Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 229, NWS St. Louis, MO

October 16, 2019Lewis County, Missouri; Adams County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Oct 16, 2019, 10:25 AM CDT for Lewis County, Missouri; Adams County, Illinois. It took effect at Oct 17, 2019, 1:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 34 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 16, 2019, 10:25 AM CDT (15:25 UTC)
In effect from: Oct 17, 2019, 1:00 AM CDT
Expired: Oct 18, 2019, 10:56 AM CDT
In force: 34 hr
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Adams County, IL, Lewis County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Mississippi River at LaGrange (LGRM7).

Action stage: 16 ft
Minor stage: 17 ft
Moderate stage: 23 ft
Major stage: 25 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

570 
WGUS43 KLSX 161525
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1025 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following river in Illinois...Missouri...
 

  Mississippi River at LaGrange

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC001-MOC111-172124-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0229.191017T0600Z-191019T1200Z/
/LGRM7.1.ER.191017T0600Z.191017T0600Z.191018T0600Z.NO/
1025 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Mississippi River at LaGrange
* from late tonight to Saturday morning.
* At 10:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 18.0 feet after midnight tonight.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  LaGrange        18.0   17.92      18.0   17.9   17.9   17.7   17.4


&&


LAT...LON 4008 9153 4008 9140 3999 9140 3999 9152




$$

4 follow-up statements

319 
WGUS83 KLSX 170123
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Missouri...

  Mississippi River at Canton

  Mississippi River at LaGrange
  
  Mississippi River at Quincy

  Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 21

  Mississippi River at Hannibal

  Mississippi River at Saverton

  Mississippi River at Louisiana

  Mississippi River at Clarksville

  Mississippi River at Winfield

  Mississippi River at Grafton

  Mississippi River at Mel Price Lock & Dam
  
  Mississippi River at St. Louis

  Mississippi River at Chester

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC001-MOC111-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0202.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CANM7.1.ER.190928T0500Z.191016T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Canton
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 17.5 feet by Friday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Canton          14.0   17.56      17.5   17.5   17.4   17.3   17.0


&&


LAT...LON 4022 9154 4022 9142 4008 9140 4008 9153




$$

ILC001-MOC111-180122-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0229.191017T0600Z-191019T1800Z/
/LGRM7.1.ER.191017T0600Z.191017T0600Z.191018T1200Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at LaGrange
* from late tonight to Saturday afternoon.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is expected to remain at flood stage until early Friday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  LaGrange        18.0   17.96      18.0   18.0   17.9   17.7   17.4


&&


LAT...LON 4008 9153 4008 9140 3999 9140 3999 9152




$$

ILC001-MOC127-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0205.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/UINI2.1.ER.190929T0045Z.191017T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Quincy
* until further notice.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 20.1 feet after midnight 
  tonight.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Quincy          17.0   20.01      20.1   20.0   20.0   19.9   19.6


&&


LAT...LON 3999 9152 3999 9140 3991 9140 3991 9152




$$

ILC001-MOC127-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0212.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/QLDI2.1.ER.190930T1724Z.191016T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 21
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue remain at a stage of 19.1 feet until Friday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Lock & Dam 21   17.0   19.12      19.1   19.1   19.0   18.9   18.6


&&


LAT...LON 3991 9152 3991 9140 3983 9135 3983 9148




$$

ILC149-MOC127-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0199.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.190926T0622Z.191017T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Hannibal
* until further notice.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 20.7 feet through early
  Thursday morning, then begin to fall.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Hannibal        16.0   20.67      20.7   20.6   20.4   20.3   20.0


&&


LAT...LON 3983 9148 3983 9135 3974 9121 3967 9135




$$

ILC149-MOC173-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0206.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.190929T0231Z.191017T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Saverton
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast remain near 19.3 feet through Saturday 
  evening, then begin to fall.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Saverton        16.0   19.26      19.3   19.3   19.2   19.1   18.8


