Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Updated at 315 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...Strong to Severe Storms Through Early Evening...

Outflow-dominated MCS entering SW Indiana will be the main player
through this evening, but we are also seeing more popcorn-type
convection out ahead of that line as a result of differential
heating at the edge of the MCS anvil. A few of these storms east of
I-65 have pulsed up to marginally severe levels, but organized SVR
is not expected with this activity. The main line will push across
southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky through sunset, and
downdraft CAPE approaching 1500 J/kg will support a continued
damaging wind threat. SVR Watch 604 is in effect until 9 PM but
expect to chip away at it from the NW once the main line passes. The
line should really weaken once it gets solidly into Kentucky is it
quickly runs out of instability.

Hi-res models suggest redevelopment is possible overnight,
especially heading north into Indiana, so we'll hang on to a 20-30
POP through the night. Wednesday will be the last day for this
tropical air mass, with hot and humid conditions once again. Temps
solidly in the 90s and dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will push heat
index values very close to advisory thresholds. However, precip
chances will again ramp up in the afternoon and that could limit the
window for any dangerous heat, so we'll just mention the triple-
digit heat indices in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Primary storm
threats will be cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rainfall given
slow storm motion.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Updated at 250 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Wednesday Night - Friday...

An active pattern looks in store through the end of the work week. A
cold front will move into the Ohio Valley and linger providing focus
for multiple rounds of storms Wed night through Friday. While no
organized severe threat looks likely at this time, cannot rule out
some strong storms with gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall.

Temps will cool down through the end of the week into the upper
70s/lower 80s for highs by Fri.  Lows Fri night should be in the 60s.

Saturday - Tuesday...

We should see a drier trend for the weekend, although some data
still hangs some showers up along our southern border through the
weekend. Will keep some mention of precipitation chances in the
forecast, but overall should expect a mostly dry and pleasant
weekend as surface high pressure tries to take hold north of the
front. Highs should top out in the low and mid 80s, with pleasant
lows in the low to mid 60s.

Small shower and storm chances continue into the new work week,
although the lack of a notable trigger will likely keep coverage
pretty low. Temps start to trend back closer to normal with highs in
the mid to upper 80s returning.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Main concern is the timing and impact of incoming convective
complex. Fairly high forecast confidence for HNB, where we expect
storms with IFR cig/vis and gusts hitting a solid 30 kt around 20Z.
Still think the worst weather will be fairly brief, so will carry a
TEMPO to show some wiggle room. Expect the line of storms to push on
into SDF around 21Z, and BWG/LEX after 22Z. There is a split
starting to form in the line, which has the most impact on forecast
confidence for LEX, but we have included VCTS for pop-up cells
forming ahead of the main line.

By mid/late evening, even the trailing stratiform showers should be
tapering off, and a mid-level ceiling overnight will be the worst-
case scenario. If any of the terminals pick up heavy rain, that
could drive some fog potential for Wed morning, but will not include
restrictions in any of the TAFs.  SW winds and scattered Cu expected
by late Wed morning as mixing picks up again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-211930-
Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 /222 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will produce frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and locally gusty winds through
early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night
through early Friday. Slow moving storms could produce heavy
rainfall, which could result in localized flooding.

Outside of these cooling rains, heat index values Wednesday afternoon
will reach around 100 degrees, possibly approaching 105 in the
Louisville and Bowling Green metro areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-211930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Spencer-Nelson-Larue-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Taylorsville, Bardstown,
and Hodgenville
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 /222 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of strong to severe storms late this afternoon and early this
evening will produce locally damaging winds, mainly in southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning will also be a hazard from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night
through early Friday. Slow moving storms could produce heavy
rainfall, which could result in localized flooding.

Outside of these cooling rains, it will be hot during peak heating
Wednesday afternoon. Look for peak heat indices generally around 100
degrees, possibly approaching 105 in the Louisville and Bowling
Green metro areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS/AMS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KYZ041-049-057-202030-
Fayette-Clark-Madison-
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...NORTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cadentown,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Winchester, Hootentown, Chilesburg, Coletown, Lyndale,
Lisletown, Athens, Avon and Tebbs.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3785 8439 3795 8448 3809 8432 3808 8430
      3807 8429 3807 8427 3796 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 232DEG 15KT 3794 8436

SSC