Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
246 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Scattered to perhaps numerous storms forecast as we go into the
holiday "weekend". Focus for activity today so far has been on a
very weak disturbance aloft...but once those storms started, they
have congealed into a nice cluster over eastern KY and the WV/VA
border. Expect additional development across the rest of the region
as the afternoon goes on...but likely more of the disorganized
popcorn type variety. Watch for brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall
with this afternoon's storms.

After storms die down later tonight, look for a general repeat of
activity for Wednesday. Temperatures should be within a couple of
degrees of today's for highs, but rain chances may be a touch higher
as the day starts out with just a little more moisture in the
atmosphere.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Updated at 240 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Typical summertime weather will continue into the long term. The
ridge across the Southeast CONUS will help to deflect any
substantial upper level flow and systems and keep us rather warm and
muggy Thursday into Friday. Models hint at small perturbations
riding along the northern periphery of the ridge during this
timeframe, which could help spark scattered to widespread storms
during the afternoon hours. Localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds
will be possible in the stronger storms.

A very weak cold front will begin moving in from the north during
the weekend as the Southeast CONUS ridge loosens its grip on the
Ohio Valley. The front will serve as a focal point for convective
activity, particularly during the afternoon when surface heating is
at its greatest. Saturday looks to have better chances for showers
and storms vs Sunday, as the front will likely be south of the KY
border by Sunday afternoon. Deep layer shear doesn't increase all
that much during the weekend timeframe, but still could see some
localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds with the stronger storms.

High pressure settles over the Great Lakes by early next week, and
much drier conditions look to return to the Ohio Valley. Still can't
rule out isolated storms Monday/Tuesday, but most locations should
stay drier. Temperatures will remain warm post-frontal early next
week, but dewpoints may come down a few degrees to make the upper
80s and low 90s air temperatures a bit more manageable.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 110 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Focus for convection early this afternoon has been south of the KLEX
terminal, but seeing cloud fields building across the rest of the
area as well. Models are not handling current coverage of storms
well at all, so have gone with timing based on current trends. Will
amend as necessary. Expect brief gusty winds and IFR conditions with
the stronger cells, should they go over the terminals. Winds
generally will be from the southwest and west outside of those
cells.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...DM
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
249 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
249 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 /149 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into the evening
hours. Any storm will be capable of producing torrential rainfall,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Expect some isolated wind gusts
from stronger storms in the 40 to 60 mph range.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

An active weather pattern will continue this week and into the
weekend with chances for storms each day. Some storms could be
strong with gusty winds and dangerous lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report strong winds, flooding, and any hail
this week.

RJS/DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
436 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KYZ071-022200-
Warren-
436 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY...

At 436 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bowling Green.
The storm is nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Richardsville, Girkin and Anna.

LAT...LON 3703 8650 3714 8646 3709 8629 3700 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 216DEG 4KT 3705 8646

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
548 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KYZ042-022215-
Bourbon-
548 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL BOURBON COUNTY...

At 547 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Paris, moving
east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Sidville, Stony Point, Austerlitz and Escondida.

LAT...LON 3809 8420 3808 8422 3810 8433 3818 8433
      3817 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 282DEG 6KT 3812 8428

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
549 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KYZ036-037-043-022215-
Scott-Nicholas-Harrison-
549 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SCOTT...
NORTHERN NICHOLAS AND HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles west of Fairview to 10 miles
south of Williamstown. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cynthiana, Breckinridge, Berry, Alberta, Renaker, Ellisville,
Colville, Davis, Connersville and Barefoot.

LAT...LON 3835 8416 3837 8419 3835 8423 3834 8445
      3849 8456 3851 8449 3853 8448 3853 8418
      3850 8418 3850 8416 3849 8417 3848 8413
      3846 8410 3843 8400 3842 8400 3844 8397
      3842 8395 3837 8391 3836 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 327DEG 10KT 3848 8409 3849 8451

DM

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