Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1215 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Not a lot of changes from the update earlier this afternoon. A
leading MCV continues to move east out of the region. A surface
low over SW IA is expected to move east this afternoon and evening
with a cold front pushing south through the area through tonight.

This system will be a focus for thunderstorm development, mainly
this evening. As mentioned before, have increased PoPs for NE
portions of the CWA as model guidance trends suggest these areas
have a better chance for seeing thunderstorms than previous
cycles. However, this is still a somewhat conditional threat,
which is why PoPs have not been raised higher. Models still
suggest a 700mb temp of 12C or higher for most of the warm sector.
This is usually warm enough mid level temps to prevent any storm
development. However, the boundary layer is somewhat unusually
warm for both temps and dewpoints. This results in MLCAPE of 4000+
J/kg and a much weaker CAP than is generally thought. Any storms
that develop may become severe with wind as the primary threat,
but large hail will also be a threat earlier on.

The front, and effective front, should be just south of the CWA
by 12z Tues. A few lingering storms will be possible across
southern portions of the CWA into the morning hours. The remainder
of Tues should be dry and cooler than today. Still, with ample
insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

The upper ridge over the southern U.S. will continue to build west
through Tues. Over the CWA, the pattern will switch to NW flow
with cooler weather expected through Thurs. Heights begin rising
Fri and continue through the weekend. Have therefore trended temps
warmer for Fri through the weekend.

Chances for precip through the remainder of the week are somewhat
limited. While the threat is not zero, have kept PoPs on the low
side as track of individual s/w are uncertain at this time.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will move southward early in the period
ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the area
between 06-12Z. These thunderstorms will affect KCOU through 07Z,
but the remaining terminals are expected to remain dry. Otherwise
some low clouds with mainly low VFR or possibly high MVFR ceilings
will move into the terminals late tonight and on Tuesday, but then
clear out late of Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Winds
will turn out of the northwest behind the front.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected during the period. A
cold front will move through the terminals late tonight, and low
VFR or high MVFR ceilings will move into the terminal behind it.  Winds
will turn out of the northwest behind the front.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1032 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-140345-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
1032 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely into the overnight hours, mainly across
south central Illinois. Damaging winds are the primary threat along
with a tornado or two and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois Tuesday morning. The chance for thunderstorms
returns to the region Thursday night through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Britt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
911 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     TSTM WND GST     TROY                    38.98N 90.98W
08/12/2019  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM
            TROY. CORRECTED TIME OF REPORT. RETIRED NWS
            EMPLOYEE REPORTS 60 MPH WIND GUST IN TROY
            MO.

&&

KANOFSKY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1023 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

ILZ098-100-MOZ061-063-130400-
Calhoun IL-Madison IL-St. Louis MO-St. Charles MO-
1023 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...NORTHEASTERN
ST. CHARLES AND NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1021 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Orchard Farms, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Louis, St. Charles, St. Peters, Florissant, Granite City, Alton,
Maryland Heights, Hazelwood, Collinsville, Edwardsville, Ferguson,
Godfrey, Jennings, St. Ann, Glen Carbon, Bridgeton, Bellefontaine
Neighbors, Wood River, Troy and Bethalto.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 in Illinois between exits 23 and 30.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 224 and 231.

This also includes Confluence State Park, First Missouri State
Capitol Historic Site, and Horseshoe Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for southwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 3866 8988 3866 9006 3869 9020 3872 9021
      3873 9021 3875 9018 3877 9017 3877 9018
      3875 9019 3870 9027 3878 9061 3895 9056
      3893 9032 3892 9031 3893 9027 3889 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 280DEG 33KT 3886 9049

Carney

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1227 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

MOZ050-051-060-130615-
Montgomery MO-Warren MO-Callaway MO-
1227 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
NORTHEASTERN CALLAWAY AND WEST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

At 1227 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fulton, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, New Florence, Williamsburg, Mineola, Big Spring, High Hill,
Rhineland, Kingdom City, McKittrick, Danville, Americus and Reform.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 148 and 179.

This also includes Graham Cave State Park.

LAT...LON 3895 9135 3870 9139 3871 9140 3871 9148
      3870 9150 3881 9198 3895 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 277DEG 27KT 3888 9190

Gosselin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

MOZ051-052-060-061-130645-
Montgomery MO-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-Warren MO-
1258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

At 1258 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Big Spring, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wentzville, Lake St. Louis, Troy, Warrenton, Wright City, Montgomery
City, St. Paul, Moscow Mills, New Florence, Jonesburg, Truesdale,
Hawk Point, Innsbrook, New Melle, Bellflower, Josephville, Buell, Big
Spring, Flint Hill and Foristell.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 175 and 212.

LAT...LON 3876 9156 3904 9148 3902 9100 3886 9075
      3867 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 277DEG 27KT 3884 9147

Gosselin

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
218 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

ILZ100-101-MOZ061-063-064-130800-
St. Clair IL-Madison IL-St. Louis MO-St. Charles MO-
St. Louis City MO-
218 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MADISON AND NORTHERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES
AND NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ST.
LOUIS CITY UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Country Club Hills, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Louis, Belleville, Granite City, O'Fallon, East St. Louis,
Collinsville, Edwardsville, Fairview Heights, Cahokia, Jennings,
Swansea, Glen Carbon, Shiloh, Bellefontaine Neighbors, Wood River,
Troy, Maryville, Mascoutah, Pontoon Beach and Centreville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 21 and 24.
 Interstate 55 in Illinois near exit 23.
 Interstate 64 in Illinois between exits 9 and 27.

This also includes Scott Joplin Historic Site, Confluence State Park,
and Horseshoe Lake State Park.

LAT...LON 3859 9032 3865 9030 3870 9026 3887 9024
      3886 8971 3850 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 268DEG 39KT 3872 9027

Gosselin