River Flood Warning 165, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Focus continues to be thunderstorm and severe threat through this
evening.

Surface low is currently centered over northwest MO with a front
across northern MO into west central IL. Congested CU developing
over NE MO and into west central IL as well as over far eastern
portions of the CWA as an outflow boundary pushes south. These two
areas should be a focus for development this afternoon. Once these
storms develop, they will likely quickly become severe.

With steep mid level lapse rates and high CAPE, hail will be a
threat. Mid levels are quite dry, which will help enhance the
downburst and cold pools. While hail will initially be a threat,
the threat should transition to a wind threat over the next couple
of hours. While a tornado threat can never be completely ruled
out, with 15 to 20kts of 0-3km shear, expect a low tornado threat
through the evening.

Upper low currently over NM is expected to continue moving east
and should lift into OK region by Thurs morning. This should help
support thunderstorm development over the region with a stalled
sfc front across the area. The focus should be over the southern
half or so of the CWA, but likely or higher PoPs may need to be
pulled further north. Given the rain southern portions of the CWA
have received yesterday, and additional rain this evening, will
need to consider potential for a flood headline for tomorrow and
potentially into Fri.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Models are in fairly good agreement suggesting the upper low
mentioned above becoming blocked by upper level ridging and
nearly stationary over northern AR into TN/KY region through the
weekend. While model solutions are in agreement with this trend,
placement of the upper low differ slightly. This will largely
determine placement of precip through the weekend. PoPs may
eventually need to be raised and moved further north, but will
need better agreement among models.

Agreement is better that a fairly strong cold front will push
through the region late Sun into Mon. As the surface ridge builds
into the area, the region will finally see a couple of days of dry
weather with seasonably cool temps. This will be somewhat short
lived as models suggest a fairly deep trof reaching the area by
Wed with the chance for storms continuing through the end of the
forecast period with continued cool temps.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

TSRA continue to push south across the region. Extent of severe
has been less than prev anticipated, but the threat continues into
the early evening. Behind the TSRA, expect VFR cigs overnight with
winds becoming lighter. Chances for precip return Thurs with light
NE winds.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
411 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061200-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
411 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to push south through the region this
evening. Some of these storms will likely be severe with damaging
winds and large hail as the the main threat.

Major river flooding is ongoing along parts of the Missouri,
Mississippi, Illinois, and Osage Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast each day through Tuesday.

Major river flooding will continue along parts of the Missouri,
Mississippi, Illinois, and Osage Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the National
Weather Service.

Tilly

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