Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Lubbock, TX

774 
WWUS84 KLUB 170105
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
705 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039-040-170215-
/O.EXP.KLUB.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190217T0100Z/
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-
Yoakum-Terry-
705 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Strong winds earlier today have subsided and relative humidity
values also were recovering. Elevated fire danger lingering in the
extreme southwestern South Plains will ease as well by 800 pm this
evening. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
431 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A negatively tilted upper level trough will move into the central
CONUS today as the first of a series of lobes of energy that will
affect the western half of the country over the next week. Our
mid level flow will remain mainly zonal through the weekend before
winds back late Monday in response to the next shortwave trough
digging into the desert southwest. This system is progged to dig
more deeply than indicated late night with the axis passing late
Tuesday afternoon. As this happens, another circulation develops
out west and appears to eject on Thursday with yet another
replacement core forming across the Sierra Nevada as we remain
situated under southwesterly flow aloft.

Model depictions of upper level winds have backed off about 25% over
last night's data with speeds down to 150kt at H3 and 75kt at H5
though some increase is indicated late this afternoon.  The near
surface environment is made complex thanks to a frontal boundary
draped across the area and this rather cold air. This cold air is
somewhat shallow (about 425m at AMA as of 00Z/16) and around 1000m
at OUN so the westerlies should be able to drive the colder airmass
back.  There is much lower correlation in the H7 wind field than
typical across the various model solutions both spatially and
temporally though a general trend of higher winds across the
southwestern zones seems to be indicate.  Given the H7 gradient,
expected mostly clear skies this afternoon, and general pattern,
have trended somewhat above MOS and certainly above deterministic
guidance for this afternoon (See Fire Wx below.)  Will issue a wind
advisory for areas generally west of I27.

Sunday looks to be the most pleasant of the bunch and then a cold
front surges in for Monday which will usher in colder air.  Then,
Monday night, increasing moisture in isentropic ascent regime will
give us a risk of wintry precipitation.  As we will be in
southwesterly flow, we will be dealing with the classic warm air
advection warm nose that models struggle with every time.  The H8
temps appear a bit warmer today and this could set the stage for a
mix of IP and perhaps even FZRA during the day Tuesday.  Moisture
depth does appear deeper today than the past few nights (almost to
the dendritic growth zone) so this will be something to watch.
Precip should taper by late afternoon with perhaps some low end
rain chances again into Thursday perhaps best out east. The
challenge is that NWP is not handling these multi- lobed systems
well at all and so plenty of uncertainty exist with how things
will actually pan out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Min afternoon humidity values in the lower teens will combine with
winds up near 30 mph to create critical fire weather conditions.
ERC values in the 75-89th percentile are supportive of a red flag
warning generally west of the I-27 corridor this afternoon. Winds
will predominantly be southwesterly today becoming westerly this
evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039-040.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

26/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
423 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

TXZ021>044-162230-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
423 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Windy conditions, especially west of the Caprock Escarpment, will
increase travel hazards and lead to critical fire weather
conditions. A wind advisory and red flag warning are in effect
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.