Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
649 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.AVIATION...
Main concern is on convection, currently over eastern NM, that is
propagating northeastward. If it maintains its current speed and
track (and keeps redeveloping on the southern flank) it could
impact both KLBB and KPVW in the 02Z-04Z window and KCDS a couple
hours later. Some of these storms could even be on the
strong/severe side. Outside of the convection, MVFR to low VFR
ceilings will occasionally visit the terminals through the
evening, with a period of MVFR to IFR more likely early Monday.
However, unlike the past several days, these low clouds should
scattered/lift much earlier in the day, particularly at KPVW and
KLBB as breezy and drier southwesterly winds overspread the
Caprock.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Although most low stratus has cleared out of eastern New Mexico
into the western South Plains, cirrus has kept us from heating up
and therefore a stout cap remains overhead. If the cirrus can
clear out within the next few hours or so, the cap has a chance to
break by early evening and develop some isolated convection near
the Texas/New Mexico state line and spread east. Everything from
earlier's discussion still holds in regards to the severe chances
if convection can initiate.

An upper level low will drop into the four corners region on
Monday evening pushing the dryline to the edge of the caprock or
so. Drier surface air will filter in on the caprock behind the
dryline. Models are fairly bearish with convective chances for
Monday afternoon. However, this is likely due to an increase in
capping which may very well prevent any convection from forming
east of the dryline. An upper level jet will be displaced far
enough to our west that it will have little to no impact on lift
locally. We may begin to see some lift spread over early Tuesday
morning which could eventually garner some early morning
convection. A Pacific front/dryline will sweep through during the
day on Tuesday ridding us of low level moisture and precipitation
chances for at least one day. A cold front will attempt to move
through on Wednesday but there are some model discrepancies in
regards to how far south this front will advance. At the same
time, a short wave will move out of northern Mexico into West
Texas. This short wave will bring a considerable amount of lift
overhead on Wednesday. Precipitation chances will depend on how
far south the front will advance. It will most likely move south
of the Rolling Plains leaving the area with elevated storms on
Wednesday. Precipitation chances are somewhat nebulous for this
weekend but some semblance of southwest flow aloft will keep
thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ022>026-028>036.

&&

23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1119 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

TXZ021>044-270430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1119 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Panhandle this
afternoon. These storms will spread east and northeast during the
late afternoon into tonight. Storms will quickly become severe
and will produce hail to the size of tennis balls, wind gusts to
70 mph, and isolated tornadoes. There is also a threat for heavy
rainfall and flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect until 1 AM
Monday generally along and north of a Morton to Crosbyton to
Paducah line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm development will be possible again late Monday into
Monday evening, mainly across the eastern South Plains and the
Rolling Plains. There is a marginal risk that storms that form
will become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across the western South
Plains this afternoon spreading eastward through the evening.