River Flood Warning 116, NWS St. Louis, MO

226 
WGUS83 KLSX 010901
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
401 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-020901-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190502T1828Z/
/DRCM7.1.ER.190501T0608Z.190501T1200Z.190501T1828Z.UU/
401 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At  3:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 19.1 feet by this morning, then
  fall below flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   18.43      19.1   12.0    8.4    7.6    7.3


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

326 
WGUS83 KLSX 011457
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
957 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following creek in 
Missouri...
 
 
  Dardenne Creek at 
  
      St. Peters
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-021456-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190502T2150Z/
/DRCM7.1.ER.190501T0608Z.190501T1800Z.190501T2150Z.UU/
957 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* Until this afternoon.
* At 9:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 19.6 feet early this afternoon, 
  then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   19.38      13.2   10.3    5.9    3.9    3.1


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

982 
WGUS43 KLSX 011858
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
158 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following creek in Missouri...

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-021857-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190502T2212Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.190501T0608Z.190501T1800Z.190501T2212Z.UU/
158 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* At 1:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to crest near 20.3 feet early this afternoon
  and then quickly fall back below flood stage this evening.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.12      13.2   10.3    5.9    3.9    3.1


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

494 
WGUS83 KLSX 011956
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers and creeks in 
Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy
  
  Cuivre River at Old Monroe

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  North River at Palmyra

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190503T1942Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.190501T0817Z.190502T0000Z.190502T1942Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.7 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   26.86      24.4   13.6   10.4    8.6    8.0


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC113-021955-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.3.ER.190319T1215Z.190505T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* until further notice.
* At 2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 32.0 feet by early Sunday
  afternoon.
* Impact:  At 31.8 feet...Old Highway 79 floods between Old Monroe and
  Highway 79.
* Impact:  At 31.2 feet...Low steel on the BNSF railroad bridge is 
  reached.
* Impact:  At 30.8 feet...The Corner of Sycamore St. and First Street 
  is flooded.
* Impact:  At 30.0 feet...Major flooding begins.  Residential flooding
  in Old Monroe.
* Impact:  At 29.1 feet...Streets in Old Monroe begin flooding.
* Impact:  At 28.1 feet...Dyer Road upstream from the gage begins 
  flooding just downstream of the new Highway 79 bridge.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   27.93      29.3   30.0   30.6   31.9   31.9


&&


LAT...LON 3892 9081 3894 9070 3892 9070 3890 9080




$$

MOC183-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190503T0526Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.190501T0608Z.190502T0000Z.190502T0526Z.UU/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until late Thursday night.
* At  2:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The creek is forecast to crest near 20.9 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage after midnight tonight.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.28      14.3   10.1    5.7    3.5    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

MOC111-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-190504T0840Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190501T0409Z.190502T0000Z.190503T0840Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Friday night.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 14.4 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.30      13.9   10.5    7.7    6.3    5.5


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC127-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-190503T1030Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.190501T0036Z.190501T1815Z.190502T1030Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North River at Palmyra
* until late Thursday night.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   18.32      12.4    7.8    6.1    5.4    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

MOC111-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-190503T1900Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190501T0545Z.190501T1530Z.190502T1900Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   14.03      13.2    9.2    6.7    5.1    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-190504T0920Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190501T0258Z.190501T1215Z.190503T0920Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until late Friday night.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by
  Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   12.57      12.1    9.1    5.7    3.7    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190505T0312Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190430T2138Z.190501T1700Z.190504T0112Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Saturday evening.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Friday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   20.24      19.1   19.7   12.5    9.1    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

215 
WGUS83 KLSX 020251
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  North River at Palmyra

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers and creek
in Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190503T1917Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.190501T0817Z.190502T0000Z.190502T1917Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   27.36      24.3   13.3   10.2    8.5    8.0


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC183-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190503T0459Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.190501T0608Z.190501T2210Z.190502T0459Z.UU/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Thursday evening.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tonight.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.06      14.1   10.5    9.4    8.9    8.6


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

MOC111-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-190504T0900Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190501T0409Z.190502T0600Z.190503T0900Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Friday night.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is cresting near 14.5 feet, then fall below
  flood stage Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.48      14.0   10.6    7.7    6.3    5.6


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-190503T1600Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190501T0545Z.190501T1530Z.190502T1600Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Friday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tomorrow morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   13.66      12.6    9.4    6.6    5.2    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-190503T1415Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190501T0258Z.190501T1215Z.190502T1415Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Friday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tomorrow morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   11.23       9.8    7.3    5.1    3.4    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190505T0330Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190430T2138Z.190501T1700Z.190504T0130Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is cresting now, then fall below flood stage 
  Friday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   20.08      19.8   19.7   12.5    9.1    7.3


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

MOC127-020321-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-190503T1030Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.190501T0036Z.190501T1815Z.190502T0204Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North River at Palmyra.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  9:04 PM Wednesday.
* The river will continue falling to 7.9 feet by Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   12.63      10.5    7.9    6.5    5.3    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

111 
WGUS83 KLSX 021153
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
653 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following creek in 
Missouri...
 
 
  Dardenne Creek at 
  
      St. Peters
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-021223-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190503T0459Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.190501T0608Z.190501T2210Z.190502T0610Z.UU/
653 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Dardenne Creek at St. Peters.
* At 6:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The creek fell below flood stage at 1:10 AM Thursday.
* The creek is forecast to continue to fall to near 9.4 feet Saturday
  morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06  05/07

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   12.81      10.5    9.4    8.9    8.6    8.2


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
945 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Tornado watch has been expanded northward to included St. Louis.

