Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the region at this
hour. Recent look at thermodynamic fields show low level lapse rates
have steepened a bit since this morning, though mid level lapse
rates remain fairly marginal. This has resulted in a modest 1500-
2500 J/KG of SBCAPE across the Ohio Valley. Deep layer shear has
remained rather weak and not supportive of organized convection so
far. The main threats with storms over the next 2-3hrs will be heavy
rainfall as PWATs remain high. Storm motions seem to be moving fast
enough to keep flooding issues to a minimum, though training storms
could result in localized flooding.

A shortwave embedded within a low-amplitude trough will move toward
our region late this afternoon and evening and help spark more
widespread convection. Short-term guidance continues to show
potential for strong to severe storms during this window, as
instability/shear increase ahead of the shortwave. The main threat
with these storms will be damaging wind gusts, as storm mode will
likely take on some linear component by the time it arrives into the
area. Large hail will be possible in more discrete convection. While
unlikely, can't rule out an isolated tornado in any discrete
supercellular activity during the evening hours as the LLJ nudges in
from the southwest and increases low level shear/helicity.

Instability will gradually wane and low level CIN increase after
sunset, and as a result, storms should steadily weaken as they
progress eastward. Still appears the best chances for severe weather
will be along and west of the I-65 corridor, with the bulk of the
strong/severe action moving moving through our region between 6/19
23z -- 6/20 06z.

A weak cold front will pass through the region tomorrow morning.
While temperatures/dewpoints won't fall too much behind the front,
winds will pick up out of the west during the day. Model soundings
indicate little CIN, so isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible. Given the expected sparse coverage of
precipitation, along with low QPF amounts, have gone ahead and
changed the end time of the flash flood watch to 12z tomorrow
morning (vs 00z tomorrow evening).

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

After multiple rounds of showers and storms this week, we will
experience a short but much needed dry period for much of Friday, as
an upper level ridge builds in from the west. However, models
generally agree that an embedded shortwave in the NW flow aloft will
help initiate convection just to our northwest by Friday afternoon.
Models are currently suggesting that this convection could grow
upscale into a forward propagating mesoscale convective system (MCS)
over IL and IN before moving SE into our area Friday evening along a
sharp moderate/strong instability gradient. SREF probs show high
likelihood of at least 2000 J/KG of ML CAPE, with chances at more
than 3000 J/KG. Either would be sufficient for MCS maintenance,
especially if the cold pool is already established. Speaking of the
cold pool, model fields actually show a strong high pressure
immediately behind the bowing segment, coupled with a wake low.
Given the fact that GFS/NAM both show this feature, confidence is
higher that we could see an impactful organized convective feature
move into the area. Timing/placement will still be in question, but
that can be resolved with time. Given high expected DCAPE values and
steep lapse rates, data suggests that wind damage would be the main
threat. Aside from wind damage, localized flooding will also be
possible, especially in any area where heavy rain falls over already
saturated grounds.

The warm front will continue to lift through our region Saturday as
the upper level ridge continues to build overhead. Expect temps to
climb into the mid to upper 80s as our area becomes positioned in
the moist and humid warm sector. While model soundings show a
subsidence inversion and minimal forcing, residual storms and
showers are not completely out of the question. This will ultimately
depend on how fast the warm front pushes through and/or gets "hung"
up in our area. Some forecast soundings show extreme instability
(MUCAPE values more than 4000 J/KG and LI's -15C) due to very steep
low and mid level lapse rates. So, if any storms are able to
overcome the subsidence inversion, watch out for a large
hail/damaging wind threat. Just keep in mind that threat is
conditional upon actually triggering and overcoming the expected
inversion.

Aside from an isolated diurnal shower or so, Sunday and Monday look
to be relatively dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s as the upper
level ridge continues to dominate our region. Conditions will become
unsettled by Monday as an approaching trough axis moves into our
region from the west. However, this system will not be long lived,
so dry conditions should return by mid week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 117 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Any TAF sites that are
impacted by these showers/storms will see briefly reduced
visibilities and gusty winds. More widespread storms will move into
the region starting this evening and continue well into the
overnight hours. Confidence in the placement and timing of these
storms has increased to include TEMPO groups in the TAF.

Most shower/storm activity should taper down by 06z. Models develop
some IFR/MVFR stratus in the wake of the widespread showers/storms,
though the southward extent of it remains in question. The stratus
will likely persist for several hours after sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KYZ025-029>043-
     047>049-055>057.

&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...SSC
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ025-029>043-047>049-055>057-201930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Meade-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Mercer-Jessamine-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Brandenburg, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton,
New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Danville, Lancaster,
and Richmond
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 /224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could produce
damaging winds, torrential rainfall, lightning, and possibly a
tornado tonight. Flash flooding could occur with any repeated rounds
of heavy rain over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional storms are possible Thursday through Tuesday. Heavy rain
and localized flooding will be the main threats, though strong to
severe storms may be possible Friday evening and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather
Service.

KYZ023-024-026>028-045-046-053-054-061>067-070>078-081-082-201930-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Nelson-Washington-Larue-
Marion-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Springfield,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 /224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could produce
damaging winds, torrential rainfall, lightning, and possibly a
tornado tonight. Flash flooding could occur with any repeated rounds
of heavy rain over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional storms are possible Thursday through Tuesday. Heavy rain
and localized flooding will be the main threats, though strong to
severe storms may be possible Friday evening and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather
Service.

DM/SSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KYZ023-192015-
Hancock-
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 247 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Knottsville,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hawesville, Petri, Goering, Weberstown, Pellville, Arrington Corner,
Floral, Dukes, Patesville and Chambers.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3796 8680 3781 8667 3779 8668 3775 8682
      3779 8682 3782 8684 3784 8685 3784 8688
      3783 8690 3784 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 226DEG 20KT 3779 8684

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
436 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

INZ084-089-090-KYZ024-025-192100-
Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Meade-Breckinridge-
436 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...EAST CENTRAL PERRY...NORTHWESTERN MEADE AND
NORTHERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES...

At 436 PM EDT/336 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles
south of Carefree Town, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Corydon, Leavenworth, Alton, New Amsterdam, Roberta, Concordia,
Lodale, Battletown, Fredonia and Derby.

Brief torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3798 8637 3804 8659 3829 8628 3818 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 229DEG 36KT 3805 8642

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
504 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

INZ084-090-192130-
Crawford-Harrison-
504 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HARRISON AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 504 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Carefree Town,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milltown, Leavenworth, Moberly, White Cloud, Depauw, Fairdale,
Central Barren, Wyandotte, Ramsey and Frenchtown.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3836 8605 3816 8626 3816 8630 3817 8632
      3820 8635 3842 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 202DEG 25KT 3824 8627

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
526 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

INZ078-092-192200-
Clark-Scott-
526 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

At 525 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Scottsburg, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Otisco, Nabb and Henryville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3863 8557 3861 8557 3851 8571 3855 8577
      3867 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 218DEG 11KT 3856 8569

SCHOETTMER

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