Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
132 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.AVIATION...

Continuing to see showers and thunderstorms across the
state...attributed to the remnants of Barry. Currently seeing
VFR/MVFR conditions at most TAF sites. Conditions should remain
MVFR for much of the overnight before becoming VFR during the day
on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 730 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019)
AVIATION...16/00Z TAF CYCLE

The remnants of Barry wl cont to move sloly acrs N AR into Tue.
Rain chances wl linger ovr much of the FA tngt into Tue, with
VFR/MVFR conds expected. Like the previous night, IFR conds wl
return to most locations late tngt into Tue mrng. Convection is
progged to form over parts of S AR late tngt, but still some
uncertainty regarding initiation and coverage. Most locations wl
see improving flight conds later in the PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019)
Short Term...Tonight thru Wednesday...
TD Barry is presently over the area, and is presenting a unique
forecast challenge for tonight thru tomorrow. NAM last night started
indicating a band of heavy rainfall across southwest AR, which was
met with some skepticism. However, 12Z models jumped on that
trend with quite a bit of consistency showing heavy rain in a
training band curving around the southwest side of Barry, and up
to the NE. HRRR and RAP are continuing to show some variation of
that trend from run to run. I literally have 9 models displayed on
the screen in front of me that are showing some variation of this
scenario. Some models are indicating in excess of 10" of rainfall
along a narrow band of heavy rainfall overnight into tomorrow
morning.

I have worked a number of post-landfall tropical events over 25+
years and never encountered a scenario quite like this, and I do
have some concerns about the magnitude of rainfall being forecast by
many of the models. There is a fair amount of low level convergence
expected on the southwest side of Barry, and the development of a
low-level jet will further enhance this event.

Existing flash flood watch covers only eastern parts of the forecast
area. With all things considered, I am issuing a flash flood watch
for the southwestern and southern counties, extending up to the
northeast for the next 24 hours. Ultimately I think this band of
training convection will be fairly narrow, but I have quite a bit of
uncertainty as to exactly where this will set up. With that said, I
have to paint the QPF with a fairly broad brush thru this area. For
the most part I will go 5+ inches with the heaviest rainfall band
overnight.

Extended Term...Wednesday Night thru Monday...
Compared to the short term portion of the forecast, the long term
portion is rather boring with drastically different weather
related impacts.

Upper ridging will remain the dominant weather feature across much
of the southern US with surface ridging holding firm off the SE US
coast. With a primarily rain-free forecast and temperatures climbing
throughout the period, heat will become a concern. Td values will
remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s F which when combined with
afternoon temps in the 90s will provide heat indices above 100 F.

Heat advisories will need to be considered for at least some
portions of the forecast area nearly every day of the long term.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.

&&

Aviation...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
409 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-160915-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
409 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The remnants of Barry will continue to push north through the state
today and bring locally heavy rain and the chance for an isolated
tornado...mainly across eastern Arkansas. The locally heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding.

Strong and gusty winds combined with saturated soils, may lead to
trees being knocked down and disrupting power for portions of
eastern Arkansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Tuesday, continued chances for heavy rain will be seen...with the
best chance for heavy rain and flash flooding possible across
southwest Arkansas during the first half of the day on Tuesday.

Heat index values will warm into the mid 90s to just over 100 nearly
every day into the weekend. Some areas may see heat index values
warm above 105 later in the week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday Afternoon.

&&

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