River Flood Warning 187, NWS St. Louis, MO

988 
WGUS83 KLSX 210202
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
902 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Missouri River...near Chamois
  
                ...at Gasconade
                
                ...at Hermann
                
                ...at St. Charles

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-220201-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0184.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.190819T1225Z.190821T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until further notice.
* At  7 PM Tuesday the stage was estimated at 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 19.1 feet after
  midnight tonight. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/21  08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   18.40      19.1   18.2   17.2   16.9   17.4


&&


LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
      3864 9198                       



$$

MOC073-139-220201-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0185.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.190818T2007Z.190821T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until further notice.
* At 7 PM Tuesday the stage was estimated at 24.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 24.5 feet after
  midnight tonight. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Southern portions of Old Rock Road and 
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/21  08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   22.20      24.5   23.8   22.7   22.3   22.8


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3866 9156 3868 9164
      3873 9164                       



$$

MOC073-139-220201-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0186.000000T0000Z-190828T0000Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.190820T0518Z.190821T1200Z.190827T0000Z.NO/
902 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* until Tuesday August 27.
* At  8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 22.4 feet by tomorrow morning, 
  then fall below flood stage Monday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/21  08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   21.96      22.4   22.0   20.9   20.4   20.8


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9136 3866 9119 3861 9123 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC183-189-220201-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0187.190821T1500Z-190824T0000Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.190821T1500Z.190822T0000Z.190823T0000Z.NO/
902 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles
* from Wednesday morning to Friday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late tomorrow
  morning and to crest near 25.3 feet by early Thursday morning. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage by Thursday evening.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...The right bank downstream overflows, 
  flooding agricultural bottomland.  Near this stage, Missouri Route 
  H at Island Road will be closed in both directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/21  08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   24.44      24.9   25.3   24.5   23.7   23.6


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3886 9018 3881 9017 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       



$$

940 
WGUS83 KLSX 211449
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Missouri River near Chamois

  Missouri River at Gasconade  
  
  Missouri River at Hermann

  Missouri River at St. Charles

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-221447-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0184.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.190819T1225Z.190826T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until further notice.
* At  7:25 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue to rise to near 21.2 feet by Monday morning. 
  Additional rises are possible.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   18.70      17.8   17.2   18.9   21.2   22.1


&&


LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
      3864 9198                       



$$

MOC073-139-221447-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0185.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.190818T2007Z.190826T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 AM Monday the stage was 22.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.4 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Southern portions of Old Rock Road and 
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   22.20      23.4   22.6   24.0   26.3   27.4


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3866 9156 3868 9164
      3873 9164                       



$$

MOC073-139-221447-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0186.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.190820T0518Z.190826T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 22.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 25.2 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 25.2 feet...The Bait shop just below the bridge floods.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   22.05      21.3   20.6   21.9   24.2   25.2


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9136 3866 9119 3861 9123 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC183-189-221447-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0187.190822T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.190822T0000Z.190826T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles
* from this evening until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue to rise to near 25.8 feet by Monday morning. 
  Additional rises are possible.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...The Katy Trail begins flooding near this 
  height along Hawning Road, about 2 miles north northeast of the 
  Highway 370 bridge.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   24.77      24.9   24.2   24.1   25.7   27.3


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3886 9018 3881 9017 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       



$$

837 
WGUS83 KLSX 220210
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
910 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Missouri River at Jefferson City

  Missouri River near Chamois

  Missouri River at Gasconade

  Missouri River at Hermann

  Missouri River at St. Charles

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC019-027-051-135-230210-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0188.190824T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/JFFM7.1.ER.190824T1800Z.190826T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Jefferson City
* from Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage Saturday afternoon 
  and crest near 24.9 feet Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...The Katy Trail Floods near Rocheport.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Jefferson City  23.0   20.79      20.4   20.6   22.3   24.4   24.7


&&


LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3853 9222 3890 9260
      3899 9255                       



$$

MOC027-151-230210-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0184.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.190819T1225Z.190826T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until further notice.
* At  7:25 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 21.6 feet Monday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   18.70      18.1   17.8   18.6   20.6   21.6


&&


LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
      3864 9198                       



$$

MOC073-139-230210-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0185.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.190818T2007Z.190826T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 AM Monday the stage was 22.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.0 feet Monday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Southern portions of Old Rock Road and 
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   22.20      23.7   23.3   23.9   25.7   26.9


