Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS St. Louis, MO

003 
WGUS73 KLSX 221131
FFSLSX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

ILC119-MOC071-099-183-189-510-221500-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-190722T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison IL-St. Louis City MO-St. Charles MO-Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-
St. Louis MO-
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND ST.
LOUIS COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ST. LOUIS CITY...

At 630 AM CDT, broadcast media reported flash flooding in Eureka and 
Chesterfield, including at least one water rescue. Two to as much as 
five inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
St. Louis, St. Charles, St. Peters, Florissant, Chesterfield,
Wildwood, University City, Ballwin, Granite City, Alton, Kirkwood,
Maryland Heights, Hazelwood, Webster Groves, Ferguson, Manchester,
Godfrey, Creve Coeur, Overland and Clayton.

Additional rainfall amounts of around one inch are possible in the 
warned area.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 253 and 277.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 228 and 231.

This also includes Babler Memorial State Park, Scott Joplin Historic
Site, Route 66 State Park, Castlewood State Park, Confluence State
Park, and First Missouri State Capitol Historic Site.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 9013 3866 9018 3860 9019 3852 9027
      3836 9075 3854 9086 3869 9067 3873 9064
      3892 9028 3900 9027 3900 9014 3897 9003

$$

Gosselin

217 
WGUS73 KLSX 221339
FFSLSX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
839 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

ILC119-MOC071-099-183-189-510-221500-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-190722T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison IL-St. Louis City MO-St. Charles MO-Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-
St. Louis MO-
839 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND ST.
LOUIS COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ST. LOUIS CITY...

At 831 AM CDT, flash flooding was occurring across across the warned 
area due to heavy rainfall overnight and this morning. Radar 
estimates show 3 to 5 inches of rain have already fallen and there 
are several reports of over 5 inches near Eureka. Small stream gages 
indicate flooding of Deer Creek and Two Mile Creek in Ladue, Creve 
Coeur Creek, Bonhomme Creek, and Caulks Creek in Chesterfield, and 
Fee Fee Creek in Maryland Heights. There are other small streams and 
creeks that are also experiencing flooding.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
St. Louis, St. Charles, St. Peters, Florissant, Chesterfield,
Wildwood, University City, Ballwin, Granite City, Alton, Kirkwood,
Maryland Heights, Hazelwood, Webster Groves, Ferguson, Manchester,
Godfrey, Creve Coeur, Overland and Clayton.

This includes the following highways... Interstate 44 in Missouri 
between exits 253 and 277.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 228 and 231.

This also includes Babler Memorial State Park, Scott Joplin Historic
Site, Route 66 State Park, Castlewood State Park, Confluence State
Park, and First Missouri State Capitol Historic Site.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 9013 3866 9018 3860 9019 3852 9027
      3836 9075 3854 9086 3869 9067 3873 9064
      3892 9028 3900 9027 3900 9014 3897 9003

$$

Glass

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul
22 2019

Showers and storms will continue to push southeast out of the
region as a shortwave and the upper levels of an associated cold
front push through the region. Extrapolation of the back edge of
the precipitation, which is currently stretching from NE to SW
MO, shows the precip clearing the area by 18z. This matches well
with the CAMs and have therefore aligned the forecast with this
timing. GLM shows limited thunder across the area this morning,
and with limited instability, thinking we'll see more showers than
storms. That said, these showers have proven to be efficient
rainfall producers, with a weak cell over the office putting down
about 0.2" of rain in 10 minutes earlier this morning. These
scattered but intense downpours could still result in isolated
flash flooding, especially toward southern Missouri.

Cool air will funnel into the area behind the front, resulting in
considerably cooler conditions this afternoon. Good guidance
consensus showing highs this afternoon only reaching right around
80 and overnight lows near 60. With dewpoints forecast to drop
from the 60s today into the 50s overnight, we'll be looking at
heat index readings 20-30 degrees cooler than what we've seen the
last several days

BSH

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon
Jul 22 2019

A large ridge will build into the western CONUS through much of
the week, keeping the mid-Mississippi Valley entrenched in
northwest upper level flow through at least Thursday. By the end
of the week, guidance in good agreement showing another shortwave
moving down from Canada which should begin to break down the
ridge and establish more zonal flow across the region. This
evolution of the upper levels will allow for high pressure to
gradually build into the region through the week before moving
east of the area by the end of the week. With generally northerly
flow until the high passes to our east on Thursday, we will be in
store for continued below normal temperatures through at least
Thursday. As flow swings around to the SW by Friday, temps should
then begin to moderate.

With the above progression, models show little to no forcing for
ascent and therefore no precipitation in the forecast beyond
today. However, some of the higher resolution models do show a
few ripples embedded in the NW flow. Should these waves sync up
with peak daytime heating, it's possible that we see isolated
showers or storms. However, given little to no model consensus
regarding these features, it's impossible to nail down whether or
not these showers will develop and have therefore gone with a dry
forecast beyond this afternoon.

BSH

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Showers and storms will impact the taf sites late tonight as an
upper level disturbance currently over northeastern KS and an
associated cold front moves southeastward through our area late
tonight and Monday morning with the strongest convection in the
vicinity of the effective boundary across southern portions of MO
and IL. The best coverage of convection and heavier rainfall will
occur just south of COU and STL. The cloud ceiling may lower into
the MVFR category in COU and the St Louis metro area late tonight
and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will rise back into
the VFR category by late Monday morning as the rain begins to
shift southeast of the taf sites. Northerly surface winds will
continue through the period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Showers and storms will impact STL late
tonight as an upper level disturbance currently over northeastern
KS and an associated cold front moves southeastward through our
area late tonight and Monday morning with the strongest convection
in the vicinity of the effective boundary across southern
portions of MO and IL. St Louis will be on the northern fringes of
the heavier rainfall.  The cloud ceiling may lower into the MVFR
category late tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling
will rise back into the VFR category by late Monday morning as
the rain begins to shift southeast of STL. Northerly surface
winds will continue through the period.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
344 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-230845-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
344 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning, exiting the area by
noon. Isolated heavy rain is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms may linger into early Monday morning for portions of
the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

BSH