High Surf Advisory 13, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1147 PM PDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...10/700 PM.

Gusty northerly winds will continue tonight, especially in the
mountains and southern Santa Barbara county. Winds should decrease
on Thursday and pick back up in intensity Thursday night and
Friday as an inside slider approaches. A brief ridge of high
pressure will provide some relief to the winds on Saturday with
slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...10/822 PM.

***UPDATE***

There have been strong north pressure gradients continuing this
evening, with LAX-SFO at -7.3 mb and LAX-BFL at -5.1 mb at 03Z.
Gusty W to N winds prevailed this evening for many areas,
including portions of the coastal plain. In fact, LAX recently had
north winds gusting up to 30 mph. The strongest winds overnight
will be over the SBA County mtns and S coast, as well as the
L.A./VTU County mtns especially along the I-5 corridor. Wind
gusts in these areas are expected to be in the 40 to 50 mph range.
Wind advisories are in effect thru 11 AM Thu morning for these
areas.

Clear skies covered the forecast area this evening which will
continue overnight thanks to the northerly offshore flow.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s for the coast
and vlys, which are about 2 to 8 deg above normal for this time
of year.

***From Previous Discussion***

Will let the wind advisories ride through tomorrow morning.
Without the upper support winds may drop off a little sooner,
especially in the I5 region, but the next trough coming in
tomorrow night into early Friday is expected to provide some
additional upper support to create a 5-15 mph bump in wind speeds
into Friday morning.

Not too much change in temps next couple days. A little bit of a
mixed bag of temperature trends Saturday. Most areas will see at
least some warming as ridging develops aloft and west/east
gradients trend offshore. However, SB south coast will likely cool
a few degrees as the warming Sundowner winds subside in favor of
earlier sea breezes.

The Thursday night/Friday trough will be an inside slider and
because of that generally dry for most of our area. However, as
was the case last night and this morning we will again likely see
some light showers near our border with Kern County stretching
from southeast SLO County through around the Gorman area near I5.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/202 PM.

The next trough coming in Sunday night will start a cooling trend
in all areas Sunday into Monday as onshore flow returns with
a vengeance. Will probably see a marine layer returning to most
coast and valley areas by Monday morning and again Tuesday
morning. Temps falling back into the 60s to low 70s by Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday the eastern Pacific ridge will push into
the west coast and at the same time gradients will be trending
strongly offshore as surface high pressure strengthens behind the
trough over Nevada. The two factors will combine to begin a
significant warming trend that should continue at least into next
Thursday. Not seeing enough of a gradient or upper support yet for
any significant Santa Ana winds but the offshore flow should be
enough to warm temps back up into the 80s for the valleys and 70s
at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0613Z.

At 0545Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based
inversion with a top of 700 feet and a temperature of 20 C.

Hi confidence CAVU conditions in all TAFs xcp KSMX where there
will be some MVFR vsbys. Lower confidence in wind forecasts.

KLAX...Hi confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in wind
forecast. There is a 30 percent of 15 to 20 kt xwinds aft 02Z.

BUR...Hi confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in wind
forecast with a 30 percent chc of gusty winds NNW winds.

&&

.MARINE...10/841 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate-to-high confidence in Gales
continuing through Friday night. Higher confidence for Thursday
and Thursday night. Northwest wind gusts expected to reach 40
knots, with potential for isolated 45 knots or more at times. The
winds could subside just below gales for a few hours late tonight
and into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to increase
again Thursday afternoon and continue through Friday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, generally hi confidence
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue each
afternoon and evening through Friday evening and be strongest in
the western portion.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in Small Craft Advisory level winds will continue at times through
Friday. There is a 30 percent chance of gales on Thursday
afternoon and evening especially west portions.

&&

.BEACHES...10/844 PM.

A Beach Hazards Statement was extended through 6 AM Thursday for
the LA/Ventura coast for elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on west-
facing beaches. There is an increased risk for ocean drowning.
Rip currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Thursday for zones
      39-52>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 645-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sweet/Sirard
BEACHES...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Stewart

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