Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
621 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.AVIATION...
A thunderstorm complex was moving across the extreme southern
Texas Panhandle early this evening. Some of these storms may
affect the KCDS terminal around 04-06Z but confidence is too low
to mention in the TAF at this time. Isolated storms will continue
to be a low possibility at KPVW and KLBB through the evening as
well. A cold front will move through the region after midnight
shifting winds to the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level low currently over the 4 Corners region continues to
gain more of a negative tilt as it approaches the region. WV imagery
shows 2 main separate areas of lift associated with the low: 1 over
southern NM and the other over northeastern NM. The main area of
diffluence (currently over northeastern NM) is expected to remain
over the TX Panhandle as the upper low moves eastward. Today's
severe threat will be associated with this area of diffluence. The
secondary lift over southern NM is what will drive most convective
chances this afternoon and evening. While there is the potential for
thunderstorms to become severe across the FA, our northern zones
will have the best chance at seeing severe storms due to more
favorable upper level diffluence and less inhibition. The main
threats will be damaging straight line winds and large hail, though
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. MLCAPE on average is
forecasted to be 1000-1500 J/kg.

Tomorrow will be on the breezy side as a surface low passes to our
north following the upper low. Otherwise tomorrow will be nice and
sunny with highs in the 70s. The forecast is relatively quiet Sunday
through mid/late next week as mostly upper ridging dominates the
region. The GFS tries to develop showers/thunderstorms under the
ridge axis late Tuesday into Wednesday, but aside from surface
moisture there is little to support any mention in the forecast.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1102 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

TXZ021>044-230415-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1102 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Initiation of thunderstorms is expected to occur this afternoon
across the northwestern South Plains and the extreme southwestern
Panhandle across areas from Muleshoe to Friona, Bovina, and
Dimmitt, with the thunderstorms then expected to move eastward.
Initiation of thunderstorms will be more difficult, but still
possible, further southward into the South Plains. There is a
marginal to slight risk of some thunderstorms becoming severe
across the extreme southern Panhandle and the South Plains. Severe
thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to
the size of golf balls. A tornado or two may also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.