Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2019
River Flood Warning 45, NWS St. Louis, MO
NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Mar 9, 2019, 1:42 PM CST for Marion County, Missouri. It took effect at Mar 9, 2019, 7:41 PM CST. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 9, 2019, 1:42 PM CST (19:42 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 9, 2019, 7:41 PM CST
- Expired
- Mar 10, 2019, 9:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS St. Louis, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Marion County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point South Fabius River near Taylor (TAYM7). The gauge peaked at 10.45 ft at Mar 10, 2019, 1:00 AM CST.
- Action stage
- 8 ft
- Minor stage
- 10 ft
- Moderate stage
- 14 ft
- Major stage
- 19 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05500000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
422
WGUS43 KLSX 091942
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
142 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Missouri...
...North Fabius River near Ewing
...Middle Fabius River near Ewing
...South Fabius River near Taylor
...North River at Palmyra
.This Flood Warning is a result of up to an inch and a quarter
of rainfall the past 24 hours and less than 0.2 inches forecast
in the next 48 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC111-101942-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0043.190311T0417Z-190313T0900Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.190311T0417Z.190311T1800Z.190312T0900Z.NO/
142 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the North Fabius River near Ewing
* from Sunday evening to late Tuesday night.
* At 12:30 PM Saturday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late
evening and crest near 11.6 feet by Monday early afternoon. The
river is forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 8.02 9.4 11.5 10.7 7.9 6.4
&&
LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154
$$
MOC111-101942-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0044.190310T1120Z-190313T0430Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190310T1120Z.190311T0600Z.190312T0430Z.NO/
142 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* from Sunday morning to Tuesday evening.
* At 12:30 PM Saturday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
and crest near 12.9 feet by early Monday morning. The river is
forecast to fall below flood stage by Monday before midnight.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 7.69 12.1 12.9 11.5 7.8 5.5
&&
LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162
$$
MOC127-101942-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0045.190310T0504Z-190312T1600Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190310T0504Z.190311T0000Z.190311T1600Z.NO/
142 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the South Fabius River near Taylor
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 12:30 PM Saturday the stage was 7.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and
crest near 11.3 feet by tomorrow evening. The river is forecast to
fall below flood stage by late Monday morning.
* Impact: At 10.5 feet...County Road 117 northwest of Philadelphia
floods.
* Impact: At 10.1 feet...Marion County Road 310 begins flooding just
west of the east end of the road, the intersection with County Road
365.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 7.16 10.2 9.9 7.0 4.7 3.6
&&
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
3989 9176
$$
MOC127-101942-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0046.190310T0406Z-190311T1440Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.190310T0406Z.190310T0600Z.190310T1440Z.NO/
142 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the North River at Palmyra
* from this evening to Monday morning.
* At 12:30 PM Saturday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and
crest near 13.6 feet by after midnight tonight. The river is
forecast to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Impact: At 13.5 feet...County Road 333, east of Palmyra, begins to
flood.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
North River
Palmyra 13.0 9.82 13.4 8.8 6.4 5.4 5.1
&&
LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170
$$5 follow-up statements
122
WGUS83 KLSX 092248
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
448 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
North Fabius River near Ewing
Middle Fabius River near Ewing
South Fabius River near Taylor
North River at Palmyra
.This Flood Warning is a result of up to an inch and a quarter
of rainfall the past 24 hours and less than 0.2 inches forecast
in the next 48 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC111-102247-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0043.190311T1200Z-190313T0824Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.190311T1200Z.190312T0000Z.190312T0824Z.NO/
448 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the North Fabius River near Ewing
* from Monday morning to late Tuesday night.
* At 3:30 PM Saturday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Monday morning
and to crest near 11.4 feet by Monday evening. The river is
forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 8.57 9.9 11.0 10.7 8.0 6.4
&&
LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154
$$
MOC111-102247-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0044.190310T0900Z-190313T0742Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190310T0900Z.190311T0600Z.190312T0742Z.NO/
448 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* from early Sunday morning to late Tuesday night.
* At 3:30 PM Saturday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early Sunday
and to crest near 12.8 feet by early Monday morning. The river is
forecast to fall below flood stage by early Tuesday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 10.19 12.2 12.8 11.5 8.0 5.9
&&
LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162
$$
MOC127-102247-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0045.190310T0320Z-190312T2000Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190310T0320Z.190311T0000Z.190311T2000Z.NO/
448 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the South Fabius River near Taylor
* from Saturday evening to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 3:30 PM Saturday the stage was 8.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and to
crest near 11.0 feet by tomorrow evening. The river is forecast to
fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact: At 11.0 feet...Both banks begin to overflow low level
farmlands.
