River Flood Warning 56, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

A surface warm front is slowly working its way northward and is near
the I-64 corridor at this hour. Temperatures south of the front have
climbed as high as the mid 50s in south-central Kentucky, while
temperatures north of the front remain in the low to mid 40s.

The warm front has provided plenty of lift for widespread rain
showers and even a few embedded storms today. Some breaks in
precipitation have been observed to our west, though those have
filled in some with new showers developing. Instability parameters
are showing a slow increase in elevated instability, which should
continue into the evening as we become more engulfed in the warm
sector with a northward push of the warm front. PWATs will also
increase behind the front, and with elevated instability fueling
isolated to scattered storms, rain rates could become problematic
for flooding. We've already observed quite a bit of rain across
central Kentucky and southern Indiana today, so soils are quite
saturated and a good portion of the additional rainfall will likely
runoff into rivers, streams, and low lying areas. The exception to
this will be across south-central Kentucky where less rain has
fallen, though higher-rate rainfall is more likely here. Have gone
ahead with a flash flood watch across most of the region, which will
run through a majority of the overnight hours.

We'll also have to keep an eye out for a low-end severe threat. With
strong shear and weak elevated instability in place, we're likely to
see some organized convection. Fortunately, there is a modest
inversion in place that should mitigate the most of the strongest
winds from reaching the ground, though we can't rule out an isolated
strong to severe gust reaching the surface. Small hail will also be
possible in the stronger storms.

The precipitation should exit the region from west to east after
midnight as a cold front moves in. Winds will become gusty out of
the southwest behind the front, and remain gusty through the morning
hours. Most model soundings indicate gusts topping out in the 30-
35mph range tomorrow.

Our break from the precipitation will be short-lived as a large
upper level low will come barreling in from the northwest and
generate additional shower development. Temperatures will steadily
fall during the afternoon hours, and may fall enough in southern IN
and northern KY that we see rain transition to snow by sunset.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

Sunday Night - Monday...

A closed upper low with sub 530 heights will move from the southern
Great Lakes to the central Appalachians and off the mid Atlantic
coast Sunday night into Monday. As this is occurring, a cold front
will push through the area Sunday night with cold advection ongoing
through Monday. Surface temperatures will initially be in the mid to
upper 30s Sunday evening, however with steepening low to mid level
lapse rates and increasing precipitation, expect to see rain showers
change to more prominent snow showers as the overnight goes on.
Forecast soundings do show fairly impressive saturation at least up
into the bottom half of the DGZ, with steep low level lapse rates,
so anticipate that some snow showers could be of moderate intensity.

The tricky part will be that surface temps will be at or above
freezing for most of the time so it is going to be tough to tell how
much snow will accumulate. Expect that we will see some light accums
in spots where rates are more intense, and that it may melt quickly
after falling. In addition to the snow, gusty winds up over 30 mph
may be possible at times so visibilities may be reduced in the more
intense showers. The system quickly departs on Tuesday with
lingering clouds and struggling temperatures by the afternoon. Highs
likely won't get out of the upper 30s.

Monday - Saturday...

NW flow pattern flattens out through the middle of the week, so
we'll see quiet and cool weather Mon night through Thursday. An
upper wave passes overhead Tue night, but will be too moisture
starved for any precip. A fast-moving southern stream system will
scoot across the Deep South on Friday. Any impacts will be
determined by its ability to phase with the northern stream, so will
just hold onto low chance POPs for Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

Widespread MVFR to LIFR cigs, poor visibilities, and widespread rain
showers are being observed across the region this afternoon. A few
thunderstorms have been embedded in some of the showers, so VCTS has
been introduced for many of the TAF sites.

Expect the poor flying conditions and precipitation to continue
through the first half of the night. After midnight, a cold front
will sweep in from the west, and we'll see VFR cigs/vis quickly
return to the area. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest,
particularly after sunrise tomorrow morning where gusts near 30kts
will be possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Sunday for INZ076-
     077-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Sunday for
     KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
309 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

INZ076-077-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082-012015-
Orange-Washington-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Jasper, English, Tell City,
Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville,
Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown,
Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, New Castle, Shelbyville,
Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
309 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 /209 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ SUNDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A widespread one to three inches of rain have fallen across the
region today, saturating soils and preventing additional rain from
soaking into the ground effectively. Another round of showers with
isolated to scattered storms will be possible tonight and could
result in some flash flooding issues. Use caution if traveling at
night as flooding can be difficult to detect in a vehicle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Breezy conditions are expected Sunday, with gusts up to 35 mph
possible. Rain showers will also transition to snow showers by Sunday
night, and light snow accumulations will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encourage to report any flooding they encounter.

INZ078-079-KYZ032-012015-
Scott-Jefferson-Trimble-
Including the cities of Scottsburg, Madison, Bedford, and Milton
309 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Locally heavy rain is forecast this afternoon into tonight. Minor
flooding problems are expected in spots that collect water easily.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Breezy conditions are expected Sunday, with gusts up to 35 mph
possible. Rain showers will also transition to snow showers by Sunday
night, and light snow accumulations will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encourage to report any flooding they encounter.

DM

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