Tornado Warning 22, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
303 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast of the area tonight. A weak
cold front will approach from the north Sunday and linger
Monday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle portion
of next week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over much of
the eastern United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Latest analysis shows a warm front extending southward through
the central Appalachians toward the western piedmont of North
Carolina. A notable CAPE gradient exists along the front, which
can also be seen with the lack of cumulus clouds to its east. With
the parent low well away in the upper Midwest, there won't be a
whole lot of eastward progression of this front through the
day. Aloft, one disturbance is now in northern West Virginia,
with associated showers and storms, while another is further
west in Indiana. Now that it appears the former disturbance is
taking aim toward the northwest corner of our area, showers and
storms south of US-50 in the mountains may tend to be more
scattered. Deep shear of 35-45 kt and SBCAPE of 1-2k J/kg
suggest some strong to severe storms are possible. A subsidence
inversion may limit updraft strength though, so the strongest
storms will probably be closer to the lift from the disturbance.
Strong winds would be the primary threat. While some form of
the convection looks to progress east of the Blue Ridge during
the through early evening, it should weaken in intensity as it
encounters the more stable atmosphere.

Convection with the second disturbance in the upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes may try to drift southeast into our area
this evening and overnight. However, it should be weakening in a
stabilizing nocturnal atmosphere. Otherwise it will be partly
to mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s. Some patchy fog is
possible in areas that get rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will be north of the area by Sunday while a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This means a hotter and
more humid day can be expected overall with highs nearing 90.
There will also be a more widespread threat of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours...though
coverage is somewhat in question given relatively deep westerly
flow (downsloping helping to suppress convection). However,
there will be a vort max approaching, mid and low level lapse
rates will be moderately steep, and CAPE/shear will be
favorable for storm organization. It's also possible a complex
of storms could develop upstream and propagate into the area.
Some storms could be severe with a threat of damaging winds and
perhaps hail.

Cold front will slide back southward across the region Sunday
night into Monday morning, though it may stall out toward
central Virginia. There will be a lingering chance of showers
through the night along the boundary. The front will likely
remain near or south of the area on Monday, with the greatest
chance of showers and storms across southern portions of the
CWA. Temperatures will be cooler in the lower to mid 80s. The
front may try to lift back north Monday night as another low
pressure system moves into the Great Lakes, so there is some
risk of showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday into Wednesday will be dominated by height rises as
southeastern U.S. ridge amplifies. This will lead to reduced t-storm
chances and hot temperatures into the 90s especially Wed when
temperatures will likely climb into the mid 90s and possibly upper
90s for some. Ridge begins to flatten Thu as upper level energy
moves across New England. More significant height falls are progged
across the area Thu night and Fri as an unusually deep trof over
southern Hudson Bay rotates ewd. Think our best chances for
widespread showers will come in the Thu night and early Fri time
frame associated cdfnt crosses the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR through Monday night. Patchy fog/mist could
reduce visibility during the late night and early morning
hours, especially at the more rural terminals or any locations
that receive rain. The other aviation threat will be in the form
of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening each day.
Today the risk will be greatest at MRB, with decreasing risk of
storms to the east. IAD/DCA/CHO could see some weakening storms
or showers by late afternoon. Expect only a minimal risk of
showers near Baltimore. A hung-up warm front may result in some
low clouds tonight near Baltimore but confidence is low.

There will be a more area-wide risk of thunderstorms on Sunday,
and some of these could be locally strong to severe. The risk of
storms will decline on Monday, although there could be one near
CHO. There's some risk of low clouds developing as well as a
front sinks south, but tough to pinpoint at this juncture.

No sig wx expected Tue and Wed. Believe any storms Tue and Wed will
be very spotty due to upper ridge in control.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm front slowly lifting northward will result in southerly
channeling later today and tonight, with the strongest winds
expected on the southern Maryland waters. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect this afternoon, gradually scaling back
tonight. Winds diminish on Sunday as high pressure regains
control. However, strong thunderstorms may require Special
Marine Warnings during the afternoon and evening. Will need to
watch for SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday as another
front drops south, although guidance has mixed signals at this
point regarding the surge of wind. As the front stalls Monday
into Monday night, the gradient will weaken, so am not expecting
any headlines.

Possible SCA conditions at night on the main channel of the bay due
to southerly channeling Tue night and Wed night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-
     539>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ531-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-261030-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
333 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
are possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Sunday.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-261030-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
333 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia,
northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland
with the exception of Garrett County.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging winds is possible
this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk of a severe
thunderstorm is near and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
are possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Sunday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW REVA               38.46N  78.20W
05/23/2019                   MADISON            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WEST HOOVER RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1904504

ADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1256 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE MOUNT HARMONY      38.71N  76.59W
05/23/2019                   CALVERT            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR OWINGS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1904505

ADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1258 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CHESAPEAKE BEACH   38.66N  76.56W
05/23/2019                   CALVERT            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON BEAVER DAM RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1904506

ADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1259 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW LONG BEACH         38.47N  76.48W
05/23/2019                   CALVERT            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CALVERT BEACH RD AT APPLE WAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1904507

ADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
101 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE DRUM POINT        38.35N  76.42W
05/23/2019                   CALVERT            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON COYOTE TRAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1904508

ADS

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