Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
530 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to add the Winter Wx Adv from earlier over NRN sections of
the state. This is due to the widespread FZRA with some SN and PL
mixed in. Some accumulations will be possible...especially in the
higher terrain. Also updated to include the 00Z aviation
discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR to IFR conditions will be seen for much of the area this
evening...especially central to NRN terminals as widespread
rainfall with occasional TSRA possible. The NRN terminals will
see some FZRA or PL possible this evening...eventually
transitioning to all rain by late tonight. Most of the precip will
then exit the region by Wed morning...with some lingering low
CIGS. However...improvements should be seen by Wed afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...

Data from local radars indicate a precipitation shield now
covering all portions of the forecast area. Mixed areas of sleet
have been observed across northern sections. Also, central
sections have had temperatures drop to the lower 30s. Regional 18z
soundings in support of the VORTEX-SE support some additional
evaporative cooling during the mid afternoon hours, before
increased warm air advection in lower levels develops.

Intensity and coverage of precipitation will decrease late
tonight, as the better forcing moves to the east and northeast of
the state.

Additional, less pronounced upper level energy will approach late
in the period, and will promote scattered, light precipitation
across mainly southeast sections.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...
Low pressure forming along a boundary to the south of Arkansas
will enhance uplift into the region, with showers overspreading
the state Thursday night into Friday.

By Friday and Friday night, thunderstorms will become a concern, as
the warm sector of the system advances into the region, and a
negatively tilted upper trough approaches from the southern plains.

Heavy rainfall remains a concern with the overabundance of moisture
coming into the region from the Gulf and Pacific. This, combined
with already saturated ground will create prime conditions for flash
flooding. Heavy rain will also keep river stages high, with flooding
continuing into early March.

Severe thunderstorms are also a concern on Saturday, given the
amount of shear and upper level support we will have over us. The
big question remains instability (or lack thereof). Still seeing
this playing out as a low cape/high shear event, with mcs
development ahead of the front and a risk of wind damage and qlcs-
type tornadoes.

Saturday night, the surface low will drag a cold front across
the state, with drier and slightly cooler air following. The front
will stall out to the south of the state as it hits upper ridging
over the gulf.&&

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Baxter-
Boone-Fulton-Izard-Lawrence-Marion-Newton-Randolph-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren.

Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Grant-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.

&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
906 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
906 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Freezing rain, mixed with sleet at times, will continue to affect
the higher elevations over north Arkansas. Temperatures in these
locations will hover close to the freezing mark this evening,
causing ice to accumulate on mainly trees and power lines. This
could result in some power outages, along with slick spots on
bridges and overpasses.

Elsewhere, periods of rain will continue tonight, with the
rainfall heavy at times. Scattered thunderstorms are possible,
with small hail associated with the stronger storms.

This rain will fall on ground that is already saturated in many
areas and flooding will be a concern. Area rivers will also
continue to run high.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Several more storm systems will affect the state through Sunday,
bringing multiple rounds of rain. The rain will be heavy at times.
The excessive rainfall is expected to slow or halt the fall of
river levels that were significantly impacted by last weeks heavy
rain. In addition to potentially elevating river levels across
central and eastern Arkansas, flash flooding will be a concern.

A strong storm system will affect the state this weekend, and could
bring the threat of severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Stay informed by monitoring the latest forecasts and outlooks from
your National Weather Service forecast offices.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday afternoon.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
422 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

ARZ033-044>046-192245-
Pulaski AR-White AR-Lonoke AR-Prairie AR-
422 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE...
NORTHWESTERN LONOKE...SOUTHWESTERN WHITE AND EASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CST...

At 422 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Protho Junction, or near North Little Rock, moving northeast at 70
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    North Little Rock...
Sherwood...                       Jacksonville...
Cabot...                          Searcy...
Downtown Little Rock...           Lonoke...
Little Rock AFB...                Beebe...
Ward...                           Wrightsville...
Austin in Lonoke County...        Kensett...
Argenta...                        Higginson...
Old Austin...                     Crosby...
Parnell...                        Gravel Ridge...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 9218 3466 9235 3534 9183 3515 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 218DEG 65KT 3474 9216

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
442 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

ARZ039-042-043-053-054-192315-
Hot Spring AR-Perry AR-Clark AR-Saline AR-Garland AR-
442 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...GARLAND...NORTHWESTERN SALINE AND NORTHWESTERN
HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CST...

At 442 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
DeGray Lake State Park, or 13 miles southwest of Hot Springs, moving
northeast at 70 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Hot Springs Village...
Mountain Pine...                  Lonsdale...
Hot Springs Memorial Field...     Jessieville...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Lofton...
Rockwell...                       DeGray Lake State Park...
Hot Springs National Park...      Bismarck...
Oaklawn Racetrack...              Sunshine...
Royal...                          De Roche...
Point Cedar...                    Gulpha Gorge...
Hamilton...                       Hempwallace...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 9310 3478 9265 3477 9265 3476 9260
      3476 9259 3420 9313 3428 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 218DEG 64KT 3433 9316

62

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