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3866 9156 3868 9164
      3873 9164                       



$$

MOC073-139-230210-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0186.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.190820T0518Z.190826T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 24.7 feet on Monday.
* Impact:  At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins...
  particularly just north of the Highway 19 bridge along the Loutre 
  River.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   21.89      21.6   21.2   21.8   23.6   24.7


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9136 3866 9119 3861 9123 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC183-189-230210-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0187.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.190825T0400Z.190827T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles
* until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage late Saturday evening
  and crest near 27.3 feet Tuesday morning.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...The Katy Trail begins flooding near this 
  height along Hawning Road, about 2 miles north northeast of the 
  Highway 370 bridge.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/22  08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   24.82      24.9   24.8   24.6   25.4   26.8


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3886 9018 3881 9017 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       



$$

574 
WGUS83 KLSX 221452
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
952 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Missouri River at Jefferson City

  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Missouri River near Chamois

  Missouri River at Hermann

  Missouri River at St. Charles

  Missouri River at Gasconade

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC019-027-051-135-221522-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0188.000000T0000Z-190822T1452Z/
/JFFM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Missouri River at Jefferson City.
* At  8:45 AM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river crested below flood stage at 21.3 feet. The river will 
  rise to 20.5 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26  08/27

Missouri River
  Jefferson City  23.0   20.43      20.5   20.8   20.4   19.8   19.3


&&


LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3853 9222 3890 9260
      3899 9255                       



$$

MOC027-151-231451-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0184.000000T0000Z-190828T0600Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.190819T1225Z.190821T1225Z.190826T1800Z.NO/
952 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until late Tuesday night.
* At  7:32 AM Thursday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to fall to below flood stage by Monday early
  afternoon.
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land begins
  to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26  08/27

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   18.00      17.6   17.8   17.7   17.1   16.7


&&


LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
      3864 9198                       



$$

MOC073-139-231451-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0185.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.190818T2007Z.190822T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was estimated at 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to fall to near 23.0 feet by Friday morning.
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26  08/27

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0  E23.60      23.0   23.2   23.1   22.5   22.1


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3866 9156 3868 9164
      3873 9164                       



$$

MOC073-139-231451-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0186.000000T0000Z-190827T0300Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.190820T0518Z.190821T1515Z.190826T0300Z.NO/
952 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* until Monday evening.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Sunday before midnight.
* Impact:  At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins...
  particularly just north of the Highway 19 bridge along the Loutre 
  River.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26  08/27

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   21.57      21.2   21.4   21.3   20.8   20.2


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9136 3866 9119 3861 9123 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC183-189-231451-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0187.000000T0000Z-190823T1800Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.190822T0730Z.190822T0900Z.190822T1800Z.NO/
952 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 24.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river is cresting and is expected to fall below flood stage
  tonight.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...The right bank downstream overflows, 
  flooding agricultural bottomland.  Near this stage, Missouri Route 
  H at Island Road will be closed in both directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26  08/27

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   24.92      24.6   24.2   24.3   24.2   23.7


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3886 9018 3881 9017 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       



$$

451 
WGUS83 KLSX 230132
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
831 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Missouri River at St. Charles
  

This is the final statement for this flood event... 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-189-230201-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0187.000000T0000Z-190823T1800Z/
/SCLM7.1.ER.190822T0730Z.190822T0900Z.190822T1045Z.NO/
831 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Missouri River at St. Charles.
* At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 5:45 AM Thursday.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to near 24.4 feet Saturday 
  morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/23  08/24  08/25  08/26  08/27

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   24.57      24.4   24.4   24.5   24.2   23.7


&&


LAT...LON 3891 9033 3886 9018 3881 9017 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
704 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