* Impact: At 10.5 feet...County Road 117 northwest of Philadelphia
floods.
* Impact: At 10.2 feet...The river begins flooding the right bank
just downstream of the County Road 319 bridge at the gage.
* Impact: At 10.1 feet...Marion County Road 310 begins flooding just
west of the east end of the road, the intersection with County Road
365.
* Impact: At 9.5 feet...Flood Stage. Minor flooding begins.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 8.49 10.5 10.5 7.0 4.7 3.6
&&
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
3989 9176
$$
MOC127-102247-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0046.190309T2243Z-190311T0634Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.190309T2019Z.190310T0000Z.190310T0634Z.NO/
448 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the North River at Palmyra
* from this afternoon to late Sunday night.
* At 3:30 PM Saturday the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 14.3 feet by this evening, then
fall below flood stage after midnight tonight.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet...Marion County Rd 341 north of Palmyra
inundated. Significant agricultural land flooding...right bank.
* Impact: At 13.5 feet...County Road 333, east of Palmyra, begins to
flood.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
North River
Palmyra 13.0 14.19 11.1 7.8 6.1 5.2 5.0
&&
LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170
$$629
WGUS83 KLSX 100144
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
744 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
North Fabius River near Ewing
Middle Fabius River near Ewing
South Fabius River near Taylor
North River at Palmyra
.This Flood Warning is a result of up to an inch and a half
of rainfall the past 24 hours and no precipitation forecast
in the next 48 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC111-110144-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0043.190310T1017Z-190313T1236Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.190310T1017Z.190311T1800Z.190312T1236Z.NO/
744 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the North Fabius River near Ewing
* from late tonight to Wednesday morning.
* At 6:30 PM Saturday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow
and to crest near 11.9 feet by tomorrow evening. The river is
forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 9.87 11.2 12.1 11.1 8.2 6.5
&&
LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154
$$
MOC111-110144-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0044.190310T1030Z-190313T0112Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190310T1030Z.190311T0600Z.190312T0112Z.NO/
744 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* from late tonight to Tuesday evening.
* At 6:30 PM Saturday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow
and to crest near 12.9 feet by early Monday morning. The river is
forecast to fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 11.32 12.1 12.7 10.7 6.9 5.0
&&
LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162
$$
MOC127-110144-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0045.190310T0141Z-190312T2125Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190309T2342Z.190311T0000Z.190311T2125Z.NO/
744 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the South Fabius River near Taylor
* from this evening to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 6:30 PM Saturday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 11.5 feet by tomorrow evening,
then fall below flood stage Monday afternoon.
* Impact: At 11.0 feet...Both banks begin to overflow low level
farmlands.
* Impact: At 10.5 feet...County Road 117 northwest of Philadelphia
floods.
* Impact: At 10.2 feet...The river begins flooding the right bank
just downstream of the County Road 319 bridge at the gage.
* Impact: At 10.1 feet...Marion County Road 310 begins flooding just
west of the east end of the road, the intersection with County Road
365.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 9.73 10.7 10.6 7.7 4.9 3.6
&&
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
3989 9176
$$
MOC127-110144-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190311T1800Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.190309T2019Z.190310T0600Z.190310T1800Z.NO/
744 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
the North River at Palmyra
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 6:30 PM Saturday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.9 feet by after midnight
tonight, then fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/10 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14
North River
Palmyra 13.0 15.59 14.8 9.1 6.4 5.4 5.1
&&
LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170
$$229
WGUS83 KLSX 101212
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
712 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Cuivre River near Troy
North Fabius River near Ewing
Middle Fabius River near Ewing
South Fabius River near Taylor
.This Flood Warning is a result of 1-2 inches of rainfall over the
past 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC111-111212-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-190313T2149Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190310T0325Z.190311T1800Z.190312T2149Z.NO/
712 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
tThe North Fabius River near Ewing
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 6:30 AM Sunday the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.2 feet Monday afternoon.
* Impact: At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins
to flood.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15
North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.19 15.1 13.1 8.9 6.7 5.9
&&
LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154
$$
MOC113-111212-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190311T1912Z/
/TRYM7.1.ER.190310T0140Z.190310T0830Z.190310T1912Z.NO/
712 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cuivre River near Troy
* Until this afternoon.
