Tornado Warning 29, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
217 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will cross the Mid-Atlantic through tonight.
High pressure will build from the Tennessee Valley toward the
region through the end of the week. A cold front may approach
from Pennsylvania this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broken line of showers and thunderstorms along I-81 from near
Hagerstown to Harrisonburg pushing eastward as of mid afternoon.
Surface warm front is currently draped across central Virginia,
and this is where scattered convection is expected to continue
to focus this afternoon, with an isolated damaging wind gust or
two and locally heavy rainfall possible given increasing
moisture and instability as well as marginal shear. Max observed
rainfall rates so far have been about 2 in/hr, but not persisting
very long.

Shear magnitude thanks to strengthening low-level jet increases
this evening ahead of an approaching shortwave and developing
MCS. This convective system is most likely to affect eastern WV
zones this evening, weakening as it moves east. Some damaging
wind gusts are possible mainly west of I-81 this evening, with
spotty heavy rain possibly making it as far east as the I-95
corridor overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal system pushes east and falls apart Tuesday. No real
appreciable rain chances and since the front will be falling
apart, there's no real airmass change. If anything, Tuesday will
be even hotter given less cloud cover and downsloping westerly
flow (though humidity may be a little lower).

A weak front may touch off a pop up shower or thunderstorm later
Wednesday afternoon and evening, but with rising heights and
weak forcing anything should be very isolated at best.
Otherwise, hot and humid weather continues with heat indices
95-100 for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-upper level ridge will reach its maximum amplitude over our CWA
Thu and Fri keeping convection suppressed. Highs will be in the
mid 90s possibly reaching the upper 90s to near 100 as
indicated in the 95th percentile by various global models.
Despite the hot temperatures, heat indices appear will remain
below the threshold of 105/100F east/west of the Blue Ridge
respectively for Heat Advisories.

Heights begin to fall Saturday as closed upper level low drops from
Hudson Bay to northern New England. Its associated cold front is
fcst to cross the area Sunday and bring a slight reprieve from the
heat along a small risk of showers and t-storms. Ridge builds again
during the first few days of July with temperatures rising again
into the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR restrictions possible in any heavy shower or thunderstorm
activity until around midnight. Most likely to affect CHO/MRB.
Patchy fog possible mainly near outlying terminals late tonight,
but not confident enough in restrictions to put in TAF attm.
Gusty winds possible near storms mainly W of I-81 this eve.

Mainly VFR Tuesday through Saturday in W or SW flow.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for mid Chesapeake Bay waters and lower tidal Potomac River
through tonight for marginal southerly channeling. Gusts may
extend further north to near the Bay Bridge tonight, but not
high enough probability for a headline just yet. Could also be a
few near 20 kt W/NW gusts behind a departing frontal system
Tuesday morning.

Generally light flow and dry but very warm weather anticipated
Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides running half to one foot above normal, approaching but
likely not to exceed minor flood stage through Tuesday morning.
Highest anomalies are expected this evening, but this is
coincident with the lower of two daily high tide cycles.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF

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