River Flood Warning 203, NWS St. Louis, MO

860 
WGUS83 KLSX 290111
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
811 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-300111-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.190929T1124Z-190930T2200Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.190929T1124Z.190929T1200Z.190929T1600Z.NO/
811 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* from Sunday morning to Monday afternoon.
* At 7:30 PM Saturday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise back to near flood stage 
  early Sunday morning, then fall below flood stage
  Sunday evening.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/29  09/30  10/01  10/02  10/03

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   10.73      11.0   10.0    8.4    6.1    4.8


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

298 
WGUS83 KLSX 291103
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
603 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  North Fabius River 
  
      near Ewing
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-301102-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.190929T1101Z-190930T1800Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.190929T0618Z.190929T0800Z.190929T1200Z.NO/
603 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The North Fabius River near Ewing
* Until late this morning.
* At 5:30 AM Sunday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is recently crested near 11.7 feet overnight last night
  and is forecast to fall back below flood stage this morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/30  10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   11.19      11.0    9.9    8.3    6.2    4.8


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

391 
WGUS83 KLSX 291639
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-302239-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.000000T0000Z-191002T2100Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.190929T0618Z.190930T1800Z.191001T1500Z.NO/
1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this 
  morning and to crest near 13.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. 
  The river is forecast to fall below flood stage by late Tuesday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/30  10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   10.90      12.7   11.4    8.1    6.6    5.6


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

Maples

001 
WGUS43 KLSX 300049
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
749 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Missouri...

  North Fabius River near Ewing

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-010049-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.000000T0000Z-191003T0846Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190929T0618Z.191001T0600Z.191002T0246Z.NO/
749 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The North Fabius River near Ewing
* At  7:30 PM Sunday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.1 feet by early Tuesday 
  morning. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  before midnight.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/30  10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   13.25      14.1   14.3    9.4    7.2    6.1


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

308 
WGUS83 KLSX 301511
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1011 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-012110-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.000000T0000Z-191006T1800Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190929T0618Z.191001T0000Z.191005T1200Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Monday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.3 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.53      14.6   10.3    8.6    9.6   11.0


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-012110-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0216.000000T0000Z-191003T0000Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190929T1302Z.191001T0000Z.191001T1800Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Monday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 13.1 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   12.83      12.7    8.9    7.1   10.4   10.0


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

Maples

741 
WGUS83 KLSX 010243
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
943 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-020842-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.000000T0000Z-191003T1348Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190929T0618Z.191001T0600Z.191002T0748Z.NO/
943 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Thursday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Monday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 15.5 feet by after midnight 
  tonight, then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   15.43      10.3    8.4    8.3    8.7    7.7


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-020842-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0216.000000T0000Z-191003T1124Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190929T1302Z.191001T1200Z.191002T0524Z.NO/
943 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Thursday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Monday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 13.4 feet by tomorrow morning, 
  then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/01  10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   13.13      10.8    7.0    7.2    8.2    6.6


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

580 
WGUS83 KLSX 011553
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1053 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-022152-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0203.000000T0000Z-191003T1446Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190929T0618Z.191001T1015Z.191002T0846Z.NO/
1053 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Thursday morning.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05  10/06

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.77      10.3    8.2    7.7    8.0    7.2


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-022152-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0216.000000T0000Z-191003T2024Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190929T1302Z.191001T1800Z.191002T1424Z.NO/
1053 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 14.1 feet by this afternoon, 
  then fall below flood stage tomorrow late morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05  10/06

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   14.04      12.4    8.6    7.1    7.6    6.5


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

604 
WGUS83 KLSX 020055
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
755 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the North Fabius River 
near Ewing...

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-020125-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0203.000000T0000Z-191003T1446Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190929T0618Z.191001T1015Z.191001T2204Z.NO/
755 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  5:04 PM Tuesday.
* The river will continue falling to 7.2 feet by Thursday morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/02  10/03  10/04  10/05  10/06

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   10.11       8.2    7.2    7.6    8.1    7.0


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
704 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A cold front associated with a surface low currently over the
northern Great Lakes has pushed into northern MO and western IL,
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms in those areas.
With the low moving off to the NE, the front has begun to stall
thanks to southerly winds born of a tight pressure gradient
between a surface high over the SE CONUS and a secondary low over
the southern Plains.