* At 7:00 AM Sunday the stage was 22.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river recently crested at 23.2 feet earlier this morning and
is forecast to fall back below flood stage this afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15
Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 22.84 13.3 9.0 8.0 7.6 7.3
&&
LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090
$$
MOC111-111212-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0044.000000T0000Z-190312T0600Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190310T2100Z.190311T0000Z.190311T0600Z.NO/
712 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* Until early Monday morning.
* At 6:30 AM Sunday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage late this
afternoon and crest near 12.1 feet this evening.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15
Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 11.57 11.8 10.3 6.9 5.0 4.5
&&
LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162
$$
MOC127-111212-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190312T0600Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190309T2342Z.190310T0715Z.190311T0600Z.NO/
712 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The South Fabius River near Taylor
* Until late tonight.
* At 6:46 AM Sunday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to fall back below flood stage late tonight.
&&
Fld Latest 6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15
South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 9.83 9.2 7.0 4.7 3.6 3.3
&&
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
3989 9176
$$914
WGUS83 KLSX 101722
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Missouri...
South Fabius River near
Taylor
.This Flood Warning is a result of 1-2 inches of rainfall over
the past 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC127-111720-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190312T0000Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190309T2342Z.190310T0715Z.190311T0000Z.NO/
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The South Fabius River near Taylor
* Until this evening.
* At 11:30 AM Sunday the stage was 9.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* The river is forecast to fall back below flood stage this evening.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15
South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 9.50 9.0 6.8 4.5 3.4 3.1
&&
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
3989 9176
$$300
WGUS83 KLSX 110200
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
900 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in
Missouri...
South Fabius River near Taylor
.This is the final statement for this flooding event...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC127-110230-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190312T0000Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190309T2342Z.190310T0715Z.190310T1630Z.NO/
900 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the South Fabius River near Taylor.
* At 8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 9.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 11:30 AM Sunday.
* The river will continue falling to 6.5 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15
South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 9.32 9.2 6.5 4.4 3.6 3.4
&&
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
3989 9176
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 9, 11:48 AM CST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 11:48 AM CST, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1148 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
A sharp, slightly negatively tilted trough has pushed over the High
Plains, accompanied by a nearly 100kt mid level jet streak just
downstream from the base of the trough. At the surface, a deep low
has moved into western KS with a warm front stretching to the SE
into northern AR. This cyclone is progged to track to the NE, with
the center passing through NW MO this afternoon, bringing the threat
of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and strong non-thunderstorm
winds to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Showers and storms associated with low to mid level warm air
advection have already pushed into western MO. This activity will
continue to spread eastward this morning as WAA and convergence
increase along the northward moving warm front. The elevated warm
moist advection ahead of the warm fropa will support MUCAPE up to
1000j/kg across southern MO and IL by late morning. This, coupled
with deep layer bulk shear near 60kts, opens the possibility for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning. With meager
instability and elevated storms, the primary threat will be for
damaging winds, though some small hail cannot be ruled out.
The warm sector will finally push into the region sometime around
18z. Shortly after the warm fropa, a robust dry slot will slide into
the area from the southwest, creating a narrow widow in which
surface based storms will possible, especially in our extreme SE.
The short residence time within the warm sector and mostly cloudy
skies will limit MLCAPE to at most 500 J/kg in our far SE. However,
even with this limited instability, 0-1km shear in excess of 30kts
and 0-3 shear pushing 50kts does allow for the possibility of a few
tornadoes this afternoon.
As the dry slot sweeps through the region, it will end the
thunderstorms threat. However, the steep lapse rates within the dry
slot will allow for strong gradient winds to mix down to the
surface, setting the stage for a substantial wind event on the back
side of this storm. Accordingly, a wind advisory remains in effect
for this afternoon and evening. Winds will quickly taper off after
midnight as the low finally pushes northeast out of the area.
BSH
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
Main focus through the forecast period will be precip chances for
Tues and Wed. Should also see a general warming trend through the
period.
With the surface low over the Great Lakes region continuing east, a
large surface ridge will build into the region Sun. Given the
cyclonic flow across at least the northeast half of the CWA, expect
clouds to linger through the morning hours. However, these clouds
should move east out of the area, and with strong insolation and
westerly winds during the afternoon, temps should warm into the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Going forecast may still be too cool, but some
question regarding how quickly clouds will move out of the area
remains. With similar setup for Mon, have kept temps similar as
well, although weak CAA will help offset the strong heating.
