River Flood Warning 112, NWS St. Louis, MO

819 
WGUS43 KLSX 010852
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
352 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Missouri...

  North River at Palmyra

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC127-020851-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-190503T0820Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.190501T0036Z.190501T1200Z.190502T0820Z.NO/
352 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The North River at Palmyra
* At  3:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* The river is forecast to crest near 18.0 feet this morning. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage early Thursday.
* Impact:  At 17.1 feet...Agricultural land along the left bank begins
  flooding near the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   17.08      18.0   11.9    7.6    5.9    5.3


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

613 
WGUS83 KLSX 011453
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
953 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
 
  Cuivre River near Troy

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  North River at Palmyra

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-021452-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190503T2000Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.190501T0817Z.190502T0000Z.190502T2000Z.NO/
953 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cuivre River near Troy
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 24.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.2 feet this evening.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins...significant 
  agricultural land is inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   24.74      24.5   14.1    9.5    7.9    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC127-021452-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-190503T1108Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.190501T0036Z.190501T1800Z.190502T1108Z.NO/
953 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The North River at Palmyra
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 18.3 feet this afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   18.15      12.7    7.7    6.1    5.3    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

MOC127-021452-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-190504T1717Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190501T0258Z.190502T1200Z.190503T1717Z.NO/
953 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fabius River near Taylor
* Until Friday afternoon.
* At 9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 13.9 feet Thursday morning.
* Impact:  At 13.7 feet...County Road 319 just north of the gage 
  begins to flood.
* Impact:  At 13.6 feet...Missouri State Route M west of Route D 
  begins flooding near this height.  This road closed during South 
  Fabius River flood of September 11, 2014.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   12.99      13.9   11.0    5.0    3.0    2.6


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-021452-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190505T0040Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190430T2138Z.190501T1800Z.190503T2240Z.NO/
953 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* Until Friday evening.
* At 9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 20.4 feet this afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   20.28      19.2   19.3   10.6    8.0    6.7


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

494 
WGUS83 KLSX 011956
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers and creeks in 
Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy
  
  Cuivre River at Old Monroe

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  North River at Palmyra

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190503T1942Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.190501T0817Z.190502T0000Z.190502T1942Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.7 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   26.86      24.4   13.6   10.4    8.6    8.0


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC113-021955-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.3.ER.190319T1215Z.190505T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* until further notice.
* At 2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 32.0 feet by early Sunday
  afternoon.
* Impact:  At 31.8 feet...Old Highway 79 floods between Old Monroe and
  Highway 79.
* Impact:  At 31.2 feet...Low steel on the BNSF railroad bridge is 
  reached.
* Impact:  At 30.8 feet...The Corner of Sycamore St. and First Street 
  is flooded.
* Impact:  At 30.0 feet...Major flooding begins.  Residential flooding
  in Old Monroe.
* Impact:  At 29.1 feet...Streets in Old Monroe begin flooding.
* Impact:  At 28.1 feet...Dyer Road upstream from the gage begins 
  flooding just downstream of the new Highway 79 bridge.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   27.93      29.3   30.0   30.6   31.9   31.9


&&


LAT...LON 3892 9081 3894 9070 3892 9070 3890 9080




$$

MOC183-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190503T0526Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.190501T0608Z.190502T0000Z.190502T0526Z.UU/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until late Thursday night.
* At  2:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The creek is forecast to crest near 20.9 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage after midnight tonight.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.28      14.3   10.1    5.7    3.5    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

MOC111-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-190504T0840Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190501T0409Z.190502T0000Z.190503T0840Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Friday night.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 14.4 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.30      13.9   10.5    7.7    6.3    5.5


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC127-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-190503T1030Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.190501T0036Z.190501T1815Z.190502T1030Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North River at Palmyra
* until late Thursday night.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   18.32      12.4    7.8    6.1    5.4    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

MOC111-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-190503T1900Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190501T0545Z.190501T1530Z.190502T1900Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   14.03      13.2    9.2    6.7    5.1    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-190504T0920Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190501T0258Z.190501T1215Z.190503T0920Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until late Friday night.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by
  Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   12.57      12.1    9.1    5.7    3.7    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-021955-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190505T0312Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190430T2138Z.190501T1700Z.190504T0112Z.NO/
256 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Saturday evening.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Friday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   20.24      19.1   19.7   12.5    9.1    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

