Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
318 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.Forecast Update...
Issued 316 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

We've received multiple reports of +58mph wind gusts across the
region ahead of the line of storms, so have gone ahead and upgraded
parts of the wind advisory to a high wind warning through 22z. Rest
of forecast on track.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Ongoing strong to severe storms at this hour across portions of
southern Indiana and western/central Kentucky. Overall environment
so far has been conducive for supercellular storms capable of
tornadoes, large hail, and straight line damaging winds. Regional
satellite reveals breaks ahead of this line, indicating the
atmosphere should continue to destabilize and theoretically remain
favorable for strong to severe storms. High-res models have hinted
at some weakening in storms, particularly south of the Ohio River,
as we head into the late afternoon hours, before upticking in
strength again in central/eastern Kentucky by evening. Although
reasons for this are not entirely clear, satellite/radar trends for
storms generally south of the Ohio River have shown them struggling
a bit over the past hour, so the models may be on to something
despite increasing instability. That being said, will continue to
maintain the tornado watch for the current counties, with possible
extensions in duration and areal extent soon. Activity should push
out of the region by midnight.

The other story today has been the gusty winds. Gradient winds have
been pushing +50mph for many spots, and expect the strong winds to
continue through a good portion of the evening. As a result, have
extended the duration of the wind advisory to 03z tonight to account
for gusty wind potential.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the weekend as the
region remains at the base of a broad 500mb trough. A strong wave
within the base of the trough may impact the region Monday, bringing
light precipitation, but there's some differences in medium range
output so will keep PoPs low for now.

Dry weather then looks to persist into the mid week timeframe. A
cold front may swing through during the Thursday/Friday timeframe
and bring additional precipitation to the region.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 111 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

A line of strong to severe storms is currently ongoing across south-
central Indiana into western Kentucky. This line will slowly move to
the east through the afternoon, though some uncertainty remains as
to whether it will hold together or begin to break apart as some
models indicate some weakening. Regardless, will keep thunderstorms
in all TAF for a period this afternoon and evening. Gusty and
erratic winds will be possible in any thunderstorm.

Drier air will move in behind the line of storms and result in VFR
conditions, though a deck of stratus clouds may impact terminals
early tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for INZ090>092.

KY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ024>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Update...DM
Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-151900-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville,
Liberty, Stanford, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton,
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
258 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 /158 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to remain a threat this
afternoon and evening with damaging winds as the primary threat.
Tornadoes and hail are also possible. Heavy rainfall may result in
localized flooding.

Outside of thunderstorms, strong winds blowing from the south will
gust as high as 55 mph today. Winds of this magnitude can blow
around small items, topple weakly rooted trees, and make travel
difficult on east-west oriented roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any severe weather, strong winds, heavy
rainfall, or flooding impacts today.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>032-061-062-070>072-151900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Butler-Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, Morgantown, Brownsville, Russellville, Bowling Green,
Franklin, and Providence
258 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 /158 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 24 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to remain a threat this
afternoon and evening with damaging winds as the primary threat.
Tornadoes and hail are also possible. See the latest tornado watch
for more details. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding.

Outside of thunderstorms, strong winds blowing from the south will
gust as high as 55 mph today. Winds of this magnitude can blow
around small items, topple weakly rooted trees, and make travel
difficult on east-west oriented roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any severe weather, strong winds, heavy
rainfall, or flooding impacts today.

DM

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