Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

The CWA sits in the middle of upper flow. The jet stream is north
of the Great Lakes. To the south, a large high over the Gulf of
Mexico has strong upper flow wrapping anticyclonically around it.
This is funneling moisture up the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. During this evening into tonight precipitable water
values in central Kentucky and southern Indiana will go above 2
inches. CAPE values have been increasing with diurnal heat with
mix layer values over 2,000 J/kg. At the same time a shortwave is
moving east through central Kentucky. With divergence aloft and
lots of moisture in the atmosphere, expecting more thunderstorm
and shower coverage through tonight.

On the plus side, the atmosphere has little shear, so storms will
have a hard time getting organized in a manner to produce large hail
or tornadoes. Widespread severe weather isn't expected. Pop up
storms are expected. Expect relatively short lived storm cells that
lift and collapse. These storms are capable of heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, and lightning. Lightning is not a reason for severe
thunderstorm warnings, but that doesn't mean it isn't dangerous.
Lightning will likely be the main hazard with these storms. These
storms have had a lot of lightning over the last few days.

Storms will thin a few hours after sunset, and by morning,
temperatures will be in the upper 60s outside Louisville, and around
70 in Louisville. Skies will go mostly sunny to allow for heating
before afternoon showers and thunderstorms fire up again with
little change in the synoptic flow.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Updated at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Upper ridging over the eastern CONUS will weaken Thu night and Fri
as low pressure moves across the south end of Hudson Bay. By
Saturday the weakness will be enough for a weak and slow-moving cold
front to drop into the Ohio Valley. POPs will increase to likely on
Friday and categorical on Saturday as the front hangs up across the
area, but do not believe storm coverage at any given time will match
how much of the area sees rain over a 6-12 hr period. Organized
severe wx isn't expected, but could see pulse storms with localized
heavy rainfall and gusty winds, not to mention frequent lightning.
Clouds and precip will modulate daytime temps, keeping most
locations out of the 90s, but lows will stay up near 70 if not a
little warmer.

The front will progress quite slowly for the rest of the weekend,
just enough to shift the focus for storms on Sunday into south-
central Kentucky. Best chance for dry weather will be Monday and
Tuesday as the front gets pushed into the Tennessee Valley and the
upper ridge noses in from the west. Slightly lower humidity is
expected with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, but not a wholesale
change in air mass, so we'll still have slight chance POPs across
south central Kentucky. By Wednesday temps will recover above climo
again with POPs back up to 20-30 percent.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Scattered showers are firing up across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. With a disturbance in the upper atmosphere moving across
central Kentucky, showers and storms will likely be more widespread
than the last few days. Expect all the TAF sites to be affected with
periods of lowering ceilings and reduced visibilities in areas of
heavy rain. Areas in the region will likely move quickly from VFR to
IFR or MVFR conditions and back again as storms pop up and collapse.
The environment doesn't have much wind energy, so well organized
long lived storms are not expected. Pop up storms with outflow
boundaries kicking up other short lived storms are expected. These
storms will likely cause gusts around 40 knots, heavy rainfall, and
lightning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
328 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
328 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 /228 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon
and evening. Any storm will be capable of producing torrential
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Patchy fog will be
possible in some areas overnight, especially in low-lying and river
valley areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the
week and into the holiday weekend. In general, look for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong
to severe at times with damaging winds, torrential rainfall and
frequent lightning being the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report strong winds, flooding, and any hail
this week.

KDW

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