The front will remain largely stationary through much of today
and will remain the focus of the short term forecast. Thunderstorm
activity will likely persist in the vicinity of the front for a
few more hours, with coverage diminishing as the low level jet
weakens. We'll then see a lull in storm activity this morning
until a shortwave currently over the southern Rockies swings
through the region in the early afternoon. This wave, coupled with
surface convergence along the stalled front and/or any lingering
outflows, should be enough to force some storms in northern MO and
west central IL this afternoon and into the evening. Thinking
afternoon storm coverage will be little more than isolated thanks
to a modest cap atop the front. The cap is forecast to be weaker
toward mid-MO, and with MLCAPE forecast to exceed 1000 J/kg and
deep layer shear topping out between 25 and 30 kts, there is some
chance for a few strong to possibly severe storms this afternoon.

Meanwhile, more widespread convection is expected to develop in
eastern KS, where the cap is expected to be considerably weaker.
CAMs show these storms growing upscale into an MCS as they push to
the NE, eventually reaching central MO by the late evening.
Instability is expected to diminish quite a bit by the time these
storms arrive in our CWA, but continued modest shear should help
keep storms somewhat organized as they move into the CWA,
sustaining a limited severe threat.

Where exactly the front hangs up remains a bit of a question and
introduces a bit of certainty to the forecast. Current thinking is
that it will remain across northern MO and central IL, keeping the
bulk of the storm chances north of I-70. This will also set up a
sharp temperature gradient in that area, with temps limited to
the 70s along and north of the front and pushing into the upper
80s south of the front. There is a chance the front sets up a bit
further south, which would not only focus the storms further
south, but also reduce temperatures in those areas.

BSH

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The mid-Mississippi Valley will remain beneath the dual influence of
the strong upper ridge over the SE CONUS and a building trough over
the northern US Rockies through mid-week. This will lock our region
into SSW flow, which will first shunt the stalled front north of
the area on Sunday, and then reinforce the very warm moist
airmass through mid week. The best storm chances will exit the
area on Sunday afternoon along with the front, with a strong cap
helping keep us dry on Monday and Tuesday. The persistent SSW
flow will help push temperatures well above normal across the
area through Tuesday.

The upper trough will eject out of the northwest on Tuesday night
helping break the grip of the upper ridge. This should drive
another front into the region and bring storm chances back into
the area sometime on Wednesday or Thursday. Guidance is now in
better consensus showing the front pushing clear south of the
area, increasing confidence that we'll see more fall like
temperatures by the end of the week.

BSH

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The terminals will likely stay dry into the afternoon hours before
isolated-scattered storms develop to the southwest. KCOU and KUIN
have the best chance of storms late this afternoon into the early
overnight hours. Any storms that affect a terminal will be able to
produce heavy donwnpours with reduced visibility and the potential
for gusty winds. The other concern is for low stratus up at KUIN
just north of a stalled frontal boundary. Quincy is right on the
gradient but believe MVFR ceilings will be predominant through the
period, with IFR ceilings possible this morning and again late
tonight. Winds will be out of the northeast through tonight north
of the aforementioned front and light and variable for KCOU and
the metro terminals.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR conditions are favored through the period as better chances
for thunderstorms should remain just northwest of the terminal.
Winds are forecast to be out of the south predominantly this
morning before becoming light/variable in close proximity to a
stalled frontal boundary.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
337 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-290845-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
337 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Ongoing storms will end this morning before isolated thunderstorms
develop this afternoon across much of the region. Storms are
expected to become more widespread this evening toward central
Missouri, where there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night through
Thursday across much of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening
toward central Missouri.

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE PALMYRA           39.81N 91.46W
09/27/2019                   MARION             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN OVER HIGHWAY 168 NORTH OF
            HANNIBAL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
941 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             LA BELLE                40.12N 91.91W
09/27/2019  E1.00 INCH       LEWIS              MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN LA BELLE.

&&

MRB