&&


LAT...LON 3967 9135 3974 9121 3970 9114 3952 9097
      3945 9111                       



$$

ILC149-MOC163-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0200.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUSM7.1.ER.190928T0255Z.191017T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Louisiana
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 19.0 feet after midnight 
  tonight, and remain near 19.0 feet until Saturday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Louisiana       15.0   18.95      19.0   19.0   19.0   18.8   18.6


&&


LAT...LON 3945 9111 3952 9097 3945 9089 3939 9097




$$

ILC013-MOC163-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0201.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLKM7.1.ER.190928T1230Z.191017T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Clarksville
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 29.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 29.3 feet by early Thursday 
  afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Clarksville     25.0   29.16      29.2   29.3   29.3   29.2   29.0


&&


LAT...LON 3939 9097 3945 9089 3938 9077 3923 9071
      3922 9081                       



$$

ILC013-MOC113-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0207.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CAGM7.1.ER.190930T0931Z.191018T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Winfield
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 29.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 29.6 feet by Thursday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Winfield        26.0   29.46      29.5   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.4


&&


LAT...LON 3922 9081 3923 9071 3888 9057 3881 9057
      3887 9074                       



$$

ILC083-MOC183-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0213.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GRFI2.1.ER.190929T2050Z.191013T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Grafton
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 22.2 feet after
  midnight tonight. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Grafton         18.0   22.15      22.2   22.2   22.1   22.0   21.9


&&


LAT...LON 3881 9057 3888 9057 3899 9046 3895 9028
      3882 9048                       



$$

ILC119-MOC183-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0214.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ALNI2.1.ER.191001T1945Z.191012T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Mel Price Lock & Dam
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 23.6 feet by Friday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Mel Price LD    21.0   23.67      23.6   23.6   23.5   23.5   23.3


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3895 9028 3883 9003 3881 9017
      3886 9017                       



$$

ILC163-MOC189-510-180122-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-191019T1800Z/
/EADM7.1.ER.191005T0926Z.191013T0530Z.191018T1200Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at St. Louis
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 30.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  St. Louis       30.0   30.22      30.1   30.0   29.8   29.8   29.4


&&


LAT...LON 3881 9017 3883 9004 3826 9030 3826 9043
      3873 9024                       



$$

ILC077-157-MOC157-186-180122-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0215.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CHSI2.1.ER.191002T1136Z.191013T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
823 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Chester
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 31.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 31.3 feet 
  by Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Mississippi River 
  Chester         27.0   31.80      31.7   31.3   31.0   30.9   30.7


&&


LAT...LON 3826 9043 3826 9030 3769 8935 3769 8959
      3787 9003                       



$$

935 
WGUS83 KLSX 171558
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...The flood warning continues along the Mississippi River...

 
	    at LaGrange

	    at St. Louis

	    at Canton

	    at Quincy

	    at Lock & Dam 21

	    at Hannibal

	    at Saverton

	    at Louisiana

	    at Clarksville

	    at Winfield

	    at Grafton

	    at Mel Price LD

	    at Chester

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC001-MOC111-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0202.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CANM7.1.ER.190928T0500Z.191017T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Canton
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 AM Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 17.4 feet by tomorrow
  morning.
* Impact:  At 17.3 feet...State Highway B, or Business U.S. Highway 
  61, is closed from Missouri Highway 16 in Canton to north of Canton
  at the levee flood gate near this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Canton          14.0   17.45      17.4   17.3   17.1   16.9   16.6


&&


LAT...LON 4022 9154 4022 9142 4008 9140 4008 9153




$$

ILC001-MOC111-182158-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0229.000000T0000Z-191020T0000Z/
/LGRM7.1.ER.191017T0715Z.191017T0715Z.191018T1800Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at LaGrange
* until Saturday evening.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is expected to rise to near flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact:  At 17.5 feet...Front Street, providing access to elevated 
  riverfront homes in south La Grange near the casino, begins 
  flooding near this height.  Also, the alley behind several homes 
  and businesses along Main Street (Hwy B) begins flooding at this 
  height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  LaGrange        18.0   17.94      18.0   17.9   17.7   17.5   17.2