215 
WGUS83 KLSX 020251
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  North River at Palmyra

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers and creek
in Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

  North Fabius River near Ewing

  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

  South Fabius River near Taylor

  Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190503T1917Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.190501T0817Z.190502T0000Z.190502T1917Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   27.36      24.3   13.3   10.2    8.5    8.0


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC183-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-190503T0459Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.190501T0608Z.190501T2210Z.190502T0459Z.UU/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Thursday evening.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tonight.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.06      14.1   10.5    9.4    8.9    8.6


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

MOC111-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-190504T0900Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.190501T0409Z.190502T0600Z.190503T0900Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Friday night.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is cresting near 14.5 feet, then fall below
  flood stage Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.48      14.0   10.6    7.7    6.3    5.6


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-190503T1600Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.190501T0545Z.190501T1530Z.190502T1600Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* until Friday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tomorrow morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   13.66      12.6    9.4    6.6    5.2    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

MOC127-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-190503T1415Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.190501T0258Z.190501T1215Z.190502T1415Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Friday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tomorrow morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5   11.23       9.8    7.3    5.1    3.4    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       



$$

MOC137-030250-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-190505T0330Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.190430T2138Z.190501T1700Z.190504T0130Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mid Fork Salt River near Holliday
* until Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is cresting now, then fall below flood stage 
  Friday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Salt River
  Holliday        17.0   20.08      19.8   19.7   12.5    9.1    7.3


&&


LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199
      3952 9221                       



$$

MOC127-020321-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-190503T1030Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.190501T0036Z.190501T1815Z.190502T0204Z.NO/
951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North River at Palmyra.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  9:04 PM Wednesday.
* The river will continue falling to 7.9 feet by Friday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   12.63      10.5    7.9    6.5    5.3    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Periods of SHRA/TSRA are expected to continue through Wed
evening.

A warm front was bisecting MO this afternoon, and it is forecast
to continue lifting slowly northward this evening, aided by the
development of a surface low along the boundary. The surface low
will lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes tonight and
tomorrow, but its associated upper trough will simultaneously
de-amplify and also lift northeastward. The motion of the upper
trough and the lack of a strong high pressure center at the
surface means that the surface baroclinic zone will not be driven
through the region as a cold front but will instead stretch from
southwest to northeast as it lingers across the region.

Taken together, this means that not only will convection be
occurring within a very moist air mass, but that there will
likely be several rounds of SHRA/TSRA occurring over the same
areas until the front has finally pushed south of the region later
this week. Given that forecast PW values of 1.5+" are at +3 SD
for April and +2 SD for May, the primary concern through Wed night
is flooding due to repeated periods of heavy rainfall. The
existing Flash Flood Watch looks reasonable and no changes are
planned to it at this time.

There is also a concern for severe weather both this afternoon
and tomorrow. For this afternoon, one mitigating factor is that
the direction of the CAPE and 0-6km shear gradients are opposed:
where the CAPE values were increasing, the shear values were
decreasing, and vice versa. That said, there is sufficient overlap
for ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms to persist through
early evening. For tomorrow, H7-H5 lapse rates are more favorable
(around 7 deg C/km), but shear values are less favorable except
for a corridor across southern MO. This suggests that the risk for
severe weather on Wed would be less widespread compared to today.

Extensive cloud cover and precipitation should keep overnight lows
several degrees warmer than last night. Highs on Wed should be in
the 70s (similar to or warmer than they were today) due to the
slight northwestward movement of the re-oriented quasistationary
boundary. Overnight lows on Wed night should be in the mid-50s to
lower 60s which is similar to what they will have been tonight.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

(Thursday)

Lots of uncertainty exists with respect to convective trends on
Thursday, and it will depend greatly on what occurs overnight
Wednesday night. Models show the lingering frontal boundary
finally beginning to move back to the south and east on Thursday
as a cold front. Like the previous couple of days, this front will
likely be the focus for convective development on Thursday. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon,
mainly across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois due to the expected frontal timing.

