been developing across areas just to the west of the
state. All observational platforms can be used to identify surface
to upper level features in play for today's setup.

Surface observations locally show a warm front that wreaked havoc on
short term temperature forecasting yesterday and last night
continuing to "waffle" from just north of Mena to Arkadelphia to
between Pine Bluff and Monticello, with drizzle and significantly
reduced vsby to the north. Further west, observations clearly show a
990mb surface low over southeast Colorado with a strong cold
front trailing to its south.

GOES16 IR satellite data shows the H500 trough lifting northeast
across the Southern to Central Plains. This same imagery shows
abundant moisture streaming northward to Minnesota and cooling
cloud tops from TS activity over OK/KS.

Anyway, all of this is to say that things are on track so to speak.
If anything, the timing has sped up which will lead to most of the
activity being just east of a Hardy to Little Rock to Camden line
by 18z. The main concerns haven't changed with hail continuing to
be the main threat across the north and west this morning, with a
transition to damaging winds and isolated tornadoes expected
later in the morning through the early afternoon. High resolution
CAM data continues to show high levels of LLWS as well as
increasing surface/elevated instability. The area of greatest
concern for the most widespread damaging wind threat and isolated
tornadoes continues to be across the southeast half of the state.
All of this activity is expected to be east of the MS river aoa
21z.

Other than the severe threat, as the surface low approaches the area
non-thunderstorm gradient winds will greatly increase. The main
focus for the strongest winds exists across northern Arkansas
southeastward across the Delta. Expect winds to slack off after
sunset with surface high pressure building in and cooler air
spreading across the state. Most of Sunday should be dry, but light
rain is expected to move in from the west during the evening and
overnight hours.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

The period will begin with a large area of high pressure from the
Ohio Valley to the southeast states. That will keep much of the
state dry on Monday, with seasonal temperatures in the forecast.
Meanwhile, a storm system aloft will dig toward Baja California,
with a deep southerly flow developing in the southern Plains. This
could result in a few showers in southern sections of the state by
Monday afternoon/evening.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, the system will head this way, with a warming
trend in the forecast. There will be chances of showers on Tuesday
in northern/western Arkansas. Showers will become widespread on
Wednesday, with areas of heavy rain expected. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible as well. As far as severe weather, instability
looks marginal at this point, but will keep an eye on the situation.

Some showers will linger in the southeast half of the state on
Thursday, with drier/slightly cooler air arriving on Friday.
Temperatures will be back to seasonal to end the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-
Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lawrence-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-
Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Fulton-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Lawrence-Marion-Monroe-Newton-Prairie-Randolph-Searcy-
Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff.

&&

Aviation...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
420 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
420 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog will reduce visibilities to less than a half of
mile across much of northern and central Arkansas through Saturday
morning.

Thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, will be possible
across western and northern portions of the state Saturday
morning. The main threat with these storms would be large hail.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the state through the early afternoon hours.

At this time, the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms during
the day Saturday will be across the southeast half of the state.
Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary hazards
from later in the morning through early afternoon. Strong south
to southwesterly winds will also be seen on Saturday, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts could exceed
40 mph in some places.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region on
Wednesday, with areas of heavy rain expected. Some storms may be
strong as well.

Through Wednesday, parts of the state could pick up two to three
inches of rain. This could worsen ongoing river flooding.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed Through Saturday Afternoon.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

67/46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
811 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
03/09/2019  E60 MPH          JOHNSON            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JGOUDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
814 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
03/09/2019  M58 MPH          POPE               AR   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT THE RUSSELLVILLE AIRPORT.

&&

JGOUDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
831 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SUBIACO                 35.30N 93.64W
03/09/2019                   LOGAN              AR   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS BROKEN AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOFS IN
            SUBIACO.

&&

JGOUDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
834 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAMAR                   35.44N 93.39W
03/09/2019                   JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN LAMAR. EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS DAMAGE
            CONSISTENT WITH 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

JGOUDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOXVILLE               35.38N 93.36W
03/09/2019                   JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN KNOXVILLE. EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS DAMAGE
            CONSISTENT WITH 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

JGOUDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
915 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N DOVER               35.45N 93.11W
03/09/2019                   POPE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN AND TRUCK BLOWN OFF THE ROAD NORTH OF DOVER.
            ALSO A REPORT OF A SHED BLOWN ONTO A CAR AND A TREE
            LEANING OVER A HOUSE.

&&

JGOUDS