Main concern into the overnight hours will be the potential for a
severe storms across southeast and east central Missouri into
southwest Illinois where a tornado watch is in effect until 3 am.
QLCS is currently moving eastward across south central Missouri
with isolated discrete storms ahead of it. Mesoanalysis still
shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of it with effective deep
shear of 40-50kts and 0-1km SRH of 200-400 along the surface
front. This will keep the threat for damaging winds and a few
tornadoes as the QLCS moves through eastern Missouri into
southwest Illinois.

The other threat remains flash flooding. Thunderstorms will
continue to train over parts of the area through the night, with
the QLCS producing a rapid burst of rain as it moves through over
already saturated ground.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Periods of SHRA/TSRA are expected to continue through Wed
evening.

A warm front was bisecting MO this afternoon, and it is forecast
to continue lifting slowly northward this evening, aided by the
development of a surface low along the boundary. The surface low
will lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes tonight and
tomorrow, but its associated upper trough will simultaneously
de-amplify and also lift northeastward. The motion of the upper
trough and the lack of a strong high pressure center at the
surface means that the surface baroclinic zone will not be driven
through the region as a cold front but will instead stretch from
southwest to northeast as it lingers across the region.

Taken together, this means that not only will convection be
occurring within a very moist air mass, but that there will
likely be several rounds of SHRA/TSRA occurring over the same
areas until the front has finally pushed south of the region later
this week. Given that forecast PW values of 1.5+" are at +3 SD
for April and +2 SD for May, the primary concern through Wed night
is flooding due to repeated periods of heavy rainfall. The
existing Flash Flood Watch looks reasonable and no changes are
planned to it at this time.

There is also a concern for severe weather both this afternoon
and tomorrow. For this afternoon, one mitigating factor is that
the direction of the CAPE and 0-6km shear gradients are opposed:
where the CAPE values were increasing, the shear values were
decreasing, and vice versa. That said, there is sufficient overlap
for ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms to persist through
early evening. For tomorrow, H7-H5 lapse rates are more favorable
(around 7 deg C/km), but shear values are less favorable except
for a corridor across southern MO. This suggests that the risk for
severe weather on Wed would be less widespread compared to today.

Extensive cloud cover and precipitation should keep overnight lows
several degrees warmer than last night. Highs on Wed should be in
the 70s (similar to or warmer than they were today) due to the
slight northwestward movement of the re-oriented quasistationary
boundary. Overnight lows on Wed night should be in the mid-50s to
lower 60s which is similar to what they will have been tonight.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

(Thursday)

Lots of uncertainty exists with respect to convective trends on
Thursday, and it will depend greatly on what occurs overnight
Wednesday night. Models show the lingering frontal boundary
finally beginning to move back to the south and east on Thursday
as a cold front. Like the previous couple of days, this front will
likely be the focus for convective development on Thursday. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon,
mainly across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois due to the expected frontal timing.

There is also low confidence in high temperatures on Thursday,
similar to convective trends due to uncertainty with frontal
placement/timing. However, general consensus is for highs to be
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast.

(Thursday Night - Saturday Night)

The cold front should exit the CWA by Thursday evening, but some
guidance suggests it may stall out just to the south of the area. If
this occurs, an additional round of showers and thunderstorms would
be possible Friday into Friday night for southern portions of the
forecast area.

A welcomed period of dry weather is likely for the most part Friday
night through Saturday night as an area of high pressure exerts its
influence into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Seasonable to slightly
below normal temperatures are also forecast for this same time
period.

(Sunday - Next Tuesday)

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Sunday
afternoon and evening with the approach of the next cold front. This
boundary may also stall out just to the south of the area and waver,
providing the focus for additional rounds of showers and storms into
early next week. Obviously, this type of setup if it comes to
fruition could aggravate ongoing river flooding.

Temperatures are likely to remain near seasonal norms to end this
weekend and to begin the next work week, but will depend heavily on
where the baroclinic axis resides.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected at all of the
terminals through at least 12Z before they become more scattered
on Thursday. Ceilings and visibilities with the storms are
expected to be MVFR/possibly IFR with occasional heavy rainfall.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected at the terminal
through at least 12Z before they become more scattered over
eastern Missouri. Ceilings and visibilities and with the storms
are expected to be MVFR/possibly IFR with occasional heavy
rainfall.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-012045-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
343 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of the storms could
be severe, especially this afternoon through this evening. The
primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire area tonight.
See the watch product for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of thunderstorms will continue through Friday night
across parts of the area. Some of the storms could be severe
Wednesday and Wednesday evening across the entire area, and again
Thursday and Thursday evening across southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois. The primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds
and large hail.

The numerous rounds of storms will also result in the potential for
flooding through Wednesday night. A flash flood watch continues in
effect through Wednesday night. See the watch product for specific
details.

In addition to the flash flood threat, the prolonged and potentially
heavy rainfall is forecast to impact the mainstem rivers. A number
of river forecast points on the Mississippi River above Alton are
forecast to return to moderate or major flooding.

There will also be a chance of thunderstorms for parts of the area
Sunday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening.
Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the National
Weather Service.

Gosselin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW MEXICO            39.18N 91.88W
04/30/2019  M1.65 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1026 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E JEFFERSON CITY      38.57N 92.15W
04/30/2019  M2.00 INCH       COLE               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1027 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SAINT PETERS            38.78N 90.60W
04/30/2019  M2.16 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1032 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHREWSBURY              38.59N 90.32W
04/30/2019  M2.25 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1036 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     FLOOD            OLYMPIAN VILLAGE        38.13N 90.46W
04/30/2019                   JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 ENE OF OLYMPIAN VILLAGE - BOYCE ROAD IS
            CLOSED AT PLANTAIN CREEK BRIDGE.

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1109 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALTON                   38.90N 90.15W
04/30/2019  M1.51 INCH       MADISON            IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

TILLY