The primary focus in the short term is the MCS developing over Iowa
at this time, and where it will move today.  The latest radar loop
from KDMX is already showing the discrete storms that developed
earlier growing upscale into what's starting to look like a solid
line.  SPC mesoanalysis shows 4000-5000 J/Kg MUCAPE across
southern/central Iowa, and more than 4000 J/Kg MUCAPE extending
southeast all the way to the Mississippi River in east central
Missouri.  With that kind of instability and effective bulk shear in
excess of 40kts the storms should have little trouble continuing to
organize.  The forward propagating Corfidi vectors are pointing to
the east-southeast, so expect the echomass to start taking a right
turn toward northeast Missouri and west central Illinois over the
next hour or two as the MCS continues to strengthen.  As it develops
a rear inflow jet a strong cold pool should develop, forcing
continuing southeastward development along the axis of highest
instability.  Incidentally...there's also a minimum of MUCINH along
the axis of MUCAPE.  The RAP does shift the axis of MUCAPE further
to the northeast through 12-14Z nearer to northeast Missouri and
western Illinois...however, models are showing rapid destabilization
of the boundary layer after sunrise, so the MCS should have plenty
of juice to maintain it as it moves south, and it's likely the
strong cold pool will force development to the southwest as well.
The primary threat should be damaging wind in excess of 60 mph, but
some large hail and an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out
either.

This MCS should suppress temperatures today, which otherwise would
likely be at least as warm as yesterday if not warmer.  It should
still warm up quickly ahead of the storms, and temperatures will
likely rebound behind the system late this morning and afternoon.
However I think we'll avoid the mid 90s with most locations topping
out in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight looks relatively quiet with
weak ridging aloft and the low level jet focused over the Plains.
There may be an isolated shower or storm after midnight as
guidance is showing some weak low level moisture convergence. It
looks like this moisture convergence may be due to the approaching
cold front which should move into Missouri on Wednesday, but
forcing looks pretty weak so only slight chance PoPs are warranted
for late tonight.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast so drift into Missouri
on Wednesday. While forecast instability is pretty impressive with
4000+ J/Kg MLCAPE Wednesday afternoon, the shear is 10-20kts over
eastern Missouri and western/central Illinois. Wouldn't be
surprised to see a few severe thunderstorms pulse up in the
afternoon, but organized severe weather like we're likely to see
today doesn't seem likely. Highs Wednesday will probably be a
little warmer than today, especially along and south of I-70, and
dew point pooling ahead of the front will make it pretty humid.
Storms should provide some relief, but heat index values will
probably approach 100-104 along and south of I-70.

Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

There's some disagreement in the models on where the effective front
and convection will be on Wednesday evening.  Both the GFS and NAM
show another short wave aloft moving from the eastern Plains into
Missouri late Wednesday afternoon or evening.  The GFS is faster and
shows a stronger wave than the NAM, and therefore the cold front on
the GFS is further south than the NAM has it.  The differences
between model solutions really aren't that large in synoptic terms,
but could have large impacts on precipitation chances Wednesday
night.  Elevated instability on the GFS is quickly forced south into
far southern Missouri by 06Z while the NAM keeps 1500-2000 J/Kg
MUCAPE along and south of I-70 all night.  Regardless, Wednesday
evening at least looks potentially wet with a continuing chance of
rain after midnight.  The ECMWF tends to support the wetter solution
as well, so high chance to likely PoPs continue to look appropriate.

Guidance has been consistently amplifying the upper level pattern
Thursday into Friday as a deepening low over southeast Canada pushes
the cold front south-southwest through Illinois and Missouri and high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes.  The latest GFS is faster with
this process than the ECMWF, and keeps Thursday and Friday mostly
dry, however the EC has been more consistent and is supported by the
Canadian model so will keep rain chances in for both days.  Rain
chances diminish to just slights during the weekend under the
influence of the high due to lower temperatures and dew points.
Highs from Thursday through the weekend look mild in the upper 70s
to low 80s as compared with the fist half of the week.  The high
over the Great Lakes moves east Sunday night into Monday allowing
return flow back into the mid Mississippi Valley bringing highs back
into the mid and upper 80s and increasing humidity.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

The line of thunderstorms southeast Iowa is expected to build
southeastward through our forecast area today. IFR flight
conditions, wind gusts in excess of 50kts, large hail, and
possibly a few tornadoes will accompany this line of storms.

VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms.

Carney

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     87  74  89  72 /  80  30  50  60
Quincy          87  71  84  66 /  80  40  50  50
Columbia        89  72  88  68 /  70  30  60  60
Jefferson City  91  72  90  68 /  70  30  60  60
Salem           86  69  88  69 /  70  30  50  50
Farmington      87  71  91  68 /  70  10  50  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
438 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-210945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
438 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous severe storms are possible this morning into early
afternoon. The primary threat will be damaging winds in excess of 60
mph. Large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue to be possible Wednesday
through Friday. Some storms could be strong to severe on Wednesday.
Isolated storms are possible Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this morning into early
afternoon.