&&


LAT...LON 4008 9153 4008 9140 3999 9140 3999 9152




$$

ILC001-MOC127-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0205.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/UINI2.1.ER.190929T0045Z.191017T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Quincy
* until further notice.
* At 10:15 AM Thursday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 20.0 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...The Clat Adams Bicentennial Park, just north
  of the Memorial Bridge, begins flooding.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Quincy          17.0   20.01      20.0   19.9   19.8   19.5   19.2


&&


LAT...LON 3999 9152 3999 9140 3991 9140 3991 9152




$$

ILC001-MOC127-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0212.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/QLDI2.1.ER.190930T1724Z.191017T1300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 21
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 19.0 feet by tomorrow
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Lock & Dam 21   17.0   19.15      19.0   18.9   18.8   18.6   18.3


&&


LAT...LON 3991 9152 3991 9140 3983 9135 3983 9148




$$

ILC149-MOC127-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0199.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.190926T0622Z.191017T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Hannibal
* until further notice.
* At 10:15 AM Thursday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 20.6 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The Burlington Northern/Sante Fe railroad 
  tracks running North and South and the railroad yards begin to 
  flood.  At this height, water reaches the base of the two flood 
  gates at Hill Street and Center Steet, so these gates should 
  already be installed and locked down.  Also at this level, 
  preparations are made to install the remaining 3 flood gates on 
  Broadway Avenue and Main Street if the forecast reaches 21.5 feet.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Hannibal        16.0   20.72      20.6   20.5   20.3   20.0   19.7


&&


LAT...LON 3983 9148 3983 9135 3974 9121 3967 9135




$$

ILC149-MOC173-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0206.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.190929T0231Z.191017T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Saverton
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 19.2 feet by tomorrow
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Saverton        16.0   19.31      19.2   19.1   18.9   18.8   18.5


&&


LAT...LON 3967 9135 3974 9121 3970 9114 3952 9097
      3945 9111                       



$$

ILC149-MOC163-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0200.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUSM7.1.ER.190928T0255Z.191017T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Louisiana
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 19.0 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...The parking area at the boat house floods.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Louisiana       15.0   19.01      19.0   18.9   18.8   18.6   18.4


&&


LAT...LON 3945 9111 3952 9097 3945 9089 3939 9097




$$

ILC013-MOC163-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0201.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLKM7.1.ER.190928T1230Z.191017T1530Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Clarksville
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 29.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 29.2 feet by tomorrow
  morning.
* Impact:  At 29.0 feet...Water enters the parking lot entrance at the
  Clarksville Riverfront Park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Clarksville     25.0   29.22      29.2   29.2   29.0   28.9   28.7


&&


LAT...LON 3939 9097 3945 9089 3938 9077 3923 9071
      3922 9081                       



$$

ILC013-MOC113-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0207.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CAGM7.1.ER.190930T0931Z.191018T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Winfield
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 29.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 29.6 feet by after midnight 
  tonight.
* Impact:  At 29.3 feet...The following roads in northern St. Charles 
  County close near this level:  Peruque Creek Road near Highway 79, 
  Dalbow Road near Highway 79, and Firma Road.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Winfield        26.0   29.48      29.6   29.6   29.5   29.3   29.2


&&


LAT...LON 3922 9081 3923 9071 3888 9057 3881 9057
      3887 9074                       



$$

ILC083-MOC183-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0213.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GRFI2.1.ER.190929T2050Z.191013T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Grafton
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 22.2 feet by this 
  afternoon. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 21.9 feet...In northern St. Charles County, Missouri 
  Route B from Lehmond Island Road to Kampville Drive, Wilson Road at
  Washeon Road, and Grafton Ferry Road and Sherwood Harbor Road north
  of Smartt Field are closed.  West of Portage des Sioux, Sioux Drive
  is also closed at this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Grafton         18.0   22.14      22.2   22.1   22.0   21.8   21.6


