Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus this afternoon surrounds increasing severe chances
today and tomorrow.

This afternoon, a deep upper level low is slowly making its way on-
shore in southern California as a weak upper level ridge over CO
shifts east. At the surface moisture has begun to return to the
South Plains with dewpoints reaching the 40Fs to 60Fs. While, mid
level upper level ridging/subsidence over the region will limit
storm development for much of the afternoon there will be brief
opportunity for severe storms across the extreme southern Texas
Panhandle and northern South Plain late this afternoon into the
evening. As day time heating combines with lift from a small
shortwave lifting NE across the area, convection could develop along
the bulging dryline set up over the NM/TX border. Deep layer shear
profiles are not overly impressive but, NAM 0-4 km MUCAPES are more
than adequate as are lapse rates. Thus, storms that do form will
move east and be accompanied by large hail and strong wind gusts.

Overnight, as the dryline retreats west low level moisture will
continue to stream into the FA. While drizzle could develop over
portions of the area as moisture rides over existing outflow
boundaries, it is more likely that low clouds will develop.

The environment is expected to be much more volatile tomorrow across
the entire FA with another day of widespread severe weather. Ample
upper level energy will move into the South Plains thanks to the
approaching upper level low. At the surface as the dryline sharpens,
dewpoints of 60-70F are expected in the moist sector. A surface
low will also be lingering in and around the western extreme
southern Texas Panhandle. Convergence will be strong from the
surface low southward along the dryline. All severe parameters
will be impressive. The NAM is suggesting steep lapse rates of 8
C/km, MUCAPES of 3500-5000 J/kg with Bulk Shear values of ~45
kts. This will favor supercell development with all hazards in
play. The only uncertainty for tomorrow exists around the
abundance of cirrus that will stream out ahead of the upper level
low. This could limit daytime heating and thus convection.
Needless to say we will be watching this closely.

Wednesday, a Pacific front will move across the region advecting
drier air into FA. This will be followed by a cold front from the
north Wednesday evening that will force any residual moisture south
of the area. This will effectively end our precip chances for the
remainder of the week. Late Friday into Saturday, another upper
level low will develop off the coast of California. This will place
us under SWRLY flow and allow for moisture to return to the region,
increasing our rain shower and thunderstorm chances late in the
weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1036 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

TXZ021>044-070345-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1036 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening centered across the northern South Plains
into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across the Rolling Plains and
remainder of the South Plains. Hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts
to 60 mph will be possible along with isolated tornadoes. In
addition, slow moving storms may cause local flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for significant severe weather Tuesday afternoon
into the evening hours. Expect severe thunderstorms to form in a
favorable environment supporting strong wind gusts, large hail
and tornadoes. There will also be a threat for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested.

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