Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS St. Louis, MO

097 
WWUS53 KLSX 242151
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
451 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

MOC055-242159-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190324T2230Z/
Crawford MO-
451 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3817 9110 3821 9097 3820 9077 3799 9078
      3797 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 257DEG 20KT 3806 9106 

$$

MOC221-242230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190324T2230Z/
Washington MO-
451 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 449 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Anthonies Mill,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public reported one inch hail 4 north of Steelville earlier
         this evening.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Anthonies Mill, Richwoods and Latty. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9110 3821 9097 3820 9077 3799 9078
      3797 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 257DEG 20KT 3806 9106 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Maples

853 
WWUS53 KLSX 242218
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
518 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

MOC221-242227-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190324T2230Z/
Washington MO-
518 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3817 9110 3821 9097 3820 9077 3799 9078
      3797 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 257DEG 20KT 3810 9086 

$$

Maples

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
421 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Thunderstorms have developed within the last 90 minutes from
central through south central MO in response to large scale
forcing with the upper low in northwest MO and subsequent
reduction in CIN, and were pushing into east central MO. As
discussed in the previous AFD update, the coverage of storms will
continue to increase and the greatest severe threat will reside
the remainder of this afternoon and into this the first half of
this evening across east central and southeast MO into southwest
IL along and ahead of the advancing surface low and southwestward
trailing cold front. The latest mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE on the
order of 500-1000 J/KG in this region, and further destabilization
is expected in response to low level moisture/warm thermal
advection topped by steep mid level lapse rates. Deep layer shear
continues to support supercells with large hail the primary
threat, although there will also be a limited tornado threat
centered across southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of
the advancing surface low and where surface winds are forecast to
locally back and a west-east warm front will also reside.

The thunderstorm threat should pass to the east by late evening.
From late evening through overnight hours I am expecting low
stratus to become dominate within the low level north-northeast
flow/CAA in the wake of the the surface low and cold front.
Scattered showers are also expected from the late evening through
overnight, especially across IL and eastern MO attendant with the
southeastward moving upper low and vort max.

Monday looks like a chilly day across the region. There will be a
threat of spotty showers across the southeast half of the CWA in
the morning attendant with trailing vort max. Stratus will
blanket the region during the morning and then slowly decrease
north to south during the afternoon. The combination of the clouds
and north-northeast winds and low level CAA will result in highs
some 5 to 15 degrees below normal for late March.

Continued clearing to the south is expected on Monday night as a
northwest flow short wave passes helping build high pressure into
the region and strengthening the low level CAA. Much of the area
will see below freezing temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Surface high pressure centered in the Great Lakes on Tuesday will
still influence sensible weather due to its southwestward
extension well into the lower-mid MS Valley. Highs Tuesday will
slightly warmer than Monday but will still remain below average.

Finally a big warm will commence from mid-late week - first as
ridging aloft builds into the area on Wednesday and low level flow
becomes southerly, and then later in the week as the flow aloft
becomes west to southwest and the WAA regime persists. It also
appears that during the later part of the week and into the first
part of the weekend the threat of precipitation will ramp up,
although the ECMWF and GFS vary a bit on all the details. The GFS
has good low level moisture return and a weak disturbance aloft
bringing a chance of showers by Thursday, while Friday into
Saturday there will be a migratory trof and associated surface low
and frontal system bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop between 20-21z
across the region in advance of a cold front and upper level
disturbance. The greatest concentration will be from the St. Louis
region across southeast MO and southwest IL between 23-02z with
the potential for strong-severe storms. The new TAFS for the St.
Louis area terminals reflect this increased thunderstorm threat.
I think KUIN will mainly see showers which is also reflected this
evening. Later this evening and overnight flight conditions will
deteriorate through MVFR and into IFR as stratus becomes
predominant in the wake of the low pressure system and cold
front. There could also be some spotty rain showers overnight and
into early Monday morning. The IFR flight conditions should
persist through the first half of Monday morning with gradual
improvement from the late morning into the afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the terminal later this
afternoon and evening. I have centered the main threat in the
23-02z time frame although storms could begin as early as 22z.
Some of the storms could be strong and at this point have gusts
and IFR flight conditions will a TEMPO group. Later this evening
and overnight flight conditions will deteriorate through MVFR and
into IFR by 06z, as stratus becomes predominant in the wake of
the low pressure system and cold front. There could also be some
spotty rain showers overnight and into early Monday morning. The
IFR flight conditions should persist through the first half of
Monday morning with gradual improvement from the late morning into
the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
355 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-251200-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
355 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through late this evening. A few severe
storms are possible mainly for east-central and southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois and especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging
winds also possible.

Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing on the Mississippi River
north of Saint Louis and on the Illinois River at Hardin. See the
appropriate Flood Statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Major river flooding is ongoing at Saverton Lock and Dam on the
Mississippi River, otherwise, several locations on the Mississippi
River will continue to be in or are forecast to reach moderate
flooding. Moderate flooding is also forecast on the Missouri River
at Jefferson City and on the Illinois River at Hardin. See the
appropriate Flood Statements for specific details.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening for
east-central and southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             7 WNW CUBA              38.12N 91.51W
03/24/2019  M0.25 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
409 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             CUBA                    38.06N 91.40W
03/24/2019  M0.25 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             4 N STEELVILLE          38.02N 91.35W
03/24/2019  M1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

CVKING