&&


LAT...LON 3881 9057 3888 9057 3899 9046 3895 9028
      3882 9048                       



$$

ILC119-MOC183-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0214.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ALNI2.1.ER.191001T1945Z.191012T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Mel Price Lock and Dam
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise to near 23.6 feet by this afternoon. 
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Dresser Island Drive floods within a foot of
  this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Mel Price LD    21.0   23.56      23.5   23.5   23.5   23.3   22.9


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3895 9028 3883 9003 3881 9017
      3886 9017                       



$$

ILC163-MOC189-510-182158-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-191020T1200Z/
/EADM7.1.ER.191005T0926Z.191013T0530Z.191019T0600Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at St. Louis
* until Sunday morning.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 30.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near  feet by this 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 30.0 feet...Floodwall at Lacledes Landing is closed.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  St. Louis       30.0   30.01      30.0   29.9   29.8   29.4   28.9


&&


LAT...LON 3881 9017 3883 9004 3826 9030 3826 9043
      3873 9024                       



$$

ILC077-157-MOC157-186-182158-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0215.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CHSI2.1.ER.191002T1136Z.191013T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Chester
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 31.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 31.3 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 31.5 feet...In Perry County, Highway E is closed between
  County Road 322 and Levee Road (County Road 354) at Bois Brule 
  Creek.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Chester         27.0   31.62      31.3   31.1   31.0   30.8   30.5


&&


LAT...LON 3826 9043 3826 9030 3769 8935 3769 8959
      3787 9003                       



$$

Maples

528 
WGUS83 KLSX 180125
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...Missouri...

 
  Mississippi River at LaGrange

  Mississippi River at St. Louis

  Mississippi River at Canton

  Mississippi River at Quincy

  Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 21

  Mississippi River at Hannibal

  Mississippi River at Saverton

  Mississippi River at Louisiana

  Mississippi River at Clarksville

  Mississippi River at Winfield

  Mississippi River at Grafton

  Mississippi River at Mel Price LD

  Mississippi River at Chester

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC001-MOC111-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0202.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CANM7.1.ER.190928T0500Z.191017T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Canton
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will remain near 17.4 feet through Saturday
  morning.
* Impact:  At 17.3 feet...State Highway B, or Business U.S. Highway 
  61, is closed from Missouri Highway 16 in Canton to north of Canton
  at the levee flood gate near this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Canton          14.0   17.43      17.4   17.4   17.2   16.9   16.7


&&


LAT...LON 4022 9154 4022 9142 4008 9140 4008 9153




$$

ILC001-MOC111-190126-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0229.000000T0000Z-191020T1800Z/
/LGRM7.1.ER.191017T0715Z.191017T0715Z.191019T1200Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at LaGrange
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after midnight.
* Impact:  At 17.5 feet...Front Street, providing access to elevated 
  riverfront homes in south La Grange near the casino, begins 
  flooding near this height.  Also, the alley behind several homes 
  and businesses along Main Street (Hwy B) begins flooding at this 
  height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  LaGrange        18.0   17.93      18.0   18.0   17.8   17.5   17.3


&&


LAT...LON 4008 9153 4008 9140 3999 9140 3999 9152




$$

ILC001-MOC127-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0205.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/UINI2.1.ER.190929T0045Z.191017T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Quincy
* until further notice.
* At  7:15 PM Thursday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 20.0 feet through Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...The Clat Adams Bicentennial Park, just north
  of the Memorial Bridge, begins flooding.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Quincy          17.0   20.02      20.0   20.0   19.8   19.6   19.3


&&


LAT...LON 3999 9152 3999 9140 3991 9140 3991 9152




$$

ILC001-MOC127-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0212.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/QLDI2.1.ER.190930T1724Z.191017T1300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 21
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue remain near 19.1 feet through Saturday
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Lock & Dam 21   17.0   19.13      19.1   19.1   18.9   18.7   18.4