Upper pattern over the region becomes quite amplified Mon night with
strong WAA possibly bringing precip into western portions of the CWA
Tues morning. However, the GFS remains a fast outlier with the
ECMWF/GEM slower, and the FV3 only slightly slower. If precip can
move in as quickly as the GFS suggests, there is a possibility that
precip will begin as snow given wet bulb temps remaining below 0C.
However, with the strong WAA, this should be brief before changing
over to rain. Model solns do agree that surface temperatures will be
above freezing at the onset of rain. Rain should continue off and on
through Wed as the low deepens and pulls NE into the Great Lakes
region.
Expect temps to climb into the 60s on Wed and Thurs. With a surface
ridge building into the area for Thurs night and Fri, have low PoPs
for snow across northern portions of the CWA as the upper trof
swings through the region.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019
Widespread area of showers and thunderstorms is in the process of
exiting the terminals as of 1730 UTC. IFR ceilings will remain
however over the next couple of hours along with the chance of
scattered showers. The dry slot will move into the region this
afternoon with a rapid improvement to VFR ceilings. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible at KCOU and KUIN late this afternoon
but the metro terminals should be too far southeast. The story
will then turn to the strengthening southwest winds. Sustained
winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph are likely from very
late this afternoon through about midnight before slackening off.
Another period of MVFR ceilings is likely to affect the terminals
this evening through Sunday morning before lifting back to VFR.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Area of showers and thunderstorms has just exited the terminal,
with scattered showers possible over the next couple of hours. IFR
ceilings will give way rapidly to VFR conditions this afternoon,
along with a wind shift to the southwest. Southwest winds of 20-30
mph with gusts of 40-50 mph are likely beginning very late this
afternoon until about midnight before slackening off. Another
period of MVFR ceilings is likely from late this morning through
about mid morning on Sunday. VFR conditions with westerly winds
around 10-15mph are likely through the remainder of the valid TAF
period.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City
MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
IL-Madison IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
WFO LSXHazardous weather outlook, Mar 9, 3:46 AM CST, 9 hours 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 346 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a chance for thunderstorms across the area. A few storms may be severe through this afternoon mainly for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Strong southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected this afternoon and evening for much of the area. Please see the Wind Advisory that has been issued for additional info. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through this afternoon. Tilly
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 9, 12:53 PM CST, 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1253 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1248 PM HAIL 5 E COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.23W
03/09/2019 E0.25 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
MFLocal storm report, Mar 9, 12:58 PM CST, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1258 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1257 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW MURPHY 38.51N 90.50W
03/09/2019 M1.36 INCH ST. LOUIS MO PUBLIC
&&
MFLocal storm report, Mar 9, 1:00 PM CST, 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1217 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW FENTON 38.53N 90.47W
03/09/2019 M1.18 INCH ST. LOUIS MO PUBLIC
&&
TESSpecial weather statement, Mar 9, 1:33 PM CST, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
133 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019
MOZ048>050-092000-
Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
133 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COLE...SOUTH CENTRAL
CALLAWAY AND CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CST...
At 133 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brazito, moving east at 40 mph.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Jefferson City, Linn, Wardsville, Taos, Westphalia, St. Thomas, Rich
Fountain, Brazito, Hickory Hill, Wainwright, Schubert, Osage City,
Osage Bend, Frankenstein, Tebbetts, Loose Creek and Bonnots Mill.
This also includes Clarks Hill/Norton Historic Site.
LAT...LON 3867 9189 3840 9178 3832 9219 3834 9220
3834 9222 3832 9224 3832 9226 3834 9229
3834 9234 3847 9239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 252DEG 34KT 3841 9225
BrittThe office that day
Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 1:33 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LSX | Cole, Osage | 27 min |
| Mar 9, 1:42 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LSX | Lewis | 40 hr |
| Mar 9, 1:42 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LSX | Lewis | 3 days |
| Mar 9, 1:42 PM CST | River Flood Warning | LSX | Marion | 15 hr |
| Mar 9, 2:03 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LSX | Gasconade, Osage | 27 min |
| Mar 9, 2:55 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren | 50 min |
| Mar 9, 3:37 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Saint Charles, Saint Louis | 38 min |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.