Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Updated at 310 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Diffuse sfc boundary is moving south and east across the Ohio Valley
this afternoon, with decent low-level moisture pooling and upper
trofiness to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms. Both
instability and shear are just weak enough to limit storm
organization and severity, so locally heavy rainfall will be the
main threat. Any flooding will be fairly localized as most areas
have been dry enough lately to handle quite a bit of water, but
can't rule out training or overly slow-moving storms. One particular
cluster dropped well over an inch of rain in northern Harrison
County in Kentucky, but otherwise we haven't really approached FFG.

Storm chances will continue into the evening, mainly east of
Interstate 65 but anywhere is really fair game. Will carry a range
of 30-50 POPs, tapering down late in the evening.  Clearing skies
and nearly calm winds toward daybreak will set the stage for at
least patchy fog, possibly with more coverage and lower visibilities
anywhere that heavier rain falls.

For Wednesday, we'll see a slight decrease in humidity, but
dewpoints will still be solidly in the mid 60s which many people
will still find muggy. Heights will already be on the rise and the
center of high pressure will be building east across the Great
Lakes, limiting the southward push of cooler and drier air into our
area. Will carry a 20-30% chance for afternoon storms from the
Bluegrass region southward into south-central KY, and temps will run
just slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Updated at 222 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Dry northwest flow aloft will result in a rather mundane long-term
forecast. Precipitation chances will remain very low through the end
of the week as warm temperatures in the 800-700mb layer keep a cap
on most convection, except near the I-75 corridor where a couple of
rogue storms may be possible. Highs/lows will remain near
climatological normals. As we head into the late weekend to early
next week period, a couple of long range models hint at some weak
upper level disturbances dropping in from the northwest and
potentially sparking off some isolated to scattered storm activity.
Confidence in the timing and placement of these weak disturbances
remains low, so will continue to highlight the potential with low
PoP values.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 105 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Decent amount of moisture pooling near a slow-moving cold front will
fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Will
include VCTS across the board, though can't rule out an issuance
time decision to initialize dry at HNB if this action is suppressed
far enough south.  Greatest coverage around LEX, where we will carry
a TEMPO for IFR vis in heavy rain as well. Could see some gusty
winds in and near storms, but otherwise we'll have light west winds
and high-end MVFR ceilings.

Winds will go light/variable if not calm overnight, setting the
stage for fog. Have included a TEMPO for MVFR at SDF, with
prevailing IFR or MVFR at the others. Vis forecasts may need to be
adjusted, more likely down than up depending on where additional
rain falls this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...DM
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-311945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 /238 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening. The main
hazard will be brief heavy rainfall, which could result in localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS/DM

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