Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS St. Louis, MO

324 
WWUS53 KLSX 012156
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
456 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

MOC127-205-012230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190601T2230Z/
Marion MO-Shelby MO-
456 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MARION AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 456 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Emden, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe City, Warren, Emden and Philadelphia. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9154 3969 9168 3968 9171 3966 9172
      3979 9200 3993 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 288DEG 21KT 3982 9186 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

585 
WWUS53 KLSX 012213
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
513 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

MOC127-205-012230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190601T2230Z/
Marion MO-Shelby MO-
513 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARION AND EAST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 513 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Warren, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Philadelphia and Emden. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 9157 3969 9168 3968 9171 3967 9172
      3977 9189 3992 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 289DEG 19KT 3979 9176 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
442 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Thunderstorms have finally started to develop near a cold front
which was poised to move through the region. There is also a pre-
frontal trough across the area which could provide an additional
focus for SHRA/TSRA development.

Now that the storms have started to develop, the updrafts are
strengthening rapidly. These storms were developing in an
environment characterized by little cloud cover (read: ample
insolation), CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, H7-H5 lapse rates of
6.5-7 deg C/km, and around 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear. BUFKIT
soundings suggest that large hail is the primary threat,
especially with any rotating storms. Clusters of storms would also
pose a damaging wind threat. SHRA/TSRA should simultaneously shift
southeastward and decrease in coverage through late evening.

There is some uncertainty regarding the southern extent of the
severe weather threat prior to 06z. Storms will be moving towards
the southeast, but instability will wane with the loss of daytime
heating.

Overnight lows should be around 60 degrees, which is similar to
last night and near seasonal normals.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

A building ridge to the west and a deepening trough to the east
will place the LSX CWA beneath northwest flow aloft for Sunday and
Sunday night. With no upper disturbances and a drier post-frontal
air mass in place, dry weather is expected during this time. Highs
will be in the mid/upper 70s, which is several degrees below
normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will be in the 50s,
which is also below normal for this time of year. Radiational
cooling may allow some spots to cool a bit lower than currently
forecast.

By Monday, the surface high pressure center over the Great Lakes will
gradually shift southeastward towards the Ohio Valley while the
upper ridge axis also begins to shift eastward and de-amplify.
Highs will remain below average on Monday due to the influence of
the high pressure center which will have suppressed the cold front
farther to the south. Monday should be dry across most of the LSX
CWA, but parts of central MO will be near a sharpening baroclinic
zone and isolated SHRA/TSRA cannot be entirely ruled out.

After the upper ridge axis shifts eastward, model solutions
depict a slow-moving upper low over the southwestern CONUS which
eventually lifts northeastward during the week. This will bring
several potential periods of SHRA/TSRA to the region between
Tuesday and next Saturday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible at any of the
terminals during the first 0-4 hours of the valid TAF period, but
the higher chances should hold off until a cold front moves
through the region later this afternoon and this evening. The
most likely time period for SHRA/TSRA at the terminals appears to
be a few hours slower than the previous forecast. The latest
thinking for SHRA/TSRA timing is roughly 01/22z - 02/02z at KUIN,
01/23 - 02/03 at KCOU, and 02/00-04z at KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS. VFR
conditions will prevail outside of SHRA/TSRA at all terminals
except KUIN where a short period of post-frontal MVFR ceilings
may persist for an hour or two. Winds will become northwesterly
behind the front at all terminals.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Lewis MO-Marion MO.

IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
421 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021230-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
421 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon near a cold front. Some
of the storms may be severe and capable of producing large hail up
to the size of golf balls as well as damaging winds of 60 mph or
greater.

Major flooding is ongoing along many rivers, including main stem
rivers and some tributaries.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms across parts of the area from
Monday night through Friday.

Major flooding will continue along many rivers, including main stem
rivers and some tributaries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening across
parts of Missouri and Illinois.

Kanofsky

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             MEYER                   40.15N 91.49W
06/01/2019  M1.00 INCH       ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             CANTON                  40.14N 91.52W
06/01/2019  E0.25 INCH       LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
421 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             LA GRANGE               40.04N 91.50W
06/01/2019  E0.70 INCH       LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
426 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             LA GRANGE               40.04N 91.50W
06/01/2019  M1.50 INCH       LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             LA GRANGE               40.04N 91.50W
06/01/2019  M1.25 INCH       LEWIS              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL, HAS BEEN
            HAILING FOR AT LEAST 5 MINUTES.

&&

MAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
435 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

MOZ026-027-012200-
Marion MO-Shelby MO-
435 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARION AND NORTHEASTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 435 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelbyville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Shelbyville, Emden, Philadelphia and Bethel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3995 9195 3988 9166 3966 9180 3966 9182
      3983 9218 3995 9209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 294DEG 28KT 3987 9203

Britt