Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
355 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
It looks like an active stretch of weather...not surprising as we
head into the first week of May.

First off is our concern for severe convection this
afternoon/evening. A warm front is slowly edging northward as of
2020Z, arcing from our far southern counties, then northwestward
near the TX/NM line where a dryline was impinging on it from eastern
NM. Isolated to widely scattered convection was beginning to develop
along both boundaries, further supported by a passing upper trough.
Moderate instability and deep layer shear, coupled with straight-
line hodographs, will support splitting supercells and the risk of
large hail to 2"+ diameter and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
shear is not overly strong, but with the boundaries and relatively
low LCLs/LFCs, a tornado or two could occur. North of the warm
front, surface-based instability quickly drops off, as is well
illustrated by the wave clouds in the post-frontal stratus. This
will keep this area capped in the near-term, and could limit the
eastern extent of the severe risk this evening, though with the
boundaries continuing to advance, the instability will also shift
north and eastward with time.

Storm chances should fade by mid-late evening, but the low-level
moisture will hang around and we could see stratus/fog
development over much of the area late tonight. Hence, we have
included a patchy fog mention for all but the far western and
southern counties late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft behind tonight's departing
shortwave trough and south of the next disturbance moving into the
northern/central High Plains Wednesday should effectively mix the
drier southwesterly flow across most of our CWA by late
afternoon. This will take the better storm chances with it, though
the dryline could hang up near the eastern Rolling Plains and we
have maintained a minimal thunder mention over our far
southeastern zones Wednesday afternoon. East of the dryline,
instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe storm risk.

The ejecting disturbance to our north will then propel a cold front
southward, passing through the South Plains Thursday morning. We
can't completely rule out isolated elevated convection attempting to
develop just behind the front across our eastern counties early
Thursday, but the surface-based severe weather risk will likely be
south of the area by the afternoon hours. However, we could see
(elevated) storm chances increase Thursday night into early Friday
as the next ripple in the upper level flow drives lift above the
lingering surface ridging. Details become murkier by the weekend,
but could still be unsettled at times, initially as a warm front
lifts back across the region Saturday and then as the next
iteration of the western trough reloads and provides our next
round of southwest flow aloft from Sunday into the first part of
next week. We haven't gotten bogged down in the details, but
generally have a low thunder mention for much of the CWA from
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

TXZ021>044-010000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
favoring locations along and east of the Interstate 27 and
Highway 87 Corridor. The strongest of storms could produce
hail to golf ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong or severe thunderstorms may develop Wednesday
afternoon, mainly across the far eastern Rolling Plains and
extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. Daily chances for severe
storms are also possible from Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

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