&&


LAT...LON 3991 9152 3991 9140 3983 9135 3983 9148




$$

ILC149-MOC127-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0199.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.190926T0622Z.191017T2245Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Hannibal
* until further notice.
* At  7:15 PM Thursday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 20.7 feet after
  midnight. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The Burlington Northern/Sante Fe railroad 
  tracks running North and South and the railroad yards begin to 
  flood.  At this height, water reaches the base of the two flood 
  gates at Hill Street and Center Steet, so these gates should 
  already be installed and locked down.  Also at this level, 
  preparations are made to install the remaining 3 flood gates on 
  Broadway Avenue and Main Street if the forecast reaches 21.5 feet.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Hannibal        16.0   20.69      20.7   20.6   20.4   20.1   19.7


&&


LAT...LON 3983 9148 3983 9135 3974 9121 3967 9135




$$

ILC149-MOC173-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0206.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.190929T0231Z.191017T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Saverton
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 19.1 feet by Saturday
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Saverton        16.0   19.31      19.2   19.1   18.9   18.8   18.5


&&


LAT...LON 3967 9135 3974 9121 3970 9114 3952 9097
      3945 9111                       



$$

ILC149-MOC163-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0200.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUSM7.1.ER.190928T0255Z.191017T2345Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Louisiana
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 18.9 feet 
  by Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Louisiana       15.0   19.03      19.0   18.9   18.8   18.6   18.4


&&


LAT...LON 3945 9111 3952 9097 3945 9089 3939 9097




$$

ILC013-MOC163-190126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0201.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLKM7.1.ER.190928T1230Z.191018T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Clarksville
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 29.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise to near 29.3 feet after midnight. 
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 29.0 feet...Water enters the parking lot entrance at the
  Clarksville Riverfront Park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Clarksville     25.0   29.25      29.3   29.2   29.1   28.9   28.7


&&


LAT...LON 3939 9097 3945 9089 3938 9077 3923 9071
      3922 9081                       



$$

ILC013-MOC113-190125-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0207.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CAGM7.1.ER.190930T0931Z.191018T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Winfield
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 29.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 29.6 feet after midnight. 
* Impact:  At 29.3 feet...The following roads in northern St. Charles 
  County close near this level:  Peruque Creek Road near Highway 79, 
  Dalbow Road near Highway 79, and Firma Road.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Winfield        26.0   29.52      29.6   29.6   29.5   29.3   29.1


&&


LAT...LON 3922 9081 3923 9071 3888 9057 3881 9057
      3887 9074                       



$$

ILC083-MOC183-190125-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0213.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GRFI2.1.ER.190929T2050Z.191013T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Grafton
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage of 22.0 feet 
  by Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Grafton         18.0   22.10      22.1   22.0   21.9   21.7   21.4


&&


LAT...LON 3881 9057 3888 9057 3899 9046 3895 9028
      3882 9048                       



$$

ILC119-MOC183-190125-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0214.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ALNI2.1.ER.191001T1945Z.191012T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Mel Price LD
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 23.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will remain near 23.5 feet through Saturday
  morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Dresser Island Drive floods within a foot of
  this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Mel Price LD    21.0   23.52      23.5   23.5   23.5   23.3   22.9


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3895 9028 3883 9003 3881 9017
      3886 9017                       



$$

ILC163-MOC189-510-190125-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-191021T0600Z/
/EADM7.1.ER.191005T0926Z.191013T0530Z.191020T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at St. Louis
* until late Sunday night.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 29.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after midnight.
* Impact:  At 30.0 feet...Floodwall at Lacledes Landing is closed.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  St. Louis       30.0   29.92      30.0   30.0   29.8   29.4   28.9


&&


LAT...LON 3881 9017 3883 9004 3826 9030 3826 9043
      3873 9024                       



$$

ILC077-157-MOC157-186-190125-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0215.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CHSI2.1.ER.191002T1136Z.191013T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Chester
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 31.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 31.4 feet after
  midnight. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 28.0 feet...Unleveed islands near Chester and the prison
  farm floods.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Mississippi River 
  Chester         27.0   31.23      31.3   31.1   31.0   30.9   30.5


&&


LAT...LON 3826 9043 3826 9030 3769 8935 3769 8959
      3787 9003                       



$$

995 
WGUS83 KLSX 181556
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1056 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled along the Mississippi River...

