Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
426 AM PST Sun Feb 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A series of cold weather systems will track across
Nevada for the next few days. Expect periods of light rain or snow
showers today with the snow level around 5000 feet. More unsettled
weather on Monday with periodic snow showers. A stronger storm
system moves across Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing the
possibility of significant snow accumulations to the entire
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

Remnants of potent short wave tracks across northern Nevada
today. This will bring additional rain and snow showers across the
region today, although the best chance of precipitation will be
Humboldt and Elko counties. Next Pacific wave west of California
gets pushed east across Nevada tonight and Monday. Expect snow
showers to expand its areal coverage this afternoon and evening.
The best accumulations are expected over northern Elko County and
the Rubies, where winter weather advisories have been issued. With
respect to White Pine county, southerly gusty winds in advance of
this wave keeps relatively mild conditions tonight and Monday
morning. Hourly guidance shows 40s during the overnight hours at
Ely.

The real eye catcher is the strong cold trough that is currently
along the southern British Columbia coast and progged to drop
southward, reaching the northern California coast by Monday
evening. Models begin to diverge on the eastward speed as it
transitions to an open wave. There is no question that there will
be winter weather impacts as the cold core tracks across northern
Nevada. With the deepest moisture and upper level jet positioned
over east central Nevada, have elected to issue a Winter Storm
Watch for White Pine county. Colder air filters into east central
Nevada once Monday’s short wave moves into Utah. Accumulating
snowfall is expected throughout northern/central Nevada on
Tuesday, so expect additional winter weather highlights as
forecast confidence improves regarding timing and snow amounts.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday.

The models are in good agreement for the long term period. One
storm system will be exiting, ushering in a brief mainly dry
period. Then another low pressure trough will move through late in
the week.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This will be an unsettled
period. The next low pressure trough will move through the Great
Basin. With cold air already in place, snow showers are expected
with some light amounts of accumulation. White Pine County could
receive a few inches of new snow in the valleys as the front drags
through.

Thursday through Saturday. This may very well be a dry period for
much of the area since there will be a shortwave ridge moving
over the state behind the exiting trough. However there could be
some showers across northern Nevada in the diffluent flow aloft as
another trough of low pressure stands poised to move into the
western CONUS. There is still a little discrepancy within the
models by next weekend. It appears there will be several weak
waves of energy spinning off the low while it sits near the
California coast. Each of these waves could bring some showers to
northern Nevada and the mean trough may not move through Nevada
until late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions today will remain unstable with some showers
at times, though CIGs and VIS is expected to go no lower than MVFR
during showers. Precipitation type should be snow in the morning
and rain or a rain/snow mix in the afternoon, though forecast
confidence in precipitation type is low for today. High
confidence, however, that snow level, CIGS, and VIS will drop
beginning Sunday night as the next system begins to move in.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon PST
Monday for Northern Elko County.

Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon PST Monday for
Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

&&

88/90/90

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