There is also low confidence in high temperatures on Thursday,
similar to convective trends due to uncertainty with frontal
placement/timing. However, general consensus is for highs to be
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast.

(Thursday Night - Saturday Night)

The cold front should exit the CWA by Thursday evening, but some
guidance suggests it may stall out just to the south of the area. If
this occurs, an additional round of showers and thunderstorms would
be possible Friday into Friday night for southern portions of the
forecast area.

A welcomed period of dry weather is likely for the most part Friday
night through Saturday night as an area of high pressure exerts its
influence into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Seasonable to slightly
below normal temperatures are also forecast for this same time
period.

(Sunday - Next Tuesday)

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Sunday
afternoon and evening with the approach of the next cold front. This
boundary may also stall out just to the south of the area and waver,
providing the focus for additional rounds of showers and storms into
early next week. Obviously, this type of setup if it comes to
fruition could aggravate ongoing river flooding.

Temperatures are likely to remain near seasonal norms to end this
weekend and to begin the next work week, but will depend heavily on
where the baroclinic axis resides.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: Additional SHRA/TSRA are expected to
develop and affect the terminals, leading to a prolonged period of
unsettled weather. Conditions will temporarily deteriorate to
MVFR or lower during periods of SHRA/TSRA followed by a decrease
in the prevailing ceiling height after 01/00-03z once a broader
area of clouds moves over KCOU and KUIN. Initially easterly winds
will become southerly after a low pressure system lifts through
the region.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Scattered SHRA/TSRA may affect
the St. Louis area terminals for the next few hours followed by
additional periods of SHRA/TSRA during the remainder of the TAF
period. A gust front was noted on radar and the wind shift
associated with it has been timed out as arriving at the terminals
between 19-20z. Initially easterly to southeasterly winds will
become southerly to southwesterly after a low pressure system
lifts through the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint
     Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-
     Warren MO-Washington MO.

     Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois
     MO-Sainte Genevieve MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison
     IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Saint Clair IL.

     Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Marion IL-Randolph IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-012045-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
343 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of the storms could
be severe, especially this afternoon through this evening. The
primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire area tonight.
See the watch product for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of thunderstorms will continue through Friday night
across parts of the area. Some of the storms could be severe
Wednesday and Wednesday evening across the entire area, and again
Thursday and Thursday evening across southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois. The primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds
and large hail.

The numerous rounds of storms will also result in the potential for
flooding through Wednesday night. A flash flood watch continues in
effect through Wednesday night. See the watch product for specific
details.

In addition to the flash flood threat, the prolonged and potentially
heavy rainfall is forecast to impact the mainstem rivers. A number
of river forecast points on the Mississippi River above Alton are
forecast to return to moderate or major flooding.

There will also be a chance of thunderstorms for parts of the area
Sunday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening.
Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the National
Weather Service.

Gosselin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             TROY                    38.73N 89.89W
04/30/2019  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             1 E COLLINSVILLE        38.68N 89.98W
04/30/2019  E2.00 INCH       MADISON            IL   PUBLIC

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             4 SE COLLINSVILLE       38.64N 89.95W
04/30/2019  E1.00 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   PUBLIC

&&

TILLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
524 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

MOZ049-059-062-072-073-302330-
Gasconade MO-Washington MO-Franklin MO-Osage MO-Crawford MO-
524 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...WESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND SOUTHERN
GASCONADE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of St. James, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, St. Clair, Cuba, Owensville, New Haven, Bourbon, Belle,
Gerald, Bland, Rosebud, Leasburg, Miramiguoa Park, Beaufort, Drake,
Leslie, St. Cloud, Canaan, Noser Mill, Japan and Stanton.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 203 and 230.

This also includes Onondaga Cave State Park and Meramec State Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3861 9124 3820 9092 3791 9153 3815 9153
      3815 9164 3829 9165 3829 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 234DEG 37KT 3810 9169

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             ALHAMBRA                38.89N 89.73W
04/30/2019  E1.75 INCH       MADISON            IL   PUBLIC

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW MEXICO            39.18N 91.88W
04/30/2019  M1.00 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TILLY