Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
723 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Atmosphere has destabilized and storms have initiated over Illinois
and Indiana. Decent focus from just north of Vincennes to near
Seymour. Strong instability in place with sfc-based CAPE over 3000
J/kg, and well over 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE across all of
southern Indiana and most of north central Kentucky. Main threat
will be damaging winds, primarily of the pulse variety, but there is
just enough shear that we can't rule out enough organization for
storms to develop a cold pool and start diving southward. Southern
boundary of WW 332 may be generous by a row of counties to cover
that possibility.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Current synoptic setup has a cut-off low over New Mexico with weak
upper ridging to the north and zonal upper-level flow over the Ohio
Valley. Isolated afternoon pop up showers and thunderstorms are
still a possibility today as we sit within a moist and unstable air
mass with CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. Deep level shear is less
impressive, which would suggest that any storms that do develop
would be pulsey in nature. Hazards associated with any isolated
afternoon/early evening storms would be brief heavy rain, local
gusty winds and possible hail. Surface winds from the southwest will
continue to gust into the low 20mph range until near sunset.

A 500 mb shortwave, currently over the Great Lakes, will travel east
throughout the evening. Models are in fair agreement with a line of
storms moving south into southern Indiana later this evening into
the overnight hours. The 05/17Z HRRR brings this line into southern
Indiana by 06/00Z, but shows a weakening trend as it moves into
central KY. The 3K NAM is a bit slower with a showtime of 06/02Z,
but agrees with the weakening trend. SPC has placed a portion of our
western southern Indiana counties with an Enhanced Risk and the rest
of our forecast area within a Slight Risk with the most likely
hazard being damaging winds. Short range models show most of this
activity moving out of our area by Thursday morning.

We'll remain in an unstable environment Thursday as the cut-off low
edges closer from the west bringing continued chances of showers and
thunderstorms enhanced by diurnal instability. Forecast soundings
show a drastic decrease in wind speed aloft, with speeds less than
20 knots up to 400mb. This will result in slow moving storms, which
could pose localized flooding issues anywhere heavy rain should
occur. Expect to see broken to overcast skies with max temps
reaching into the low 80s with dewpoints sitting uncomfortably in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Thursday Night...

Scattered showers and storms will likely continue into at least the
first part of the Thursday night time frame, until instability is
lost. The pulse severe threat will likely be diminishing, however
the localized Flash Flooding threat will likely linger a bit as
storms will be nearly stationary and should be quite efficient
rainfall producers.

Friday - Monday...

The well-advertised cutoff low will move into and wobble around the
TN Valley through the weekend. This feature will provide focus for
scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend as
waves of energy rotate around the parent low. Waves of deeper
moisture will also rotate into the region at times, providing
precipitable water values up around 2" at times. A localized Flash
Flooding threat is expected to continue during this time, and may
increase with each round of storms, especially for areas that see
repeated instances of heavy rain.

Given extensive cloud cover and plenty of precipitation, look for
small diurnal temperature ranges through the weekend. Highs should
mostly be in the upper 70s and low 80s, while lows should mostly be
in the 65 to 70 degree range.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

The parent low will be over the Gulf Coast region by this time, and
will likely be swept by a northern stream shortwave trough. This
will help to push the deep moisture out of our region, and will also
swing a notable cold front through our region Monday night. As a
result, we'll see a return to dry and pleasant conditions through
mid week. Highs are expected to run a bit below normal in the upper
70s to around 80. Meanwhile, lows will drop into the upper 50s and
low 60s as dew points trend lower in the Canadian origin airmass.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Convection over southern Indiana will drop southward into HNB, SDF,
and LEX over the next few hrs. Have included TEMPO for MVFR vis, as
we expect any IFR restrictions to be very short-lived and the
ceilings will stay VFR. Expect storms to die down late this evening,
with light winds and mid-level ceilings. Enough trapped moisture by
daybreak to drop ceilings into MVFR, with a very close call for fuel-
alternate. Will only take SDF into fuel-alternate, keeping LEX and
HNB just above 2000 feet for the morning. Ceilings should lift to
VFR early in the afternoon, with enough of a storm chance near a
quasi-stationary boundary to support VCTS.

BWG should remain high and dry this evening, and VFR on Thu morning,
but will get in on the possible convection in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...CG
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019 /231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Chance of isolated severe thunderstorms are still possible this
afternoon through this evening. These storms will be capable of
damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and lightning. A line of
storms will move through the area this evening into the early
morning hours. The main hazard associated with this line is potential
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Storm chances will likely continue into early next week as a slow
moving low pressure system over the central United States approaches
our area. Localized heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms
will be possible during this timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday.

CG/BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAYSVILLE              38.62N 86.28W
06/05/2019                   WASHINGTON         IN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN CLAYSVILLE, IN ALONG W LOST
            RIVER RD.

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             1 NE MILLERSBURG        38.56N 86.32W
06/05/2019  E1.00 INCH       ORANGE             IN   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 ENE LIVONIA           38.57N 86.24W
06/05/2019  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
738 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEIPSIC             38.68N 86.37W
06/05/2019                   ORANGE             IN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG 840 N AND 450 E.

&&

JML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
741 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KYZ033-060015-
Henry-
741 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY...

At 741 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
New Castle, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Royal, Drennon Springs, Lacie, Delville, Bethlehem, Slabtown,
Lockport and Franklinton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3855 8500 3851 8503 3852 8498 3849 8499
      3848 8497 3846 8495 3846 8491 3844 8493
      3845 8494 3844 8496 3843 8495 3837 8504
      3850 8517 3858 8508 3856 8506 3857 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 295DEG 15KT 3852 8509

AMS

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