Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

313 
WWUS84 KLUB 181932
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044-190345-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0007.190818T2100Z-190819T0500Z/
Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LEADING TO
POTENTIAL NEW STARTS AND SPREAD OF EXISTING FIRES FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...

* Timing...This afternoon and evening.

* Dry Lightning...high-based thunderstorms will generate
  lightning in many areas that will not receive wetting rain. 

* Wind...Potential for thunderstorm outflow wind gusts from 50 
  to 60 mph. 

* Fuels...Extremely dry.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop can spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning is discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or already occurring. These conditions can create
rapid wildfire growth.

&&

$$

378 
WWUS84 KLUB 190135 AAA
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
835 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044-190500-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190819T0500Z/
Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
835 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LEADING TO
POTENTIAL NEW STARTS AND SPREAD OF EXISTING FIRES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...ROLLING PLAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN 
SOUTH PLAINS...

* Timing...Through late evening.

* Dry Lightning...high-based thunderstorms will generate 
  lightning in many areas that will not receive wetting rain.

* Wind...Potential for thunderstorm outflow wind gusts from 50 
  to 60 mph or higher.

* Fuels...Extremely dry.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop can spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning is discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or already occurring. These conditions can create
rapid wildfire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
310 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Upper heights remained suppressed this morning with modest
westerly flow aloft and a 300 millibar jet core still crossing the
Texas Panhandle. Upper heights will slowly begin to rise mainly
just to our west today and the jet will shift east, but our area
will remain in right entrance lift zone into the early evening. A
very hot day is expected with slight height and thickness rises
and we will edge forecast highs a degree or two above yesterdays
highs. This will place the entire area into or right on the verge
of Heat Index criteria, and we are opting to issue a Heat Advisory
area-wide. The lift mentioned above will interact with southwest
to northeast mid level moisture plume still crossing the Texas
South Plains, and modest low level convergence and extremely
strong heating to generate a chance again of late afternoon and
evening high-based thunderstorms. The majority of solutions from
large scale to short-term generate some degree of thunderstorms
through much the same zone as we have seen the past several days,
roughly southwest to northeast crossing the central South Plains
late this afternoon and moving into the eastern South Plains and
Rolling Plains this evening. Storms again will have a chance for
isolated 60 mph wind gusts and only limited meaningful rain.

Later tonight and Monday the upper ridge is expected to build
about 30 meters at the 500 millibar level more or less squarely
overhead and shove remaining moisture plume mostly north and west
of the area. Monday will be hot again, we increased slightly above
guidance again, but should be difficult for storms to generate and
we have retained the previous dry forecast. Tuesday there still
are signs of a very weak split in the ridge occurring over our
area with ridge centers slightly west and east of our area.
Question is if heating of lingering moisture will be sufficient
to overcome weak mid level capping inversions. Solutions support
at least a slight chance of afternoon storms mainly over northern
and western areas, which is within the weakness aloft and where
one might conceive this to occur anyway. We support low mention
of thunder this area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures
still hot Tuesday, but appear may be a notch under Mondays highs.

The upper weakness further should lead to lower heights mid to
late week. Upper level northwest flow mid week favors at least a
low chance of thunder favoring north and west areas. Uncertainty
if the pattern late week into the weekend will be fairly quiet
north to northeast aloft, or if the weakness will further gain
momentum leading to better cooling and continuing thunder chances.
Remaining non-committal on both accounts for now. RMcQueen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday evenings high-based thunderstorms generated a number of
apparent lightning-related fire starts from the eastern South
Plains into the Rolling Plains along with enough strong wind gusts
to invigorate a previous hot spot or two. Rainfall was spotty but
no areas appeared to receive enough to lower fire danger for later
today especially with a very hot day expected near 110 degrees
over the Rolling Plains. Another opportunity for high-based
storms will occur later today, much as Saturday and prior days,
and we are re-issuing a Red Flag Warning for the same concerns of
high-based thunderstorms with lightning starts with very high ERC
values and a risk of spread from the outflow winds. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT
tonight for TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ021>044.

&&

05/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
320 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

TXZ021>044-182030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
320 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon and early evening for
the Texas South Plains, Rolling Plains, and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle. High temperatures of 105 are expected on the Caprock
and around 110 over the Rolling Plains where Heat Index values
also will be near 110. There will be a risk again for isolated
wind gusts near 60 mph from late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
There also is a threat for dry lightning storms and potential for
new fire starts and spread of existing fires. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect this afternoon and evening for the Rolling Plains and
adjacent eastern South Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Hazardous weather is not expected.