River Flood Warning 239, NWS St. Louis, MO

309 
WGUS83 KLSX 011241
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
641 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Black River near Annapolis

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC179-011311-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0237.000000T0000Z-191202T1541Z/
/ANNM7.1.ER.191130T1647Z.191201T0045Z.191201T1022Z.NO/
641 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Black River near Annapolis.
* At  6:15 AM Sunday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  4:22 AM Sunday.
* The river will continue falling to 4.5 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/02  12/03  12/04  12/05  12/06

Black River
  Annapolis        8.0    7.72       4.5    4.3    4.1    3.9       


&&


LAT...LON 3743 9087 3745 9078 3724 9074 3724 9079




$$

019 
WGUS83 KLSX 011527
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
927 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Moreau River near Jefferson City

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-022110-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0239.000000T0000Z-191202T2110Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.191201T0551Z.191201T1115Z.191201T1510Z.NO/
927 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Moreau River near Jefferson City
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late this morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/02  12/03  12/04  12/05  12/06

Moreau River
  Jefferson City  17.0   17.33       5.8    3.0    2.5    2.4    2.4


&&


LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3849 9211 3848 9231
      3853 9231                       



$$

427 
WGUS83 KLSX 011713
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1113 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Moreau River near Jefferson City

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-011743-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0239.000000T0000Z-191202T2110Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.191201T0551Z.191201T1115Z.191201T1510Z.NO/
1113 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Moreau River near Jefferson City.
* At 10:30 AM Sunday the stage was 16.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  9:10 AM Sunday.
* The river will continue falling to 5.8 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/02  12/03  12/04  12/05  12/06

Moreau River
  Jefferson City  17.0   16.13       5.8    3.0    2.5    2.4    2.4


&&


LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3849 9211 3848 9231
      3853 9231                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
916 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

A lot going on with this forecast package, but main focus will be
wind gusts, coupled with precip types.

The warm front has struggled to move north today. However, with the
arrival of the upper trof, the warm front, dry line and cold front
are expected to push thru the region thru this evening and tonight.
The cold front is still expected to be east of the CWA by 12z
tomorrow.

Behind this cold front, colder air and strong winds are expected.
Models are suggesting the best mixing along and south of the MO
River and into far SW IL. Expect wind gusts up to 40 kts or so at
times and have therefore issued a Wind Advisory for late tonight
thru Sun afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding wind gusts
on Sun, mainly related to how deep the mixing layer will be. The Adv
may need to be extended in area, with more uncertainty regarding a
possible need to expand east.

With the much cold air aloft arriving late tonight and into Sun,
will expect isod to sct showers across much of the CWA through Sun
afternoon. These showers may linger into at least the early evening
hours as well, especially across southern and eastern portions of
the CWA.

The main question then will be precip type. There is a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding this system and the precip type. The first
question is temps for the day. Have trended cooler again for temps
on Sun given the strong CAA and ample cloud cover during the day.
While there is still concern that the current forecast is still too
warm, this forecast is also hovering around the 25th percentile.
Will therefore wait to see what new guidance trends are before
trending cooler. Believe how precip will unfold is areas of snow and
rain showers moving thru the area late tonight and thru the day Sun.
The leading edge of any precip will likely be light rain and change
to snow as the boundary layer temps cool. Guidance continues to
suggest that this system will be a low QPF producer, in turn
producing low snowfall amounts.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

The first week of the last month of the year looks relatively
uneventful at this time.  For Monday, as the large upper low
continues to move east, wind will still gust around 15-20 mph but
that will come to an end by Monday night.  After that ensembles show
a quiet pattern allowing for near to slightly above normal
temperatures through the week.

Next chance of precip will be in the Thurs-Fri timeframe as a
southern stream system moves east across the southern CONUS.
Forecast of low chance POPs reflects right around the
ensemble 50th percentile for POP and QPF, and at this time all
indications are the precip type will remain liquid.  Given the track
of this system could change quite a bit over the next 6 days,
uncertainty is still high.

Sally

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 908 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

The MVFR cloud ceilings in northwest MO south of a deep surface low
over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will advect southeastward
into the taf sites by early Sunday morning as the surface low
moves eastward through IA and into southern WI and northern IL.
There will be scattered rain and snow showers over the area on
Sunday. The southwest surface winds will veer around to a west-
northwest direction by Sunday morning and will become very strong
and gusty due to a tightening surface pressure gradient between
the deep surface low and a surface ridge moving eastward into the
Plains.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: The MVFR cloud ceilings in northwest MO south
of a deep surface low over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will
advect southeastward into STL by Sunday morning as the surface
low moves eastward through IA and into southern WI and northern
IL. There will be scattered rain and snow showers over the area on
Sunday. The southwest surface wind will veer around to a west-
northwest direction by Sunday morning and will become very strong
and gusty due to a tightening surface pressure gradient between
the deep surface low and a surface ridge moving eastward into the
Plains.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     37  39  31  40 /  20  70  40   0
Quincy          34  38  27  38 /  60  70  40   0
Columbia        34  37  27  41 /  50  70  30   0
Jefferson City  35  38  27  42 /  50  60  30   0
Salem           37  40  31  39 /  40  70  50   0
Farmington      34  39  28  41 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Boone MO-Callaway MO-
     Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery
     MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-
     Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
322 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
322 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected late tonight across central,
east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois.

Snow showers are likely late tonight across mainly central and
northeast Missouri and into west central Illinois. Little if any
accumulation is currently expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Snow showers are likely across much of the area during the day
Sunday. Little if any accumulation is currently expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report wintry precipitation type and
amounts to the National Weather Service.

Tilly