Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary stalled from
southeast Arkansas into northwest Arkansas/southern Missouri.
Showers/storms have continued to fire in the warm sector, as there
are several remnant mesoscale boundaries left over from morning
convection in the Plains, and moisture-rich low levels, as
evidenced by area of dewpoints aoa 75 degrees extending from east
Texas into southeast Oklahoma.

Big concern over the next 12-24 hours is this convection in
western Arkansas into Oklahoma and Texas. Latest mesoscale models
continue to show an initial eastward push of showers/storms across
the southern half of Arkansas this afternoon and tonight. With an
upper trough extending well southward into the Plains of Texas and
Oklahoma riding over the top of the ridge centered southeast of
the Gulf coast, see no reason that this won't happen that way. So,
went with higher rain chances this afternoon and tonight. Would
not be surprised to see a few strong storms south/west of the
front. Even though there would be wet microburst potential and
hail with the strongest storms, I think heavy rainfall would be
the bigger threat.

Southernmost convection should wane after we lose the heating of
the day, with the focus becoming more of the northern area as the
upper trough shifts toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Showers/storms
will continue on Tuesday, as convection fires along remnant
boundaries during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Mid to late-week focus will then shift to surge of moisture
associated with potential tropical activity coming up from the
Gulf of Mexico. What could add the proverbial fuel to the fire
would be a cutoff upper low deepening over the southern Rockies.
Model solutions show this low sending several troughs through the
area in the mean flow, which will only add upper level support to
what will already be buoyant, moisture-laden low levels.

What could/would likely be the remnant tropical system will get
absorbed into an approaching frontal boundary by the weekend.
Problem is, as the aforementioned upper low reaches the eastern
Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley, ridging will amplify in the
midwest, which could slow things down a bit further.

Of course, any deviations in the model solutions could throw a
complete wrench in the going forecast. The models are still having
trouble resolving qpf amounts in this portion of the country, and
this is one of the most critical elements of the forecast right
now. Right now, it is important not to focus on the exact location
of the heaviest rainfall this far out, as solutions will likely
continue to vary until we get closer to mid-week and the weekend.
What's extremely important to remember is the antecedent
conditions (in other words, it's not going to take a great deal of
rain to cause a great deal of problems or additional problems).

As I've often said, your best bet is to continue to monitor the
forecast in the coming days.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  87  72  88 /  40  40  20  60
Camden AR         71  92  74  88 /  50  20  20  60
Harrison AR       66  84  70  84 /  50  40  20  60
Hot Springs AR    71  89  73  86 /  60  30  20  60
Little Rock   AR  71  90  74  88 /  60  40  20  60
Monticello AR     72  92  75  89 /  40  20  20  50
Mount Ida AR      69  88  72  84 /  50  30  20  60
Mountain Home AR  66  85  70  86 /  50  40  20  60
Newport AR        67  87  72  89 /  30  40  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     71  91  74  89 /  50  30  20  50
Russellville AR   70  87  72  86 /  50  40  20  60
Searcy AR         69  88  71  89 /  50  40  20  50
Stuttgart AR      71  90  74  89 /  50  30  20  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
early tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible,
with high winds and hail the main threats expected with the strongest
storms.

Meanwhile, the Arkansas River will continue to rise or remain high,
with major flooding continuing at all forecast points along the river.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Major flooding continues along the Arkansas River. This is an historic
event, with record or near record crests occurring or projected. Arkansas
River levels will remain high for quite some time.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next several
days before a larger storm system arrives towards the weekend. Some
storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds
the primary threats. Heavy rain is expected and will likely lead to
areas of flash flooding. Overall rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts, will aggravate ongoing flooding and could
prolong river flooding. All interests should monitor this forecast
closely over the coming days.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed by Thursday through early Saturday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

44/230

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

ARZ037-031715-
Scott AR-
1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM CDT...

At 1133 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heavener Runestone State Park, or 16 miles southeast of Poteau,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield...                      Oliver...
Morgan Springs...                 Bates...
Black Fork...                     Cauthron...
Liberty...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3493 9443 3495 9441 3494 9439
      3496 9437 3495 9434 3495 9429 3497 9424
      3506 9423 3506 9425 3507 9424 3508 9422
      3504 9413 3473 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 215DEG 17KT 3484 9451

65

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>