Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.Short term...Tonight through Tuesday

Mainly diurnally driven convection continues to fire up at this time
with the largest concentration of storms over the western part of
the state. Atmosphere remains supportive of convection through the
evening hours with a few of the stronger storms capable of producing
gusty winds and to a lesser extent, large hail. Heat indices
continue to flirt with advisory criteria but with cloud cover and
developing convection, will hold off on any heat related headlines
at this time.

Upper ridging currently to the west of the state will build into the
region during the remainder of the short term period. The area will
be on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge with a
continuing chance of afternoon convection on Monday. Once again heat
indices will be borderline for a heat advisory although it is some
likely that it will be met briefly at the usual locations during
peak heating.

Ridge will expand eastward on Tuesday and any precipitation chances
will be confined to the eastern sections of the forecast area. South
to southwest winds will continue to pull gulf moisture into the area
and with temperatures being a little warmer, heat related headlines
will likely be needed.
&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday

Long term begins with a ridge of high pressure centered just to the
west of Arkansas and surface high pressure to the east. Moisture
will be on the increase on Wednesday ahead of a cold front moving
towards the state from the north. Heat index values on Wednesday
will be quite warm with values over 105.

By Thursday the aforementioned cold front will make its way into the
state and bring rain chances to the forecast. This front will stall
across the area before completely washing out. This will keep rain
chances in the forecast through the end of the long term. With the
increased rain chances, temperatures will be kept in check with
temperatures forecast at or below normal.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  94  76  96 /  20  30  10  20
Camden AR         77  96  76  98 /  10  20  10  20
Harrison AR       73  92  73  93 /  30  20  10  10
Hot Springs AR    77  95  76  97 /  20  20  10  10
Little Rock   AR  77  96  77  97 /  20  20  10  10
Monticello AR     77  94  76  96 /  20  30  10  20
Mount Ida AR      76  95  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
Mountain Home AR  73  93  73  95 /  30  30  10  10
Newport AR        75  93  76  95 /  20  30  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     76  94  76  96 /  20  20  10  20
Russellville AR   76  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10
Searcy AR         75  95  75  96 /  20  30  10  20
Stuttgart AR      75  93  76  95 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...GOUDSWARD / Long Term...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
234 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon through Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
evening hours. While a few of the thunderstorms could be strong to
possibly severe, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Heat index values will range from 100 to 105 degrees across much
of the region this afternoon. After storms dissipate this
evening, there will be small chances of thunderstorms toward the
Missouri border after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Chances of thunderstorms will continue through the middle of the
week, especially during the afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but chances of severe
weather will remain low.

Heat index values could reach 105 to 110 degrees by Tuesday and
Wednesday in most of Arkansas except parts of the Ozark and Ouachita
Mountains of the north and west.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Given only spotty severe weather, spotter activation will not be
needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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