Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
257 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A wet pattern will continue with showers and thunderstorms possible
through the next week. Low clouds have broken up this afternoon
which has allowed some destabilization. Dewpoints are in the upper
50s to low 60s with ML CAPE 1500-2000J/Kg and around 40 kts of
shear. Hi-res models are showing some supercells initiating along
the state line this afternoon where the CAPE gradient is. SPC has
issued a Slight Risk for the western South Plains with large hail
being the main concern.

Overnight upper level flow will become more northwesterly with
storms possible in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Expect some of these storms to make it to our northwestern counties
through Saturday morning. Dewpoint depressions suggest fog is likely
to develop again early Saturday morning.

Upper level flow will generally be zonal through the weekend with
several waves moving through. Ridging will build in as an upper
level low opens up as it crosses the Rockies early next week.
Southerly surface winds will continue to bring moisture up from the
Gulf, with dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s through Tuesday. On
Wednesday the dry line will move east with thunderstorms along it.
With plenty of moisture, expect storms to initiate along boundaries
through next week. Timing and location of thunderstorms is not
certain, but PoPs will generally be 20-40%. With good instability,
strong to severe storms will be possible each day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

08/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1052 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ021>044-040400-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1052 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible later today from
the western South Plains spreading into the central South Plains.
Hail to one inch diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph will be
primary threats from thunderstorms later today. Some of the
slower moving storms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday night and
late Saturday night. Additional bouts of severe storms may occur
each day Sunday through through Thursday as an active weather
pattern becomes entrenched over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested.