Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
712 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 552 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Keeping an eye on an MCS and a supercell to our north diving
southeastward.

The original complex, now moving through the Indianapolis metro, had
been struggling to produce much more than pea sized hail. Recently
though it has begun to bow out and there have been gusts of 60 mph
on the north side of Indianapolis. As this complex continues to head
southeast it will enter an air mass that is more stable with less
moisture in the column and weaker mid-level lapse rates.
Nevertheless, will need to keep an eye on this convection as it may
clip Jefferson County Indiana. Its forward motion has increased in
the last half hour as its gust front pushes forward, so timing is
tricky, but at its current movement it could be in or near the
Madison area between 6:30 and 7:30. By then it will likely be in a
weaker condition that it is now, but will still be capable of gusty
winds and small hail.

A supercell developed earlier near Danville, Illinois, west of the
main complex. That cell is located in a much more unstable
atmosphere with stronger CAPE, much higher PWAT, and steeper mid-
level lapse rates. On its current trajectory it could reach northern
Washington County Indiana around 8pm according to the latest radar
animation. Take that timing and positioning with a large grain of
salt, though, as the storm is still quite a distance away and much
could change, especially if the storm bows and accelerates.

These storms may still pack a punch as they enter southern Indiana,
but should weaken as they approach the Ohio River. As the sun sets
CIN will increase and SPC RAP shows the significant hail parameter
decreasing. We spoke with SPC earlier and they too felt that the
convection should begin to lose some of its intensity this evening
as it moves southward. Still, it will be important to keep an eye on
them as they approach.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

...Isolated strong storms possible this evening and tonight...

Current radar imagery shows an MCS in IL that is expected to affect
IN/OH and portions of KY shortly after sunset. Aside from some
temporal disagreement, multiple hi-res models have isolated showers
and thunderstorms developing across our CWA, so decided to carry
slight chances during the overnight hours. Gusty winds, hail, and
heavy rainfall will be possible in the stronger or severe storms,
with the best chances for severe weather across northern portions of
the region. Overnight lows will stay warm from SW flow, and are only
expected to fall into the mid 60s.

Friday will be very warm and dry as a ridge begins to build in from
the west. As a result, highs are forecast to climb into the upper
80s and even into the low 90s in urban metro areas. Dewpoints will
be in the upper 60s as well, so Friday looks to be quite muggy!

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Friday through Saturday Night...

By Friday morning, we'll be on the periphery of the Gulf ridge with
a likely band of showers and storms moving from northern IL through
IN and OH and into WV.  Throughout the day, the ridge is expected to
strengthen and this should limit our convective coverage for the
day.  Latest guidance suggest it will be a warm and humid day with
highs topping out in the mid-upper 80s.  If enough insolation
occurs, we could hit 90 in the Louisville metro area Friday
afternoon.  Dry and muggy conditions are expected for Friday night
with lows in the  mid-upper 60s.

Ridge axis should continue to build northward slightly on Saturday
resulting in another warm and muggy day with highs solidly in the
mid-upper 80s.  Lows Saturday night will remain in the mid-upper 60s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

By Sunday morning, the ridge axis is forecast to break down to our
west while a mid-level wave and associated surface low and frontal
boundary approach from the west.  As this feature pushes eastward,
it will pose a threat of severe weather from the Plains and into the
Midwest.  However, as it approaches our area, the moisture transport
with the system is sufficiently less.  Despite the lesser degree of
moisture, combination of synoptic scale lift and frontal lift should
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the
region on Sunday.  Some storms could be strong with damaging winds
being the main threat.

Frontal boundary may take its time moving through the region as
becomes stretched out and perhaps even occluded.  Thus, some chances
of showers and storms seems reasonable across our eastern sections
on Monday, with a decidedly drier pattern evolving from west to east
throughout the day.  The upper pattern looks to reamplify a bit on
Tuesday as another strong trough pushes into the Plains. Downstream,
we'll see ridging over our area which should result in a slightly
drier pattern for Tuesday.  Aforementioned Plains trough is forecast
to move eastward and may impact our region around Wednesday.  Just
as in the weekend system, the moisture transport with this system
appears to weaken as the boundary heads into the Ohio Valley.
Though, enough lift and upper dynamics suggest at least another
round of showers and storms on Wednesday.

Temperatures through the period will remain quite warm with daily
highs in the in the low-mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 712 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Storms over southern Indiana will continue to cruise to the
southeast but are expected to weaken as they do so. SDF and LEX will
stand the best shot at storms this evening, along with the
possibility of a gust front bringing gusty northwest winds just
ahead of the storms.

Overnight convection will continue to diminish, but some LLWS will
be possible, especially at SDF and LEX, on the edge of a low level
jet from Indiana into Ohio.

Tomorrow should provide uneventful weather, other than some slightly
gusty afternoon winds, with upper ridging building overhead.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...13
Short Term...SSC
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-171930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
326 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019 /226 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over the
region. If storms develop, the strongest cells could produce strong
surface wind gusts, hail, brief heavy rain, and cloud to ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
outlook area on Sunday and then again on Wednesday. Any storm will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and cloud to ground
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening if storms move into the
region.

SSC/RJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
728 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

INZ078-079-KYZ032-170000-
Jefferson-Scott-Trimble-
728 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON...SCOTT AND
TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

At 727 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from 7 miles
northeast of Madison to near Seymour. Movement was south at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Scottsburg, Bedford, Vienna, Austin, Lexington, Hanover,
Saluda, Smyrna, and Milton.

Frequent lightning is occurring. Lightning can strike 10 miles away
from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or
vehicle.

LAT...LON 3886 8524 3881 8520 3869 8520 3874 8527
      3874 8533 3863 8523 3858 8521 3858 8517
      3855 8521 3864 8583 3873 8589 3873 8585
      3880 8580 3883 8573 3882 8570 3882 8561
      3885 8561 3885 8557 3891 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 337DEG 36KT 3882 8530 3892 8596

13