Tornado Warning 27, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Current thunderstorm activity nearest KCDS and will continue in
the vicinity at least the next two hours. Back west, activity has
ended, but we are watching an approaching Pacific cold front
boundary moving out of eastern New Mexico that is expected to move
through KLBB and KPVW near 04Z and KCDS around 06z-07z. This will
be accompanied by increasing lift and moisture remains in the
vicinity, so have adjusted thunder chances to time with arrival
and passage of this cold front. Forecast will continue to indicate
temporary MVFR conditions but brief IFR also are possible. Remember
the area remains in a highly unusual High Risk of severe
thunderstorms with tornado and very large hail threats. Pilots
are advised to follow RADAR trends closely. Behind the cold front,
drier westerly flow will spread in with expected around 20 knots
of flow. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus of today's forecast will be the not-so-secret severe
threat. Skies have already begun to thin out with a cumulus field
forming from southeast to northwest. This will allow the build up of
additional CAPE in which MLCAPE is already sitting at over 3000
J/kg. At the same time the dryline is just now approaching the TX/NM
state line at a slower/later pace than previously shown by short-
term models. This would hint at storms developing further west (west
of Lubbock) than current models are indicating (along/east of the
I27/US87 corridor). The one thing that could hinder westward
development would be mixing occurring across our western zones.
Right now at most this would hinder the extent of the significant
tornado threat, however it would not make it null. There are also
indications of convection trying to develop along the dryline with
light reflectivities showing up near Olton and Anton. Any storm that
develops will have a high probability of becoming severe. Very steep
lapse rates with 0-6km shear in excess of 50 knots will support the
potential for very large hail over 3-4 inches. 12Z soundings at MAF
and AMA revealed 0-1km SRH of 295 to 341 m2/s2 respectively. Current
analysis shows that SRH has decreased somewhat due to surface winds
becoming more southerly, but this does little to deter the threat
for tornadoes. SRH remains higher across the Rolling Plains and
eastern Texas Panhandle where the greatest tornado threat exists.
With abundant shear, helicity, and low LCLs some tornadoes will have
the potential to be violent.

Tomorrow the surface low will pull eastward across KS allowing for a
fairly windy day with near to above advisory level winds across much
of the FA especially across our northwestern zones. We could see
additional bouts of showers and thunderstorms by late week into
early weekend as another upper low digs into the Four Corners
region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-030>032-
036>038-042>044.

&&

99/99/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ021>044-210430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1130 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms including significant
tornadoes continues to be likely this afternoon and evening,
generally along and east of a line from Dimmitt to
Brownfield. The atmosphere will destabilize this afternoon east
of a dryline expected to stall across the central South Plains.
Supercells are likely to develop early to mid afternoon east of
the dryline and will race northeast at speeds of 45 to 50 mph.
These storms will be capable of producing long lived tornadoes,
giant hail to softball size, and damaging winds of 70 mph or more.
Later this evening, a large squall line is expected to develop on
the Caprock and sweep east accompanied by all modes of severe
weather, including flooding.

Today we advise those in West Texas to maintain high situational
awareness of the weather around them and understand that today's
environment will support rapid storm intensification and likely
produce high-end severe weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts are
expected over much of the region on Tuesday. Beginning
Wednesday night and continuing through Sunday, daily chances
for severe storms are expected as an active pattern resumes
across much of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             5 W O'DONNELL           32.97N 101.92W
05/20/2019  E1.75 INCH       LYNN               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900379

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W SPUR                33.48N 100.88W
05/20/2019  M61 MPH          DICKENS            TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900380

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TORNADO          13 E DICKENS            33.62N 100.61W
05/20/2019                   DICKENS            TX   STORM CHASER

            LARGE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900381

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SLIDE                   33.41N 101.93W
05/20/2019                   LUBBOCK            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI-TRAILER BLOWN ONTO CAR 1/4 MILE WEST OF SLIDE ROAD
            ON FM41

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900382

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
708 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TORNADO          16 E DICKENS            33.62N 100.57W
05/20/2019                   DICKENS            TX   STORM CHASER

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AT CR371 AND HW82

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900383

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
715 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W SPUR                33.48N 100.88W
05/20/2019  M80 MPH          DICKENS            TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900384

JGD