Tornado Warning 10, NWS Lubbock, TX

729 
WWUS54 KLUB 072140
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
440 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

TXC069-189-437-072200-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190507T2200Z/
Castro TX-Hale TX-Swisher TX-
440 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO...NORTHWESTERN HALE AND SOUTHWESTERN SWISHER
COUNTIES...
        
At 439 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles east of Hart, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 10186 3439 10161 3428 10176 3425 10193
      3427 10201 3428 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 195DEG 37KT 3438 10193 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

PAZOS

179 
WWUS54 KLUB 072152
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
452 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

TXC069-189-072202-
/O.CAN.KLUB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190507T2200Z/
Castro TX-Hale TX-
452 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO AND NORTHWESTERN HALE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for the Panhandle
of Texas.

LAT...LON 3456 10186 3439 10161 3436 10174 3434 10190
      3435 10200 3439 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 220DEG 23KT 3444 10186 

$$

TXC437-072200-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190507T2200Z/
Swisher TX-
452 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SWISHER COUNTY...
        
At 452 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles southwest of Tulia, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 10186 3439 10161 3436 10174 3434 10190
      3435 10200 3439 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 220DEG 23KT 3444 10186 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

PAZOS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
220 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Main focus for this forecast will surround the severe weather
chances this afternoon and evening.

Deep upper level low is moving through AZ this afternoon with SWRLY
flow over the CWA. Quick surface analysis shows the dryline in far
eastern NM with a quasi-stationary/cold front straddling the TX/OK
Panhandles (just north of the FA). Moisture continues to increase
area wide with dewpoints now in the 60Fs. The expectation is that as
the day progresses the dryline will push slightly further east into
the CWA as the cold front drops further south and a surface low
develops in far eastern NM. This will effectively create a triple
point near and around our far NW counties. As diurnal heating
combines with ample upper level energy provide by the upper level
low convection will develop south of the cold front and along the
dryline.

All severe parameters tell the story of area wide scattered severe
weather. In general, guidance continues to show steep lapse rates of
8-9 C/km (thanks to afternoon mid-level cooling), MUCAPES of 2500-
3500 J/kg and Bulk Shear values of ~40-45 kts. This will favor
supercell development with all hazards in play. Initial threats will
be very large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.
As the evening progresses the threat for tornados goes up due the
increasing low level jet and low level helicity values. The area
with maximum tornado threat will be near the position of the front
in the far eastern extreme Texas Panhandle.

The main uncertainties for this forecast surround the amount of
cirrus currently over much of the FA and the eventual placement of
the dryline and front. Both of these things could limit convection
or convection placement.

Tomorrow, will be a down day as as a Pacific front pushes much of
the moisture east and SW surface flow advects warmer and drier air
into the area. A cold front is progged to move through the FA late
Wednesday into early Thursday. This will force any residual moisture
south of the area. There is a slight chance that precip could
develop along the cold front early Thursday morning. For now we have
keep the forecast dry but that could change in later iterations.
Friday, another upper level low will develop off the coast of
California. This will place us under SWRLY flow and allow for
moisture to return to the region, increasing our rain shower and
thunderstorm chances late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1123 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

TXZ021>044-080430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1123 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and evening across the entire region. The greatest risk will
occur across the northern Rolling Plains and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle. The expected threats this afternoon will be hail to
the size of baseballs, wind gusts 70 to 80 mph and isolated
tornadoes. In addition, heavy rainfall may cause localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.