Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Storms were firing along a somewhat diffuse theta-e axis and
surface convergence zone this afternoon, though with a rapidly
weakening or completely gone cap and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg plus
good daytime heating, it's not too surprising they're going up.
They are also encountering a very moisture-rich environment with
dewpoints in the 60s, even some 70s...incredible for July. Locally
heavy rainfall and flooding will be likely once again. DCAPE will
be on the rise through the evening into the 1100-1200 J/kg, so
we'll also be watching for a few downbursts as these rain
themselves out.

Cotton farmers will like to hear that a ridge of high pressure will
be building over the next few days. Tuesday will likely be our
hottest day as thicknesses increase by approximately 2-4dam,
especially over the Rolling Plains. They actually decrease slightly
on Wednesday, so slightly "cooler" temps that day...by a degree or
two. A low sliding eastward along the US/Canada border over our
high the next few days will fling a cold front our way, which
interestingly enough appears to make it this far south on late
Wednesday night. Enough moisture will slip under the ridge to
produce another round of nocturnal storm activity. The front will
encounter fairly decent CAPE values across roughly the
northeastern third of our FA that night, so some of the activity
could be robust.

Past this, we'll be keeping an eye on a tropical system in the Gulf
which models currently bring ashore on the upper TX Gulf Coast late
weekend. This track would be the perfect setup for subsidence in
our region, meaning hotter and drier weather...which would be good
news for some around here.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

74/99

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