Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
330 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler Monday with gusty northerly winds. Occasional
snow flurries Monday and Tuesday. Travel will be impacted Tuesday
evening through at least Thursday morning due to moderate to
locally heavy snowfall. Lighter snow shower activity lingers
Thursday afternoon through Friday night, with extended travel
impacts possible across central NV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Strong northwesterly flow
is approaching NV this evening. By early Monday morning a cold
front will pass over northern NV, which will pass through central
NV by early Monday evening. Winds will approach advisory criteria
over eastern Elko County Monday morning. Later Monday morning and
through the afternoon hours winds across northwestern Nye County,
including the Tonopah area, are expected to reach low end
advisory levels. A wind advisory is in effect from 8AM to 4PM
Monday with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph
expected. Along and behind the cold front passage snow levels will
lower to valley floors with light snow showers possible through
Tuesday afternoon. Mountains across Elko County may see a couple
to a few inches of new snow by Tuesday afternoon, otherwise little
to no accumulations are expected.

Shortwave energy embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft begins
to carve out a trough off the Pacific NW coast early Tuesday. By
Tuesday afternoon the trough becomes a closed low centered just
off the southern OR coast. The approaching low pressure center
will back the flow over NV to a zonal direction by Tuesday
afternoon, which becomes southwesterly later Tuesday evening.
Snow shower activity increases Tuesday evening through Wednesday
across northern and central NV as the upper level low to our west
continues to deepen. Models are not in agreement with the timing
and track of the upper level low and as such there are
discrepancies with respect to snow amounts during the mid-week
timeframe. There is however moderate confidence with winter storm
snowfall amounts across much of central NV which will begin
Tuesday night. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Northern
Nye, White Pine, and the southern portions of Lander and Eureka
counties which begins at 4am Wednesday where valley locations
currently look to receive between 5 and 10 inches of new snow by
4am Thursday. Lighter snow accumulations of roughly 1 to 6 inches
are expected across northern NV which may require a Winter
Weather Advisory. This will be addressed on Monday along with
likely upgrades to the Winter Storm Watch, at which time
confidence should be higher with respect to snow amounts and
timing.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Saturday. A significant
winter storm will continue to bring travel impacts to northern and
central Nevada at the start of the long term period. Anomalously
deep 500 mb upper low will be situated across northern California
and southwest Oregon Wednesday night into Thursday. Models have
been consistent in depicting a mesoscale snow band across portions
of northeast Nye and White Pine counties, which could be the focus
for moderate snow. Further north, light snow showers are expected
across the I-80 corridor. Overnight lows will be generally be in
the teens to maybe low 20s at all locations.

Upper low will be wobbling slowly to the east for Thanksgiving.
This will result in snow showers mainly over much of the forecast
area. Accumulations are forecast to remain light with a trace to
two inches possible during the day into the overnight hours, with
the higher amounts favoring the US Highway 50 corridor. Afternoon
highs will be quite chilly and be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Clouds and light snow showers will continue through the evening
with the upper low transiting northern Nevada. Overnight lows will
be in the single digits to teens.

Cold, northwest flow will be prevalent on Friday with some light
showers possible with limited accumulations. Some breezes are
expected during the day with highs only reaching the mid to upper
20s in many locations. If we clear out Friday night, it would be a
very cold night. Current forecast depicts a relatively cold
solution due to the snowpack and clearing skies with readings in
the single digits to below zero.

Quieter weather can be expected for Saturday with the cold weather
continuing. Highs will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist through the early morning
hours tomorrow. However, a weak weather system will move through
from the north, bringing light snow showers and reductions to
CIGS/VSBY. MVFR/locally IFR conditions are possible in the heavier
showers, mainly across KEKO and KELY terminals. Mountains will see
obscurations as well. Winds behind the frontal system will be
strong, especially at KTPH, with sustained winds of 25-30KT and
gusts to 40KT expected.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through late
Wednesday night for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye
County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-White
Pine County.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for Northwestern Nye
County.

&&

96/86/86

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