Carney

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
813 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

ILZ095-MOZ018-019-026-027-201415-
Adams IL-Marion MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Shelby MO-
813 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAMS...KNOX...NORTHWESTERN
MARION...NORTHERN SHELBY AND LEWIS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 812 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dallas City to near Wayland to near Edina.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  La Belle around 840 AM CDT.
  Mendon, Lewistown and Steffenville around 845 AM CDT.
  Ewing around 855 AM CDT.
  Camp Point and Golden around 900 AM CDT.
  Maywood around 905 AM CDT.
  Clayton around 910 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Coatsburg, Meyer,
Hurdland, Baring, Ursa, Paloma, Taylor, Woodville, Monticello and
Fowler.

This includes Interstate 172 between exits 14 and 19.

This also includes Wakonda State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
west central Illinois...and northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4030 9195 4026 9193 4025 9150 4020 9150
      4019 9091 3994 9091 3980 9229 3995 9229
      3996 9234 4030 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1312Z 297DEG 37KT 4061 9111 4032 9161 4018 9225

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CANTON                  40.13N 91.52W
08/20/2019                   LEWIS              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT 6TH ST AND LEWIS CANTON MO,
            18-INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

&&

MRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
936 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

ILZ058-097-098-MOZ036-052-201530-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Pike IL-Pike MO-Lincoln MO-
936 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND NORTHERN
GREENE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...PIKE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI UNTIL 1030 AM
CDT...

At 935 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Chandlerville to near Center. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Pittsfield, Louisiana, White Hall, Roodhouse,
Griggsville, Pleasant Hill, Atlas, Eolia, Clarksville, Frankford,
Pike, Curryville, Spencerburg, Tarrants, Belleview, Independence,
Bedford, Patterson and Montezuma.

This includes Interstate 72 between exits 31 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Illinois...and northeastern and east
central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3983 9057 3971 9065 3956 9058 3952 9058
      3952 9015 3949 9015 3913 9118 3943 9146
      3947 9144 3960 9118 3961 9120 3984 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 312DEG 34KT 4002 9016 3955 9149

BSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
940 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

MOZ018-019-026-027-201530-
Marion MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Shelby MO-
940 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX...NORTHWESTERN MARION...
NORTHERN SHELBY AND LEWIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

At 940 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Colony to near La Plata. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Knox City and Colony around 945 AM CDT.
  La Belle around 1000 AM CDT.
  Lewistown around 1010 AM CDT.
  Clarence around 1020 AM CDT.
  Ewing around 1030 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Hurdland, Baring,
Leonard, Monticello, Newark, Bethel and Novelty.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
west central Illinois...and northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4030 9195 4026 9193 4025 9150 4019 9151
      3995 9169 3972 9230 3995 9229 3996 9234
      4022 9235 4031 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 312DEG 22KT 4021 9200 4001 9241

Tilly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1022 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

ILZ058>060-098>100-MOZ036-052-061-201615-
Calhoun IL-Madison IL-Montgomery IL-Macoupin IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Pike MO-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-
1022 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN...GREENE...NORTHWESTERN
MADISON...MACOUPIN AND JERSEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWESTERN ST.
CHARLES...LINCOLN COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1021 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pawnee to 6 miles southeast of New
Hartford. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
O'Fallon, St. Peters, Wentzville, Godfrey, Lake St. Louis, Dardenne
Prairie, Troy, Jerseyville, Litchfield, Hillsboro, Carlinville,
Virden, Gillespie, White Hall, Nokomis, Elsberry, St. Paul, Moscow
Mills, Carrollton and Brighton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 in Illinois between exits 44 and 63.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 208 and 219.

This also includes Cuivre River State Park, Pere Marquette State
Park, Beaver Dam State Park, and Lake Lou Yaeger.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Illinois...and northeastern and east
central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3875 9083 3915 9127 3952 9017 3952 8953
      3935 8953 3934 8914 3925 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 311DEG 34KT 3963 8961 3914 9120

BSH