 
	      at LaGrange
	      
	      
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC001-MOC111-181626-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0229.000000T0000Z-191020T1800Z/
/LGRM7.1.ER.191017T0715Z.191017T0715Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1056 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Mississippi River at LaGrange.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river crested below flood stage at 18.0 feet. The river will 
  fall to 17.8 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

Mississippi River 
  LaGrange        18.0   17.91      17.8   17.7   17.4   17.1   16.8


&&


LAT...LON 4008 9153 4008 9140 3999 9140 3999 9152




$$

Maples

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 16, 6:40 AM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 6:40 AM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
640 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Surface ridge extending from eastern SD south through central KS
will shift east-southeastward through our area tonight and
Thursday morning. Although the sky has cleared out across the
forecast area overnight behind the cold front, a large area of
low level cloudiness across IA, eastern Nebraska, and northwest MO
will advect southeastward into much of our area later this
morning and this afternoon, particularly for northeast MO and
west central IL. Continued low level cold air advection coupled
with only partial sunshine due to the cloud cover will result in
much colder high temperatures today. Highs today will be 10 to 15
degrees below normal for mid October. Most of this cloud cover
will shift east-northeast of the forecast area by late tonight
and Thursday morning. Cold lows in the 30s can be expected tonight
along with some frost due to good radiational cooling with the
surface ridge axis over the forecast area leading to light surface
winds coupled with low surface dew points in the 30s. Warmer high
temperatures can be expected on Thursday due to weak low level
warm air advection as the wind becomes southeasterly as the
surface ridge shifts east of the area. An upper level ridge will
also be shifting eastward into MO by Thursday afternoon. There
will be plenty of solar insolation as well with little cloud
cover expected. Although high temperatures will be warmer on
Thursday they will still be slightly below normal.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The warming trend will continue for the end of the work week with
continued southerly surface winds resulting in highs on Friday at
or slightly above normal. The chance of rain will return across
northeast and central MO by late Friday night as low-mid level
warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave
and weakening cold front. A southwesterly low level jet will also
bring increasing low level moisture into the area. This
precipitation will likely spread eastward into the rest of the
forecast area on Saturday, then shift east of the region by
Saturday evening. The ECMWF model has more QPF with this
relatively weak system compared to the operational GFS which does
not have much QPF left by Saturday afternoon. Will lean toward
the GFS solution with lower pops and less QPF Saturday afternoon.
It also looks like instability may be insufficient for any
thunderstorms late Friday night and Saturday. A tightening surface
pressure gradient will lead to strengthening southerly surface
winds and warmer highs on Sunday, likely into the 70s over much
of our area. A more significant precipitation event is expected
Sunday night and Monday as a deepening upper level low and
associated surface low move eastward across the northern Plains
and drags a trailing cold front through our forecast area late
Sunday night and Monday. The GFS model is a little faster with the
progression of the cold front versus the ECMWF model. There
should be a band of showers and thunderstorms in the warm conveyor
belt structure ahead of the cold front which will translate
eastward across our area Sunday night and Monday. Colder
temperatures can be expected Monday night and Tuesday after
passage of the cold front with a deep upper level trough centered
over the Great Lakes region by Tuesday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Stratus consisting of MVFR to low-end VFR flight conditions
blanketed the area from northern MO northward into the upper MS
Valley. The stratus has been moving steadily southward overnight
and will continue to do so this morning, however at some point
around 15-16z the southern extent will likely halt somewhere from
just south of KCOU to near or just south of St. Louis. At that
point and into the afternoon, mixing will result in the clouds
becoming increasingly cumuliform with cloud bases rising. The
coverage should continue to diminish late afternoon into early
evening with VFR flight conditions continuing tonight. Gusty
northwest winds are expected this morning with winds diminishing
gradually during the afternoon hours.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 16, 4:42 AM CDT, 5 hours 43 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
442 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-170945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
442 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

GKS

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2019 River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2019 Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.