Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mosaic radar imagery showing persistent TSRA across western AR
that will encroach on northern terminals early in the period.
Otherwise, MVFR cigs expected again during the early morning hours
with most terminals outside KHRO/KBPK, improving to VFR through
the day. TSRA increases again during the day Sunday, most notably
across NW AR. More isolated TS will be possible elsewhere,
primarily in the afternoon and beyond. TSRA becomes more
widespread late in the period and MVFR or worse conditions will be
possible. Gusty southerly winds will persist through the period.

62/Cooper

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Current LZK radar depicts scattered showers developing in response
to daytime heating. This trend is expected to continue through the
early evening hours. Most likely areas to receive showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon will be across portions of central and
northern AR which are furtherest removed from the influence of high
pressure situated over the northeast Gulf. Temperatures this
afternoon range from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dew point
temperatures are well into the humid category with readings in mid
to upper 70s. Warm temperatures combined with abundant moisture is
leading to heat indices ranging from around 100 to 110 degrees this
afternoon. A heat advisory will remain in affect through 7PM this
evening.

Aloft, the pattern can be characterized with broad ridging over the
TN valley northwards into the Great Lakes region. Across the
Rockies, a well defined trough was oriented south to north. Between
systems, upper flow is out of the southwest at all levels. Abundant
moisture is advecting into this region as a result, PW values range
from 1.5 to 2 inches across the south Central Plains. These features
will slowly translate eastward over the period.

Near the surface, elongated low pressure extends from NM into
portions of northeast KS and northwest MO. A cold front extended
south and west from the low providing a sharp cutoff in low level
moisture from expanding westward. A warm front/outflow gradient from
prior convection has lead to a well defined boundary extending
eastward from this low into the Carolinas. East of the front and
south of the warm front, ample moisture and instability reside
across the warm sector. Meanwhile, over the northeastern Gulf high
pressure was in control. PGF between surface features is helping
pump rich Gulf moisture into the region over the next couple days.

On Sunday, a new surface low pressure is expected to develop, this
low is expected to be our next big weather maker. As the low
approaches, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
OK and MO and begin to push south and east. High res CAM guidance
suggest an MCS will develop and quickly move south and east across
the state late Sunday into early Monday morning. This trend has
remained fairly unchanged over the last several runs. Forecasted
soundings ahead of the convection advertise CAPE values 2000-4000
J/kg. 0-3 km shear ranges from 30 to 40 knots, this should help
storms organize beyond single cell convection. There will be some
veering with height in the lower levels however should remain low
enough to mitigate supercell development, thus the most likely storm
mode would favor cells growing upscale into a line or line
segments. The main concern with these storms initially will be large
hail transitioning to a wind event. This portion of the forecast
will be refined over the next several runs.

On Monday, the system is expected to exit to the southeast, slightly
drier air will filter into the region. Slight Chc PoPs will remain
across the southern tier of the state as the system slows to a
crawl. Temperatures will cool a bit on Sunday and Monday in response
to rainfall and cloud cover.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

As the longwave pattern remains in a quasi-zonal state for most of
the period, the weather will remain unsettled over the region. You
know how it goes this time of year...left over remnant/mesoscale
surface boundaries, daytime heating, upper level systems, mesoscale
convective systems (I could go on and on). At any rate, the pattern
does appear to be conducive to mcs and mcs remnant-related
convection.

Toward the middle and latter portions of the week, the long range
solutions seem to be amplifying upper ridging to the west/southwest
and possibly the north, bringing a deepening trough around the
periphery of it, and into the mid south region. If the ridge
amplifies to the west and southwest, the flow would become more
northwesterly. But, if it becomes more expansive to the north and
into the Plains, it could cut the trough off from the main flow,
with low pressure deepening. Either way, this will likely be an
active pattern, with above average rainfall.

Temperatures through the period will largely be dependent on
convection and associated cloud cover, though it does look like
maxes and mins should be within a few degrees of average for mid to
late June. Given what this time of year is capable of temperature-
wise, I guess we can't complain too much, can we?

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62/Cooper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
311 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
311 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The combination of high afternoon temperatures and abundant
moisture will support heat indices in the upper 90s to around 110
through this evening. Caution is advised for anyone outdoors or
without access to air conditioning.

Widely scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon. While severe weather is not anticipated, a couple
instances of marginally severe hail and wind gusts will be
possible.

Area boaters should also exercise caution on waterways. Winds will
remain elevated through this afternoon... with sustained speeds up
to 15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop from Sunday into Monday, with
severe weather chances confined to mainly western parts of the state
Sunday and Sunday night. A few storms could be capable of producing
hail and damaging winds Sunday through Sunday night. Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to an isolated flash flooding threat as well,
mainly across western parts of the state.

From Tuesday through the end of next week, hot and humid conditions
will remain in the forecast. Heat index values could approach 100
degrees in some areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible nearly every day. Severe weather chances are low during
this timeframe.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ030-037-230600-
Scott AR-Logan AR-
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oliver, or 8 miles west of Waldron, moving north at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield...                      Echo...
Oliver...                         Morgan Springs...
Cauthron...                       Winfield...
Hon...                            Lucas...
Elm Park...                       Liberty...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 9426 3497 9423 3506 9423 3506 9425
      3507 9422 3508 9422 3509 9416 3510 9416
      3510 9407 3483 9418 3485 9433 3495 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 190DEG 34KT 3492 9425

67